2026-09-15 21:30｜4条事实：COMEX金银分级库存、利比亚油田停产与沙特取消装船

{ "schema_version": "precious_metals_event_stream/v1", "coverage_window": { "from_utc": "2026-09-15T12:30:00Z", "to_utc": "2026-09-15T13:38:00Z", "mode": "夜盘增量", "basis": "上一次运行以来" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "CME-AU-20260911-comex-gold-depository-flat", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "COMEX 黄金注册库存持平于 15120219 盎司", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T19:04:28Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0 }, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "CME Commodity Exchange, Inc. 金属仓库统计 METAL DEPOSITORY STATISTICS - GOLD（单位：金衡盎司 Troy Ounce），报告日 2026-09-14、活动日 2026-09-11：TOTAL REGISTERED 15,120,219.224（前值 15,120,219.224）；TOTAL PLEDGED 1,736,658.857；TOTAL ELIGIBLE 12,228,297.319（前值 12,228,297.319）；COMBINED TOTAL 27,348,516.543（前值 27,348,516.543）。注册、合格与合计库存当日的收到（Received）、提出（Withdrawn）、净变动（Net Change）、调整（Adjustment）均记为 0.000；ASAHI、BRINK'S、DELAWARE、HSBC、INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE、JP MORGAN CHASE、LOOMIS、MANFRA、STONEX、TEXAS PRECIOUS METALS 等逐库房净变动亦均为 0.000，分库房逐项加总与合计行一致（15,120,219.224 加 12,228,297.319 等于 COMBINED TOTAL 27,348,516.543）。原文日期为 2026-09-11。", "transmission_chain": "CME 仓库统计显示 COMEX 黄金注册（可交割）库存与合格（eligible）库存当日净变动均为 0.000、合计维持 27,348,516.543 盎司 → 可交割仓单数量与可转为注册仓单的库存缓冲双双不变 → 对黄金 AU 的库存端方向判定为中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若下一份报告（活动日 2026-09-14）显示黄金注册库存或合格库存出现非零净变动，或出现合格转注册的结构调整，则本次库存端中性的判定作废。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "CME-AG-20260911-comex-silver-eligible-down-970105", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "COMEX 白银合格库存减 970105 盎司，注册持平", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-14T19:05:27Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "CME Commodity Exchange, Inc. 金属仓库统计 METAL DEPOSITORY STATISTICS - SILVER（单位：金衡盎司 Troy Ounce），报告日 2026-09-14、活动日 2026-09-11：TOTAL REGISTERED 95,864,113.451（前值 95,864,113.451，净变动 0.000）；TOTAL ELIGIBLE 240,407,560.244（前值 241,377,665.679，收到 581,259.112、提出 1,551,364.547、净变动 -970,105.435）；COMBINED TOTAL 336,271,673.695（前值 337,241,779.130，净变动 -970,105.435）。分库房合格库存变动：JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 由 127,107,097.213 降至 125,795,196.313（提出 1,311,900.900、净变动 -1,311,900.900）；CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 由 7,339,522.857 降至 7,124,805.710（提出 214,717.147、净变动 -214,717.147）；ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 由 14,397,982.650 升至 14,954,495.262（收到 581,259.112、净变动 +556,512.612）；其余库房当日无变动；三项变动加总等于合计净变动 -970,105.435。原文日期为 2026-09-11。", "transmission_chain": "COMEX 白银合格（eligible）库存单日减少 970,105.435 盎司（约 30.2 吨）、主要来自 JP MORGAN CHASE 与 CNT 两库房的提出，而注册（可交割）库存持平于 95,864,113.451 盎司 → 仓库内可转为交割仓单的库存缓冲变薄、可交割仓单数量未增加 → 对白银 AG 的实物缓冲面构成轻微偏紧信号。", "invalidation_conditions": "若下一份报告（活动日 2026-09-14）显示白银合格库存回升至 241,377,665.679 盎司上方，或注册库存出现明显增加，则本次缓冲偏紧的判定作废。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "CLS-AUAG-20260915-libya-three-oil-fields-halt", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "利比亚三座油田停产，输油管道阀门被关闭", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-15T13:22:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 0 }, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "财联社 2026-09-15 21:22 快讯：利比亚国家石油公司（NOC）表示，石油设施警卫队的一支队伍于周二（2026-09-15）关闭了哈马达-扎维耶（Hamada-Zawiya）输油管道的阀门，目前三座油田已停产并暂停运营。原文日期为 2026-09-15。", "transmission_chain": "利比亚国家石油公司称哈马达-扎维耶输油管道阀门被关闭、三座油田停产 → 原油供给端再出现停产量，油价与通胀预期受支撑并带来避险买盘，而通胀预期升温又强化本周美联储加息定价 → 避险渠道与利率渠道方向相反，对黄金 AU 与白银 AG 的净方向判定为中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若该管道阀门重新开启、三座油田恢复生产，或布伦特原油回落至 100 美元/桶下方，则本事件的供给与避险传导判定作废。", "source_urls": [ "https://m.cls.cn/telegraph" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "CLS-AUAG-20260915-saudi-cancels-september-loadings", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "沙特因管道关闭取消原定 9 月装船原油", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-15T13:33:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 0 }, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "财联社 2026-09-15 21:33 快讯：沙特阿拉伯据悉已通知部分欧洲炼油厂，由于东西管道（East-West Pipeline）关闭，原定 9 月装船的原油货物已被取消。原文日期为 2026-09-15。", "transmission_chain": "沙特通知部分欧洲炼油厂取消原定 9 月装船货物、东西管道关闭开始传导至现货贸易环节 → 中短期原油供给缺口具象化、油价与通胀预期获支撑，避险买盘受益而加息定价同步被强化 → 两条渠道相互抵消，对黄金 AU 与白银 AG 当日净方向判定为中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若沙特东西管道恢复运行、被取消的 9 月装船货物恢复交付，或布伦特原油回落至 100 美元/桶下方，则本事件的供给传导判定作废。", "source_urls": [ "https://m.cls.cn/telegraph" ], "source_tier": "B" } ] }