
2026-08-19 08:30|金价收报4344.82美元,长端收益率仍高
覆盖18:30—00:30 UTC窗口,记录金价收报、美国长端收益率、联储加息概率、美元与油价更新,并标记ETF、交易所库存和TIPS窗口缺口。
{
"window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T18:30:00Z",
"window_end_utc": "2026-08-19T00:30:00Z",
"events": [
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260818-gold-close-2043",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "现货黄金收报 4344.82 美元/盎司",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"spot_gold": {
"price": 4344.82,
"unit": "USD/oz",
"change_pct": -1.61
},
"reported_context": "美国长期国债收益率处于多年高位,中东冲突风险推升通胀担忧。"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国长端收益率高位并叠加能源供给风险→无息黄金的持有机会成本与加息压力上升→现货黄金收报 4344.82 美元/盎司。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若后续美国长端收益率持续回落并推动现货黄金回升至本次收盘价上方,当前短线利空传导状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-us30y-yield-2043",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "美国 30 年期收益率报 5.2922%",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"us_30_year_treasury_yield": {
"last_pct": 5.2922,
"unit": "%",
"change_basis_points": -1.78,
"intraday_high_pct": 5.3371,
"high_context": "2007 年以来最高水平"
}
},
"transmission_chain": "美国 30 年期收益率报 5.2922%且盘中触及 5.3371%→长期无风险收益率抬高金银持有机会成本→AU 与 AG 承压。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若美国 30 年期收益率持续跌破 5.2922%并带动金银收复本窗口跌幅,当前长端收益率压力传导状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-us10y-yield-2043",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "美国 10 年期收益率报 4.712%",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"us_10_year_treasury_yield": {
"last_pct": 4.712,
"unit": "%",
"change_basis_points": -1.2,
"intraday_high_pct": 4.7478,
"high_context": "2025 年 1 月以来最高水平"
}
},
"transmission_chain": "美国 10 年期收益率报 4.712%且盘中触及 4.7478%→中期无风险收益率维持高位→AU 与 AG 的利率敏感估值承压。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若美国 10 年期收益率持续回落并伴随美元走弱、金银价格收复本窗口跌幅,当前中期收益率压力状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-fed-hike-pricing-2043",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "9 月加息概率 35%,12 月前为 69%",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"september_2026_fed_hike_probability_pct": 35,
"hike_probability_by_december_2026_pct": 69,
"unit": "%"
},
"transmission_chain": "市场仍定价 2026 年内加息概率→未来政策利率与收益率路径预期偏高→AU 与 AG 的持有机会成本上升。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 FOMC 会议纪要或后续官方数据显著降低 9 月及年内加息概率,当前利率路径压力状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-dollar-index-2043",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "美元指数升至 99.67",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"dollar_index": {
"level": 99.67,
"unit": "index points",
"change_pct": 0.13
}
},
"transmission_chain": "美元指数升至 99.67→美元计价贵金属对非美元持有者的购买成本上升→AU 与 AG 短线承压。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若美元指数持续回落并伴随金银美元计价价格收复本窗口跌幅,当前美元压力传导状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-oil-settlement-2043",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"title": "布伦特结算报 91.02 美元/桶",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_report_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T20:43:22.907Z",
"brent": {
"settlement_price": 91.02,
"unit": "USD/barrel",
"change": 0.15,
"change_unit": "USD/barrel",
"change_pct": 0.17
},
"us_west_texas_intermediate": {
"settlement_price": 84.94,
"unit": "USD/barrel",
"change": 0.44,
"change_unit": "USD/barrel",
"change_pct": 0.52
},
"reported_context": "伊朗称采取更进攻姿态且霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭,美国排除延长停火。"
},
"transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹通行与美伊停火前景恶化→能源供给风险推高油价并强化通胀压力→金银面临更高的加息与持有机会成本。",
"invalidation_conditions": "若美伊停火延长、霍尔木兹恢复稳定通行并使布伦特回吐 91.02 美元/桶附近的本次涨幅,当前能源通胀传导状态失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
],
"coverage_gaps": [
{
"coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮改查 SSGA 官方 GLD 产品页和 iShares 官方 SLV 产品页。GLD 页面显示基金数据截至 2026-08-18,但未返回带窗口内发布时间证据的黄金实物持仓变动;SLV 页面显示 2026-08-18 NAV 为 58.82 美元、单日 NAV 变动为-0.47 美元,但未返回窗口内白银实物持仓变动。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-gld)](https://ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-gld))",
"[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))"
]
},
{
"coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮改查 CME Metals Issues and Stops Report 官方入口,页面返回 403,未取得 2026-08-18 至 2026-08-19 窗口内 registered/eligible 分项库存数字。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html))"
]
},
{
"coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮改查上金所 2026-08-19 每日行情官方入口,返回每日行情 HTML 页面但未返回窗口内可读取的库存、仓单或出入库表格数据。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-19&end_date=2026-08-19"
]
},
{
"coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报",
"status": "unverified",
"attempted_route": "本轮改查上期所中文周度数据入口,页面返回 404,未取得窗口内 AU 或 AG 仓单数字。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/weeklydata/"
]
},
{
"coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率(TIPS)曲线",
"status": "late_discovery_outside_window",
"attempted_route": "本轮改查美国财政部官方 Real Yield XML 入口,返回 2026-08-18 曲线行:5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 为 2.10%/2.24%/2.41%/2.81%/3.03%,该入口更新时间为 2026-08-18T15:54:18Z,早于本窗口起点 2026-08-18T18:30:00Z,因此未将其作为本窗口事件;本窗口未发现新的 TIPS 曲线行。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"
]
}
]
}

贵金属结构化事件流
把影响黄金白银的场外事件压缩成严格 JSON 事实流,供程序化交易系统消费;不含技术分析与操作建议。
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