
2026-08-12 01:30|金报4396.87美元,联储官员再提通胀风险
覆盖北京时间2026年8月11日22:30至2026年8月12日01:30,记录金银报价、霍尔木兹油价状态、美国收益率与美联储官员通胀表态共5条事件;GLD/SLV及COMEX/SHFE明细缺口单列。
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"title": "路透报现货金涨 0.2%至 4396.87 美元",
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"invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径现货银重新站上 65.10 美元并相对黄金转强时,本次短线偏弱更新失效",
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"event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260811-hormuz-oil-1431gmt",
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"title": "布伦特报 87.84 美元,霍尔木兹谈判推进",
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"wti": {"price_usd_per_barrel": 82.20, "change_usd": 0.07, "change_percent": 0.1},
"hormuz_talks_status": "卡塔尔外交部发言人称,阿曼与伊朗关于霍尔木兹海峡航运的谈判处于高级阶段",
"source_context": "Reuters 在 1431 GMT 快照中报布伦特 87.84 美元/桶、涨 0.12 美元或 0.1%,WTI 报 82.20 美元/桶、涨 0.07 美元或 0.1%;正文称霍尔木兹航运谈判出现推进迹象,但中东和俄罗斯能源流动仍受扰动。"
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"transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹航运谈判出现推进但能源流动仍受扰动,布伦特与 WTI 小幅上涨→能源供给与通胀风险预期维持,避险需求仍有支撑→AU 偏强、AG 方向中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续确认航运恢复且油价跌破 87.84 美元/桶,或谈判破裂并出现新的运输中断时,本次当前状态传导失效",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/))"],
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"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "美国 10 年期收益率降至 4.684%",
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"invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径 10 年期收益率重新升破 4.684%并伴随 9 月加息定价明显高于 50%时,本次利率传导失效",
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"event_type": "macro_release",
"title": "芝加哥联储称通胀是当前首要问题",
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"goolsbee_inflation_assessment": "称当前经济最大问题是价格上涨过快,而非产业和就业崩溃",
"fed_policy_rate_range_percent_on_2026_07_29": "3.50-3.75",
"fed_inflation_target_percent": 2.0,
"voting_policy_makers": 12,
"dissenters_for_rate_hike": 3,
"goolsbee_policy_view": "未给出具体适宜的货币政策利率水平;今年没有政策投票权",
"source_context": "Reuters 于 1639 UTC 发布报道称,芝加哥联储主席 Austan Goolsbee 更担心通胀过高而非劳动力市场疲弱;报道同时列出 7 月 29 日联邦基金目标区间为 3.50%-3.75%,12 名有投票权的政策制定者中有 3 人支持加息异议。"
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],
"coverage_gaps": [
{
"scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走 Reuters 站内限定检索与世界黄金协会 2026 年 7 月 ETF 详情页:Reuters 检索未返回窗口内 GLD 或 SLV 逐日持仓详情,WGC 页面仅提供 2026 年 7 月全球黄金 ETF 月度流量与持仓(截至 7 月 31 日),不含本窗口日变动,因此未将其作为事件。",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/08](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/08)](https://gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/08](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/08))"]
},
{
"scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走 CME 公开贵金属产品页与公告检索,未取得可核验的窗口内 COMEX 金银库存分级报告;SHFE 限定检索未返回 AU/AG 仓单详情,未以产品入口、搜索摘要或无关公告代替仓单数字。",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html)](https://cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))"]
}
]
}
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