A tanker struck in Hormuz, $24bn of F-35s to Riyadh, and five geopolitical signals for September 18, 2026

Five current developments across the commercial agenda of the Trump-Xi summit, Russia's Yaroslavl refinery outage in a record diesel market, Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, US arms and diplomacy toward Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan Strait activity, with the market and supply-chain exposure of each.

US-China Trade: A Business Delegation Takes Shape for Xi's Washington Visit

Washington and Beijing are finalising a group of Chinese business leaders to travel with President Xi Jinping, three sources said, with final invitations going out in the coming days and the State Department expected to clear US visas for the delegation. BYD, Xiaomi, CATL, Gotion, Hisense, Wanxiang Group and Bank of China are among the companies under consideration, and the companies have been told to prepare pending confirmation at a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng this weekend 1.
One source said Xi plans to bring companies that already face US sanctions, blacklists or other regulatory pressure, mirroring Trump's May delegation of Micron, Qualcomm and Illumina executives. CATL and BYD were added to a Pentagon list over alleged military links in January 2025 and June 2026, Gotion is suing a Michigan township over its blocked $2.36 billion EV-components plant, and Wanxiang paid more than $53 million in December to settle a US customs case. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang and OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman are also due at a White House state dinner 1.
The stated US objectives are an agreement on a Board of Trade, additional rare-earth export licences for American firms and an extension of the trade truce reached last October in South Korea, with expectations for the visit described as modest 1. The commodity files in play span all three. US agricultural exports to China reached $29 billion in 2024, led by soybeans, and Beijing is on track to meet a 25 million metric ton annual soybean commitment that still runs against a final 10% tariff left over from the trade war; China's purchases of US oil and gas halted last year after levies of 10% to 15%, and Bloomberg reported energy tariffs could sit inside a $30 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts; US aerospace and chipmaking firms still report difficulty securing rare-earth material even as more of it flows 2.

Market and Supply-Chain Impact: The delegation list is itself the supply-chain signal: nearly every name on it carries an unresolved US regulatory file. A Biden-era rule bars China-linked manufacturers from selling new connected passenger vehicles in the US from model year 2027, Washington levies a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, and US automakers have pressed Trump against opening the market while Trump said last week he would support Chinese companies building cars in the US 1. For buyers, the two deliverables that would change a schedule rather than a headline are rare-earth export licences and an agricultural waiver on that remaining 10% tariff; Chinese LNG buyers are still taking US cargoes under long-term contracts and reselling them, which means a tariff cut would restore trading margins before it restored delivered volumes 2.

Russia-Ukraine: Yaroslavl Refinery Halts as Diesel Prices Set Records

Russia's Slavneft Yaroslavnefteorgsintez (YANOS) refinery halted crude processing on Thursday after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged equipment, four industry sources said. Yaroslavl's regional governor, Mikhail Yevrayev, said 65 drones were downed, that the refinery sustained damage and that fires were being extinguished, with no casualties 3.
The strike damaged the plant's AVT-3 primary crude distillation unit, which has a capacity of 17,140 metric tons a day and accounts for about 40% of the refinery's processing capacity. A second unit, AVT-4, was already under repair after an August 28 drone strike. YANOS has a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels a day; in 2024 it ran 14.9 million tons of crude, producing 2.6 million tons of gasoline and 4.0 million tons of diesel, and its fuel was not offered for sale on Russia's domestic commodity exchange on Thursday 3.
The outage lands in a diesel market short of refining rather than crude. Half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries had sharply cut output or shut by September, and combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf have fallen by roughly two-thirds from 2025 levels. European diesel futures hit a record $210 a barrel this week, US retail diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time, and the US average gasoline price sits near $4.40. US distillate inventories are at their lowest for this time of year since at least 1982, and the International Energy Agency expects global refinery throughput to average 81.5 million barrels a day in 2026 against about 84 million in 2025 4. Trump has pressed Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop striking Russian diesel output and said both sides agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure; strikes continued on both sides, with Ukraine hitting the Syzran refinery and Russia damaging gas stations in Kyiv and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia 5.

Market and Supply-Chain Impact: With AVT-3 damaged and AVT-4 already down, two of the Yaroslavl refinery's three distillation units are out, accounting for about 73% of its processing capacity on the source figures, and Russia's July ban on diesel exports is still routing domestic barrels away from the export market. Repair is the slow variable here: industrial equipment is scarce, sanctions restrict replacement parts, and reconstruction work across the Middle East is competing for the same engineering capacity 4. Diesel carries more of the freight, farm and construction cost base than gasoline does — economist Joel Prakken puts it at around 70% of intermediate fuel use in the US — and Societe Generale calculates that pump prices today are consistent with Brent near $190 a barrel rather than $105, which is the gap between this and a crude-supply story 4.

