2026-08-13 09:00｜有色金属事件流（19条）
覆盖上期所仓单、LME期限价差、Tomago铝厂供电协议、美国CPI与利率及上海铜现货升贴水等19条事件；LME日度库存原始数值仍未闭合。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-copper-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所铜仓单增953吨至24131吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/cu.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_cu_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"上海期货交易所2026年8月12日仓单日报为2026年第147期、总第4340期，铜仓单单位为吨",
"铜期货仓单总计24131吨，较前一交易日增加953吨；前值为23178吨",
"官方铜明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z"
],
"transmission_chain": "铜仓单增加953吨→可交割显性供给上升→沪铜及有色板块短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续铜仓单减少953吨以上并低于23178吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-aluminum-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所铝仓单降1023吨至303168吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/al.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_al_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"铝期货仓单总计303168吨，较前一交易日减少1023吨；前值为304191吨",
"官方铝明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"仓单日报页面注明期货数量为已制成仓单的货物数量"
],
"transmission_chain": "铝仓单减少1023吨→可交割显性供给收缩→铝价及有色板块获得短线支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续铝仓单增加1023吨以上并高于304191吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-zinc-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所锌仓单增396吨至110721吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/zn.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_zn_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"锌期货仓单总计110721吨，较前一交易日增加396吨；前值为110325吨",
"官方锌明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"数据日期SETTDATE为20260812"
],
"transmission_chain": "锌仓单增加396吨→交易所可交割货源增加→锌价及有色板块短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续锌仓单减少396吨以上并低于110325吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-lead-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所铅仓单增301吨至61228吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/pb.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_pb_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"铅期货仓单总计61228吨，较前一交易日增加301吨；前值为60927吨",
"官方铅明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"数据日期SETTDATE为20260812"
],
"transmission_chain": "铅仓单增加301吨→可交割现货缓冲扩张→铅价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续铅仓单减少301吨以上并低于60927吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-nickel-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所镍仓单降158吨至100769吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/ni.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_ni_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"镍期货仓单总计100769吨，较前一交易日减少158吨；前值为100927吨",
"官方镍明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"数据日期SETTDATE为20260812"
],
"transmission_chain": "镍仓单减少158吨→交易所显性供给小幅收缩→镍价获得短线支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续镍仓单增加158吨以上并高于100927吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-tin-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所锡仓单增136吨至5199吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/sn.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_sn_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"锡期货仓单总计5199吨，较前一交易日增加136吨；前值为5063吨",
"官方锡明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"数据日期SETTDATE为20260812"
],
"transmission_chain": "锡仓单增加136吨→可交割现货显性供给增加→锡价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续锡仓单减少136吨以上并低于5063吨，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260812-alumina-daily-warrant",
