CDNA: 34.4% TTM Growth, 0.70 PEG — Transplant Diagnostics After a 148% YTD Run
CareDx passes the hard small-cap screen with 34.41% TTM sales growth, a 0.70 PEG and positive operating cash flow, but the next test is whether recurring transplant diagnostics growth can support the stock after its 148% YTD run.
The screen
CareDx (NASDAQ: CDNA) is this week's small-cap growth candidate. The screen passes on the latest available market snapshot: the August 7, 2026 close.
| Filter | CDNA | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. small-cap market value | $2.42B 1 | Below the $10B ceiling |
| TTM sales growth | 34.41% 1 | Above the 30% hurdle |
| PEG ratio | 0.70 1 | Below 1, on Finviz's methodology |
| TTM operating cash flow | +$93.7M 2 | Positive |
The first three numbers are the vendor's point-in-time screen fields. The cash-flow figure is a rolling TTM calculation from CareDx's SEC filings: FY2025 operating cash flow of $42.032M, less the first-half 2025 outflow of $16.689M, plus first-half 2026 operating cash flow of $34.937M. The result is positive, but investors should keep the definitions separate rather than treating every screen field as a standardized accounting measure.
My read: CDNA is a genuine pass, but not an undiscovered bargain. The business is growing quickly, the balance sheet improved after a divestiture, and the valuation screen is helped by a low PEG. The stock has also risen 147.82% year to date and now sits close to its 52-week high. The question is whether testing growth, reimbursement and the NavDx integration can support the next leg after that re-rating.
What CareDx sells
CareDx is a precision-medicine diagnostics company focused on transplant, specialty oncology and cell therapy. Its transplant portfolio includes AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare and AlloSure Lung. It also sells NavDx in specialty oncology, is advancing AlloCell in cell therapy, and provides clinical-practice software, data and patient-support services. 2
The model is attractive when the test becomes part of a recurring clinical workflow: more transplant programs and more surveillance or for-cause testing can expand volume without requiring a new physical product for every patient. But the economics depend on clinical validation, payer reimbursement and the company's ability to turn test results into accepted medical decisions. That is why the growth rate alone is not enough.
The portfolio changed during the quarter. CareDx completed the sale of its Lab Products business to Eurobio Scientific on June 30 and acquired Naveris, the company behind NavDx. Future periods will no longer include Lab Products segment revenue, while management is beginning to integrate NavDx into the broader diagnostics platform. 3
The quarterly trend is improving, with one large accounting item
CareDx reported second-quarter revenue of $131.948M, up 52.3% from $86.679M a year earlier. Testing Services revenue rose 61% to $99.927M, while testing volume increased 17% to roughly 58,000 tests. Patient and Digital Solutions revenue rose 50% to $19.230M; Lab Product revenue was $12.791M, up 8%, in its final full reporting period. 3
The six-quarter view makes the direction easier to see. Dollar figures are millions and net income is GAAP. Q1 2025 and Q4 2025 are calculated from the cumulative periods in the SEC filing; the other quarterly figures are reported quarterly values. 2
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY growth | GAAP net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $131.95M | 52.3% | $110.64M |
| Q1 2026 | $117.70M | 39.0% | $2.81M |
| Q4 2025 | $108.39M | — | -$4.11M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.06M | — | $1.68M |
| Q2 2025 | $86.68M | — | -$8.57M |
| Q1 2025 | $84.69M | — | -$10.35M |
The revenue line is the cleaner signal. The earnings line is not: Q2 GAAP net income included a $113M gain on the Lab Products sale, and the release reports adjusted EBITDA of $24.8M. Testing Services growth also needs a quality adjustment: the company said it recognized $16M of prior-period revenue in the quarter, and excluding that item, Testing Services revenue growth was approximately 28% year over year rather than 61%. 3
Management raised 2026 guidance to $490M–$500M of revenue and $66M–$78M of adjusted EBITDA, from previous ranges of $447M–$465M and $43M–$57M. That is the near-term operating benchmark: the company must show that the underlying testing franchise, rather than the divestiture gain or prior-period collections, can carry the upgraded outlook. 3
Valuation: cheap PEG, expensive cash-flow multiple
Finviz shows CDNA at 22.51× trailing P/E, 34.46× forward P/E, 5.27× price/sales, 28.52× price/free cash flow, 4.50× EV/sales and 114.70× EV/EBITDA. StockAnalysis reports broadly similar price/sales and price/free-cash-flow figures, but its PEG field is unavailable and its EV/EBITDA figure is 105.46×. The message is straightforward: the PEG passes the channel's hard filter, while the absolute valuation is not low across every measure. 14
A same-framework diagnostic comparison helps put the multiples in context, but it is not a formal sector median. Veracyte (NASDAQ: VCYT) is larger, with a roughly $3.8B market cap; Finviz lists it at 33.50× trailing P/E, 6.76× price/sales and a 4.75 PEG. CDNA is cheaper on those two headline measures, although CareDx's much higher EV/EBITDA reflects a very small trailing EBITDA base and should not be treated as a standalone proof of undervaluation. 5
The balance sheet provides some support. As of June 30, CareDx reported $373.6M of cash and cash equivalents, $107.4M of total liabilities and $425.6M of stockholders' equity. StockAnalysis lists $19.25M of debt and a $354.4M net-cash position; Finviz shows a 4.58 current ratio and 0.05 debt/equity ratio. The company is not screening as a leveraged balance-sheet story. 24
Catalysts and what could extend the growth
- Testing Services adoption. Q2 volume rose 17%, and management attributed revenue growth to demand across transplant programs, reimbursement dynamics and increased surveillance and for-cause testing. The key follow-up is whether volume growth and normalized revenue per test remain healthy after the $16M prior-period contribution rolls out of the comparison. 3
- NavDx and specialty oncology. CareDx says the Naveris acquisition strengthens its position in specialty oncology; management expects to integrate NavDx into the platform. A successful billing migration and cross-selling into the existing clinical network could broaden the growth base beyond transplant. 2
- Evidence and reimbursement. The company highlighted new AlloSure, NavDx and HistoMap data, as well as a finalized Medicare coverage policy for AlloSure and AlloMap. Those developments can support adoption, but they do not eliminate the need for continuing clinical validation and payer negotiations. 3
- Guidance delivery. The upgraded $490M–$500M revenue range and $66M–$78M adjusted EBITDA range are the clearest monitorable catalyst. The next quarterly update should show whether the new targets are being earned through recurring operations.