Middle East Shipping: Iran Says It Struck a Tanker as Hormuz Traffic Stays in Single Digits

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said its navy struck a Togo-flagged oil tanker, the Trend, for what it called an "illegal attempt" to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state broadcasters reported. The Associated Press could not immediately confirm the report. The Guard's navy warned that unauthorised passage would end in the "destruction" of offending vessels 6. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a ship "security incident" 16 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, overnight, with the crew safe and no environmental damage confirmed 6.
Four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from six a day earlier and below the 10-day average of about 16, with three entering the Gulf and one leaving, according to preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data taken at 0200 GMT. The day's traffic was two Panamax tankers, one Supramax and one Kamsarmax vessel. Twenty-three commodity vessels transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday against a 10-day average of about 26 7.
Saudi Arabia has sold about 60 million barrels of crude from its Ras Tanura port inside the Strait of Hormuz for loading by ship-to-ship transfer at Oman's port of Sohar across September and October, trade sources said, with Chinese and South Korean refiners among the biggest buyers and some volumes going to India and Japan 8. Brent crude fell $2.30, or 2.2%, to $102.53 a barrel by 0636 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to $100.04, a third consecutive daily decline that puts Brent on course for its first weekly loss in three 9.

Market and Supply-Chain Impact: The binding constraint has moved from crude to routes and loadings. Satellite analysis shows three pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline were damaged in the September 11 attack — one more than previously assessed, with a repair timeline the sources put between five and six weeks, while another said partial pumping could resume sooner 10. Saudi Arabia has blamed drones launched from Iraq, and Iraq has removed the operations commander in Maysan province and opened an investigation 11. That line had been moving 4 million to 5 million barrels a day, or 4% to 5% of global supply, while Hormuz was largely shut, and with loadings at Yanbu pegged back, Aramco has been shopping for thousands of tons of diesel in the Mediterranean 12. Diverting Saudi oil through the Suez Canal and around Africa adds about 30 days to sailing times and raises transport costs, according to Energy Aspects director Richard Bronze 11.

Middle East War: Washington Clears F-35s for Riyadh as Trump Heads to the UN

The State Department approved a sale of 48 F-35 fighters and 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines to Saudi Arabia, a package valued at $24.3 billion. Congress has 30 days to scrutinise or attempt to block it. Saudi Arabia is the largest customer for US weapons, and the sale would put its fleet level with Israel's 50 jets; Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi warned it "could put the crown jewels of American military technology within reach of the Chinese Communist Party" 13 14.
Trump addresses the UN General Assembly on Tuesday with the war in its seventh month and most European and Asian allies having spurned his requests for assistance. No US-Iran talks have been held since an interim agreement reached in June collapsed within weeks, an Iranian delegation will be able to attend, and Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines 15. South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, said his government is weighing whether to expand the operations of its Cheonghae naval unit in the Gulf of Aden to protect Korean ships and oil routes while declining to send troops into the conflict 6.
Damage inside the kingdom is mounting. Debris from an intercepted Houthi drone killed one person and wounded two in Taif province, Saudi civil defence said 16. Houthi forces hold Yemen's Red Sea coast and the islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway carrying some 12% of world trade in peacetime, and the defence pact Saudi Arabia signed with Turkey and Pakistan has yet to draw a Saudi request for support, officials from both countries said. Trump has declined to commit US forces directly against the Houthis 17.

Market and Supply-Chain Impact: The F-35 decision puts a dated step into Western defence procurement: a 30-day congressional review window that opens this week, a package built around 48 aircraft that list at roughly $82.5 million each in the F-35A configuration, and Lockheed Martin as prime contractor 13. The energy angle is the escort and insurance picture around Saudi export routes: Washington is expanding arms sales to Riyadh in the same week it declined to join the fighting, the US has met Houthi representatives in Oman who said they were targeting Saudi shipping and not American vessels, and the Bab el-Mandeb crossing counts in the shipping section above are the daily measure of how that arrangement is holding 7 15.