"title": "上期所氧化铝仓单持平273586吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:06:15Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260812/ZH/shfe/ao.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_ao_20260812.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "inventory",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"氧化铝仓库仓单264286吨，较前一交易日持平；厂库仓单9300吨，较前一交易日持平",
"仓库与厂库仓单合计273586吨，合计值由264286吨与9300吨相加得到",
"官方氧化铝明细数据文件HTTP Last-Modified为2026-08-12T07:06:15Z"
],
"transmission_chain": "氧化铝仓库与厂库仓单均持平→交易所显性供给没有新增方向→氧化铝及铝价短线影响中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续氧化铝仓库或厂库仓单出现非零增减，或上期所修正本期日报"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-copper-forward-curve",
"title": "LME铜现货较3月升水175美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 2
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME官方价格有效日为2026年8月12日，价格单位为美元/吨",
"铜现货买价14375.00美元/吨、卖价14376.00美元/吨，中点14375.50美元/吨",
"铜3个月买价14200.00美元/吨、卖价14201.00美元/吨，中点14200.50美元/吨；现货中点较3个月中点升水175.00美元/吨",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "铜现货较3个月升水175美元/吨→近端可交付铜紧张信号增强→铜价及有色板块获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME铜现货与3个月价差转为平水或贴水，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-aluminum-forward-curve",
"title": "LME铝现货较3月贴水1美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME铝现货买价3307.00美元/吨、卖价3307.50美元/吨，中点3307.25美元/吨",
"LME铝3个月买价3308.00美元/吨、卖价3308.50美元/吨，中点3308.25美元/吨",
"铝现货中点较3个月中点贴水1.00美元/吨，近端曲线接近平水",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "铝现货较3个月仅贴水1美元/吨→近远月供需基本平衡→铝价短线方向中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME铝现货与3个月价差绝对值扩大至50美元/吨以上，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-zinc-forward-curve",
"title": "LME锌现货较3月升水71.5美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME锌现货买价3850.00美元/吨、卖价3852.00美元/吨，中点3851.00美元/吨",
"LME锌3个月买价3779.00美元/吨、卖价3780.00美元/吨，中点3779.50美元/吨",
"锌现货中点较3个月中点升水71.50美元/吨",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "锌现货较3个月升水71.5美元/吨→近端现货紧张信号增强→锌价及有色板块获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME锌现货与3个月价差转为平水或贴水，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-nickel-forward-curve",
"title": "LME镍现货较3月贴水200美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME镍现货买价16715.00美元/吨、卖价16725.00美元/吨，中点16720.00美元/吨",
"LME镍3个月买价16900.00美元/吨、卖价16940.00美元/吨，中点16920.00美元/吨",
"镍现货中点较3个月中点贴水200.00美元/吨",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "镍现货较3个月贴水200美元/吨→近端供应宽松信号增强→镍价及有色板块承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME镍现货与3个月价差转为平水或升水，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-lead-forward-curve",
"title": "LME铅现货较3月贴水38.75美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME铅现货买价1879.50美元/吨、卖价1880.00美元/吨，中点1879.75美元/吨",
"LME铅3个月买价1918.00美元/吨、卖价1919.00美元/吨，中点1918.50美元/吨",
"铅现货中点较3个月中点贴水38.75美元/吨",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "铅现货较3个月贴水38.75美元/吨→近端供应压力高于远月→铅价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME铅现货与3个月价差转为平水或升水，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-lme-20260812-tin-forward-curve",
"title": "LME锡现货较3月贴水250美元每吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"LME锡现货买价56000.00美元/吨、卖价56050.00美元/吨，中点56025.00美元/吨",
"LME锡3个月买价56250.00美元/吨、卖价56300.00美元/吨，中点56275.00美元/吨",
"锡现货中点较3个月中点贴水250.00美元/吨",
"LME说明官方价格在伦敦时间12:20至13:25发布；published_at_utc采用该发布窗口截止时刻"
],
"transmission_chain": "锡现货较3个月贴水250美元/吨→近端供应宽松信号增强→锡价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME锡现货与3个月价差转为平水或升水，或LME修正8月12日官方价格"
},
{
"event_id": "rio-australia-20260813-tomago-power-agreement",
"title": "力拓Tomago铝厂获10年购电协议",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T23:31:20Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T23:31:20Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2026/rio-tinto-welcomes-agreement-to-secure-long-term-future-of-tomago-aluminium"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": [
