Geopolitical Briefing: Hormuz Closure, Helium Ban, SCS Law

1. Iran widens Gulf strikes and says Hormuz is closed

• U.S. and Iranian forces traded heavy missile and drone attacks, with Tehran targeting U.S.-linked facilities across Gulf states on Sunday. 1
• The strikes reached Qatar and the United Arab Emirates; Qatar said three people were injured by falling shrapnel, while the UAE said its air defenses engaged Iranian missiles and drones. 1
• Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority said passage through the Strait of Hormuz was not currently possible, while the U.S. said traffic was still flowing through an expanded southern route near Oman. 1

2. China's helium export ban hits the chip supply chain

• China said Friday it was temporarily blocking exports of helium, a gas used in semiconductor manufacturing and MRI cooling. 3
• The Commerce Ministry and customs agency said the ban took effect immediately under China's Foreign Trade Law, but did not give a detailed reason. 3
• Nikkei cited Trivium China estimates that China produces 15% or less of its own helium and imports much of it from Qatar, which accounts for roughly one-third of global supply. 3

3. Ukraine extends its strike campaign into Russian oil logistics

• Ukraine struck oil depots in Russia's Tver and Stavropol regions overnight into Thursday, while drones set two oil tankers ablaze in the Sea of Azov, regional officials said. 4
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces also hit a reserve fuel storage facility about 800 km from the front line and an oil-pumping station in Ufa nearly 1,500 km from Ukraine's border. 4
• Russia's defense ministry said its air defenses downed 73 Ukrainian drones from late Wednesday to early Thursday; Ukraine said Russia fired 94 long-range drones and two ballistic missiles overnight. 4

4. South China Sea ruling gets a coordinated reaffirmation

• The U.S., the U.K. and 12 other Western and Asian countries said China's expansive South China Sea claims are illegal under the 2016 arbitration ruling. 5
• The EU issued a separate statement calling the ruling a landmark decision in peaceful dispute settlement, while Beijing again rejected the ruling as null and void. 5
• The 14-nation statement opposed the use of coast guard, military and maritime militia forces to harass or obstruct lawful operations at sea or in the air. 5

5. Taiwan turns Kinmen patrols into diplomatic signaling

• Taiwan took seven foreign lawmakers and two Taiwanese legislators on a 90-minute Coast Guard tour around the Kinmen islands, directly facing China's Xiamen and Quanzhou. 6
• China's Coast Guard began regular patrols around Kinmen in 2024 and has also patrolled waters off Taiwan's east coast since last month, drawing concern from the U.S., Britain, France and Germany. 6
• Taiwan's Coast Guard said Chinese ships made one of their regular incursions into Kinmen waters the day before the lawmakers' tour; Reuters reported that encounters usually involve radio exchanges and verbal warnings. 6