Taiwan Strait: A First Multi-Drone Exercise, Then 28 Sorties in a Day

Taiwan's military ran its first joint combat exercise using multiple types of attack drones this week, in a three-day drill in the far south of the island that also included launches of domestically developed Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles and Lockheed Martin HIMARS rockets, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday. The presidential office named no drone types and released only images of the missiles. Lai was accompanied by Defence Minister Wellington Koo and by Kuan Bi-ling, who heads the Ocean Affairs Council, the agency that runs Taiwan's Coast Guard 18.
"This marks the first time the military has incorporated multiple types of attack drones into joint combat exercises," Lai said, adding that "the coordinated use of unmanned vehicles with conventional weapons reflects the adaptation to modern warfare" 18.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 28 PLA aircraft sorties, seven PLA Navy ships and two Chinese government ships around Taiwan in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on September 18 (UTC+8). Twenty-four of the 28 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the island's northern, central, southwestern and eastern air-defence identification zones, against 19 sorties and 17 crossings in the previous day's bulletin 19 20].

Market and Supply-Chain Impact: Taiwan's procurement is tilting toward cheap unmanned systems and domestic missile production, and the drill's practical effect falls on two supply chains: the island's drone and missile makers, and the Coast Guard, which would serve an auxiliary role to the navy in a war and had an anti-ship missile fitted to one of its ships during the August war games 18. Drones have become central to combat in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Taiwan has been drawing lessons from both for its own contingency planning 18. For anyone tracking the Strait, the defence ministry's daily bulletin remains the highest-frequency public figure: 24 of 28 sorties crossed the median line in the September 17 to 18 window, up from 17 of 19 in the previous one 19.

References

A tanker struck in Hormuz, $24bn of F-35s to Riyadh, and five geopolitical signals for September 18, 2026

US-China Trade: A Business Delegation Takes Shape for Xi's Washington Visit

Washington and Beijing are finalising a group of Chinese business leaders to travel with President Xi Jinping, three sources said, with final invitations going out in the coming days and the State Department expected to clear US visas for the delegation. BYD, Xiaomi, CATL, Gotion, Hisense, Wanxiang Group and Bank of China are among the companies under consideration, and the companies have been told to prepare pending confirmation at a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng this weekend 1.

One source said Xi plans to bring companies that already face US sanctions, blacklists or other regulatory pressure, mirroring Trump's May delegation of Micron, Qualcomm and Illumina executives. CATL and BYD were added to a Pentagon list over alleged military links in January 2025 and June 2026, Gotion is suing a Michigan township over its blocked $2.36 billion EV-components plant, and Wanxiang paid more than $53 million in December to settle a US customs case. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang and OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman are also due at a White House state dinner 1.

The stated US objectives are an agreement on a Board of Trade, additional rare-earth export licences for American firms and an extension of the trade truce reached last October in South Korea, with expectations for the visit described as modest 1. The commodity files in play span all three. US agricultural exports to China reached $29 billion in 2024, led by soybeans, and Beijing is on track to meet a 25 million metric ton annual soybean commitment that still runs against a final 10% tariff left over from the trade war; China's purchases of US oil and gas halted last year after levies of 10% to 15%, and Bloomberg reported energy tariffs could sit inside a $30 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts; US aerospace and chipmaking firms still report difficulty securing rare-earth material even as more of it flows 2.

Russia-Ukraine: Yaroslavl Refinery Halts as Diesel Prices Set Records

Russia's Slavneft Yaroslavnefteorgsintez (YANOS) refinery halted crude processing on Thursday after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged equipment, four industry sources said. Yaroslavl's regional governor, Mikhail Yevrayev, said 65 drones were downed, that the refinery sustained damage and that fires were being extinguished, with no casualties 3.

The strike damaged the plant's AVT-3 primary crude distillation unit, which has a capacity of 17,140 metric tons a day and accounts for about 40% of the refinery's processing capacity. A second unit, AVT-4, was already under repair after an August 28 drone strike. YANOS has a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels a day; in 2024 it ran 14.9 million tons of crude, producing 2.6 million tons of gasoline and 4.0 million tons of diesel, and its fuel was not offered for sale on Russia's domestic commodity exchange on Thursday 3.

The outage lands in a diesel market short of refining rather than crude. Half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries had sharply cut output or shut by September, and combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf have fallen by roughly two-thirds from 2025 levels. European diesel futures hit a record $210 a barrel this week, US retail diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time, and the US average gasoline price sits near $4.40. US distillate inventories are at their lowest for this time of year since at least 1982, and the International Energy Agency expects global refinery throughput to average 81.5 million barrels a day in 2026 against about 84 million in 2025 4. Trump has pressed Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop striking Russian diesel output and said both sides agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure; strikes continued on both sides, with Ukraine hitting the Syzran refinery and Russia damaging gas stations in Kyiv and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia 5.