"Tomago将签订10年期购电协议，新协议在现有AGL合同2028年12月31日到期后生效，电力安排延续至2038年",
"Tomago承诺至2038年投入11亿澳元实值投资，其中1亿澳元用于脱碳；2033年起使用100%可再生电力",
"冶炼厂年产能最高59万吨铝，约占澳大利亚年产量40%；力拓持股51.55%",
"2033年起预计每年减少710万吨Scope 1和Scope 2运营碳排放"
],
"transmission_chain": "10年购电协议与11亿澳元投资→Tomago铝厂停产风险下降、59万吨年产能获得长期保障→铝价供应风险溢价承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "购电协议未能签署或融资条件未满足、Tomago提前减产停产，或政府撤回支持安排"
},
{
"event_id": "bls-us-20260812-july-cpi",
"title": "美国7月CPI同比降至3.4%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"美国2026年7月CPI-U季调环比上涨0.1%，6月发布值为下降0.4%",
"CPI-U未季调同比上涨3.4%，6月同比为3.5%；未季调指数为333.918，基期1982—1984年等于100",
"核心CPI季调环比上涨0.2%、未季调同比上涨2.5%；能源指数环比下降1.5%、同比上涨14.7%"
],
"transmission_chain": "美国CPI同比由3.5%回落至3.4%→利率与美元上行压力边际减弱→美元计价有色金属获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续CPI修正为同比3.5%以上，或下一次通胀数据重新加速并推动美元与实际利率上升"
},
{
"event_id": "bls-us-20260812-july-real-earnings",
"title": "美国7月实际时薪环比下降0.1%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": [
"美国私人非农全部雇员实际平均时薪2026年7月季调环比下降0.1%",
"实际平均周薪环比持平，实际时薪下降与平均每周工时环比持平共同形成该结果",
"实际平均时薪同比下降0.2%，实际平均周薪同比上涨0.1%"
],
"transmission_chain": "实际时薪环比下降0.1%→居民实际购买力与终端需求边际走弱→工业金属需求预期承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "BLS修正7月实际时薪为非负增长，或下一期实际时薪与实际周薪同步显著回升"
},
{
"event_id": "fed-us-20260812-h15-rates",
"title": "美国10年期国债收益率回落至4.70%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T20:15:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T20:15:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"美联储H.15于2026年8月12日美东时间16:15发布，表内最新数据日为8月11日",
"8月11日美国10年期国债恒定到期收益率4.70%，较8月10日4.72%下降2个基点",
"8月11日2年期国债收益率4.22%、30年期5.24%、10年期TIPS实际收益率2.43%，单位均为年率百分比",
"联邦基金有效利率为3.63%，8月5日至8月11日连续5个交易日持平"
],
"transmission_chain": "美国10年期收益率下降2个基点→美元资产机会成本边际回落→有色金属估值获得短线支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一次H.15显示10年期收益率升回4.72%以上，或美联储修正8月11日数据"
},
{
"event_id": "eia-us-20260812-weekly-petroleum",
"title": "美国商业原油库存周增1742.2万桶",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T14:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T14:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_08_12/wpsr_2026_08_12.php",
"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2026/2026_08_12/csv/table4.csv"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"EIA周度石油报告数据周截至2026年8月7日，2026年8月12日美东时间10:30后发布",
"美国商业原油库存为42441.0万桶，周增加1742.2万桶、增幅4.3%；战略石油储备为29869.4万桶，周减少611.5万桶",
"美国国内原油产量为1380.5万桶/日，周增加0.1万桶/日；总产品供应量为2063.5万桶/日，周减少33.5万桶/日"
],
"transmission_chain": "商业原油库存大增且成品油隐含需求下降→能源成本下行与工业需求转弱信号并存→有色金属方向影响中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续周报显示商业原油库存回吐1742.2万桶以上且总产品供应量明显回升，或EIA修正本周数据"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260812-copper-close-basis",
"title": "上海平水铜由升水50元转贴水20元",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T07:00:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T09:36:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU2Mzc2Nzc4NA==&mid=2247535830&idx=3&sn=a9b4aa162201fc246542d4e8961da8a6"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 89,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"沪铜2608合约2026年8月12日收盘价108680元/吨，开盘价108350元/吨，盘中最高108770元/吨",
"隔月Back月差380至450元/吨，沪铜对2608合约当月进口亏损1740至1820元/吨",
"上海平水铜鲁方、JCC由早盘升水50元/吨下调至贴水20元/吨左右；好铜贵溪按升水80元/吨或SMM均价加30元/吨成交",
"非注册铜TFM、KFM、KCC按贴水250至180元/吨成交；上海电解铜销售情绪指数3.16、环比增加0.10，采购情绪指数2.87、环比增加0.14"
],
"transmission_chain": "平水铜由升水转贴水且进口维持亏损→高价抑制现货承接、持货商降价出货→沪铜现货端短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易时段平水铜恢复升水50元/吨以上且采购情绪继续上升，或SMM修正收盘数据"
}
]This story was produced automatically by a channel. One sentence is all it takes for Neodrop to keep producing for you.
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