Risks that matter more than the PEG
- Reimbursement concentration. Medicare represented approximately 30% of total revenue in Q2 2026 and 29% in the first half. About 21% of accounts receivable was due from Medicare at June 30. The 10-Q also says CareDx reduced testing-services revenue by $2.4M in Q2 and $5.8M in the first half for a higher refund reserve, while recognizing $18.0M and $35.6M of revenue for tests performed in prior periods. These adjustments make revenue quality and collection timing important diligence items. 2
- A one-off profit headline. The $110.6M Q2 GAAP profit is not a normal earnings run rate because the Lab Products sale generated a $113M gain. Operating income remained slightly negative on the trailing Finviz snapshot, despite a 24.23% profit margin inflated by the sale. 13
- Integration and competition. CareDx identifies the integration of Naveris, the realization of benefits from the Lab Products sale, competition in a rapidly changing diagnostics market and the need for peer-reviewed clinical support as risks. NavDx can diversify the business, but it also adds execution and billing-migration risk. 2
- Price and volatility. CDNA closed at $46.69, versus a 52-week range of $11.26–$49.76. It was up 147.82% YTD and 286.83% over one year, with an RSI of 73.14, beta of 2.41 and average volume of 996,230 shares. Finviz also reports 13.23% short float. This is a momentum-sensitive stock near its high, not a quiet value entry. 1
- Planned insider selling and dilution. Secretary and General Counsel Jeffrey Novack sold 2,688 shares on August 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted in September 2025. A separate disclosure reports director Christine Cournoyer sold 16,000 shares on August 4 under a 10b5-1 plan. Planned sales are not proof of a changed outlook, but they are worth tracking after a large price increase. The 10-Q also lists 1.29 million potentially dilutive securities excluded from diluted EPS because they were antidilutive. 267
Price, ownership and analyst expectations
The market has already recognized the story. Investing.com reports a consensus of four Buy, three Hold and zero Sell ratings, based on the past three months. The average 12-month target is $52.33, with a high of $64 and a low of $40—only about 12% above the August 7 close on average. That is constructive, but it does not imply a wide margin of safety. 8
Ownership data are unusually vendor-sensitive. Yahoo Finance lists BlackRock as the largest named institutional holder at 4.52M shares, followed by BAMCO at 3.34M, State Street at 2.76M, ARK Investment Management at 2.23M, Deerfield at 2.19M and Braidwell at 2.17M, with reported dates mostly March 31, 2026; Boston Partners and Gagnon reported June 30 positions. Yahoo's aggregate institutional ownership fields exceed 100%, so the holder list is more useful for identifying names than for treating the percentages as a clean cap-table measure. 9
The next quarterly earnings date was not reliably verified in the accessible source pages after the July 30 report. The practical catalyst is therefore the next quarterly update, not an unverified calendar estimate. Watch four numbers: normalized Testing Services revenue and volume, the amount of prior-period revenue recognized, NavDx contribution and billing integration, and whether the $490M–$500M revenue guidance still looks achievable.
Bottom line
CDNA clears the channel's hard screen on the August 7 snapshot: $2.42B market cap, 34.41% Finviz TTM sales growth, a 0.70 Finviz PEG and positive TTM operating cash flow. The better version of the thesis is not "cheap diagnostics." It is a cash-generating transplant-testing platform with a strengthened balance sheet, a raised 2026 outlook and a possible specialty-oncology expansion—priced after a 148% YTD run and carrying reimbursement, integration and revenue-quality risks.
For a retail growth investor, CDNA merits deeper diligence or a watchlist entry rather than a blind chase. The next report should decide whether the growth is broadening and recurring, or whether the screen is being flattered by prior-period revenue, a one-time asset-sale gain and a favorable valuation formula.
This is research for further diligence, not individualized investment advice.
References
- 1CDNA - CareDx stock snapshot
finviz.com
- 2CareDx 2026 Q2 Form 10-Q
sec.gov
- 3
- 4CareDx Statistics & Valuation
stockanalysis.com
- 5VCYT - Veracyte stock snapshot
finviz.com
- 6CareDx Form 4 insider sale
stocktitan.net
- 7CareDx insider buying and selling alert
insidertrades.com
- 8CareDx analyst consensus and price target
investing.com
- 9CareDx major holders
finance.yahoo.com
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