Middle East Shipping: Iran Says It Struck a Tanker as Hormuz Traffic Stays in Single Digits

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said its navy struck a Togo-flagged oil tanker, the Trend, for what it called an "illegal attempt" to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state broadcasters reported. The Associated Press could not immediately confirm the report. The Guard's navy warned that unauthorised passage would end in the "destruction" of offending vessels 6. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a ship "security incident" 16 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, overnight, with the crew safe and no environmental damage confirmed 6.

Four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from six a day earlier and below the 10-day average of about 16, with three entering the Gulf and one leaving, according to preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data taken at 0200 GMT. The day's traffic was two Panamax tankers, one Supramax and one Kamsarmax vessel. Twenty-three commodity vessels transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday against a 10-day average of about 26 7.

Saudi Arabia has sold about 60 million barrels of crude from its Ras Tanura port inside the Strait of Hormuz for loading by ship-to-ship transfer at Oman's port of Sohar across September and October, trade sources said, with Chinese and South Korean refiners among the biggest buyers and some volumes going to India and Japan 8. Brent crude fell $2.30, or 2.2%, to $102.53 a barrel by 0636 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to $100.04, a third consecutive daily decline that puts Brent on course for its first weekly loss in three 9.

Middle East War: Washington Clears F-35s for Riyadh as Trump Heads to the UN

The State Department approved a sale of 48 F-35 fighters and 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines to Saudi Arabia, a package valued at $24.3 billion. Congress has 30 days to scrutinise or attempt to block it. Saudi Arabia is the largest customer for US weapons, and the sale would put its fleet level with Israel's 50 jets; Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi warned it "could put the crown jewels of American military technology within reach of the Chinese Communist Party" 13 14.

Trump addresses the UN General Assembly on Tuesday with the war in its seventh month and most European and Asian allies having spurned his requests for assistance. No US-Iran talks have been held since an interim agreement reached in June collapsed within weeks, an Iranian delegation will be able to attend, and Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines 15. South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, said his government is weighing whether to expand the operations of its Cheonghae naval unit in the Gulf of Aden to protect Korean ships and oil routes while declining to send troops into the conflict 6.

Damage inside the kingdom is mounting. Debris from an intercepted Houthi drone killed one person and wounded two in Taif province, Saudi civil defence said 16. Houthi forces hold Yemen's Red Sea coast and the islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway carrying some 12% of world trade in peacetime, and the defence pact Saudi Arabia signed with Turkey and Pakistan has yet to draw a Saudi request for support, officials from both countries said. Trump has declined to commit US forces directly against the Houthis 17.

Taiwan Strait: A First Multi-Drone Exercise, Then 28 Sorties in a Day

Taiwan's military ran its first joint combat exercise using multiple types of attack drones this week, in a three-day drill in the far south of the island that also included launches of domestically developed Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles and Lockheed Martin HIMARS rockets, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday. The presidential office named no drone types and released only images of the missiles. Lai was accompanied by Defence Minister Wellington Koo and by Kuan Bi-ling, who heads the Ocean Affairs Council, the agency that runs Taiwan's Coast Guard 18.

"This marks the first time the military has incorporated multiple types of attack drones into joint combat exercises," Lai said, adding that "the coordinated use of unmanned vehicles with conventional weapons reflects the adaptation to modern warfare" 18.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 28 PLA aircraft sorties, seven PLA Navy ships and two Chinese government ships around Taiwan in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on September 18 (UTC+8). Twenty-four of the 28 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the island's northern, central, southwestern and eastern air-defence identification zones, against 19 sorties and 17 crossings in the previous day's bulletin 19 20].

A tanker struck in Hormuz, $24bn of F-35s to Riyadh, and five geopolitical signals for September 18, 2026

US-China Trade: A Business Delegation Takes Shape for Xi's Washington Visit

Russia-Ukraine: Yaroslavl Refinery Halts as Diesel Prices Set Records

Middle East Shipping: Iran Says It Struck a Tanker as Hormuz Traffic Stays in Single Digits

Middle East War: Washington Clears F-35s for Riyadh as Trump Heads to the UN

Taiwan Strait: A First Multi-Drone Exercise, Then 28 Sorties in a Day

References

Related content

A tanker struck in Hormuz, $24bn of F-35s to Riyadh, and five geopolitical signals for September 18, 2026

US-China Trade: A Business Delegation Takes Shape for Xi's Washington Visit

Russia-Ukraine: Yaroslavl Refinery Halts as Diesel Prices Set Records

Middle East Shipping: Iran Says It Struck a Tanker as Hormuz Traffic Stays in Single Digits

Middle East War: Washington Clears F-35s for Riyadh as Trump Heads to the UN

Taiwan Strait: A First Multi-Drone Exercise, Then 28 Sorties in a Day

References

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