22:30｜黄金4587.23美元，上金所金银日涨

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-21T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T14:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260821-gold-458723", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货黄金报 4587.23 美元，日内涨 1.5%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T11:01:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T11:44:29.089Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T11:44:29.089Z", "observation_time_utc": "2026-08-21T11:01:00Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4587.23, "intraday_change_pct": 1.5, "session_high_usd_per_oz": 4601.29, "u_s_gold_futures_usd_per_oz": 4645.00, "reported_driver": "疲弱美元与美国财政部周中流动性支持公告", "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4537.41, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T06:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 4587.23, "prior_value": 4537.41, "delta_usd_per_oz": 49.82, "delta_pct": 1.0977, "calculation": "(4587.23 - 4537.41) / 4537.41 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "现货黄金 11:01Z 报 4587.23 美元且日内涨 1.5%→疲弱美元与美国财政部流动性支持降低美元资产相对吸引力并推动贵金属买盘→AU 较上一期窗口末上移 49.82 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正现货黄金 4587.23 美元/盎司、11:01Z 观察时刻或 1.5%涨幅，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260821-silver-6948", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货白银报 69.48 美元，日内涨 2%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T11:44:29.089Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T11:44:29.089Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 69.48, "intraday_change_pct": 2.0, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 68.93, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T06:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 69.48, "prior_value": 68.93, "delta_usd_per_oz": 0.55, "delta_pct": 0.7976, "calculation": "(69.48 - 68.93) / 68.93 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "路透 8 月 21 日更新状态中现货白银报 69.48 美元且日内涨 2%→美元走弱和黄金上行改善贵金属整体风险偏好→AG 较上一期窗口末上移 0.55 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正 2026 年 8 月 21 日现货白银 69.48 美元/盎司或 2%的日内涨幅，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260821-Au9999-98356", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 收于 983.56 元/克，涨 1.59%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T14:42:58Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "source_page_timestamp_disclosed": false, "source_observed_at_utc": "2026-08-21T14:42:58Z", "contract": "Au99.99", "unit": "CNY/g", "open": 967.00, "high": 986.60, "low": 962.00, "close": 983.56, "change": 15.42, "change_pct": 1.59, "weighted_average": 981.19, "volume_kg": 5466.9, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "close": 978.0, "unit": "CNY/g", "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 983.56, "prior_value": 978.0, "delta_cny_per_g": 5.56, "delta_pct": 0.5685, "calculation": "(983.56 - 978.0) / 978.0 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "上金所 2026-08-21 每日行情显示 Au99.99 收 983.56 元/克、较前值涨 15.42 元/克→人民币计价黄金交易价格上移→AU 较最近已发布上金所快照上移 5.56 元/克。", "invalidation_conditions": "若上金所更正 2026-08-21 Au99.99 的收盘价、涨跌数值或成交量，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-21&end_date=2026-08-21"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260821-AgTD-16730", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)收于 16730 元/千克，涨 3.49%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T14:42:58Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "source_page_timestamp_disclosed": false, "source_observed_at_utc": "2026-08-21T14:42:58Z", "contract": "Ag(T+D)", "unit": "CNY/kg", "open": 16091.00, "high": 16814.00, "low": 15990.00, "close": 16730.00, "change": 564.0, "change_pct": 3.49, "weighted_average": 16637.00, "volume_kg": 305494, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "close": 16639.0, "unit": "CNY/kg", "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 16730.0, "prior_value": 16639.0, "delta_cny_per_kg": 91.0, "delta_pct": 0.5469, "calculation": "(16730.0 - 16639.0) / 16639.0 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "上金所 2026-08-21 每日行情显示 Ag(T+D)收 16730 元/千克、较前值涨 564 元/千克→白银人民币计价交易价格和成交活动同步上移→AG 较最近已发布上金所快照上移 91 元/千克。", "invalidation_conditions": "若上金所更正 2026-08-21 Ag(T+D)的收盘价、涨跌数值或成交量，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-21&end_date=2026-08-21"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-precious-fund-inflow-2040", "event_type": "etf_flow", "title": "黄金及贵金属基金周度流入 20.4 亿美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T09:23:43.591Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T09:22:31.943Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T09:23:43.591Z", "source_data_period_end": "2026-08-19", "gold_and_precious_metals_fund_net_inflow_usd": 2040000000, "gold_and_precious_metals_fund_net_inflow_usd_display": "2.04 billion USD", "consecutive_inflow_streak_weeks": 6, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "consecutive_inflow_streak_weeks": 5, "snapshot_basis": "上一期未记录该周度基金流量" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 6, "prior_value": 5, "delta_weeks": 1, "calculation": "6 - 5" } }, "transmission_chain": "截至 8 月 19 日的一周黄金及其他贵金属基金净流入 20.4 亿美元且连续流入延长至 6 周→资金配置对贵金属的边际需求增加→AU 与 AG 获得数周维度的资金流正向支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社或 LSEG Lipper 更正 20.4 亿美元、统计截止日或连续流入周数，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-brent-9398-hormuz-7", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "布伦特报 93.98 美元，霍尔木兹周四通行 7 艘", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T13:07:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T13:19:41.083Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:50:08.963Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T13:19:41.083Z", "observation_time_utc": "2026-08-21T13:07:00Z", "brent_usd_per_barrel": 93.98, "brent_change_usd_per_barrel": 0.20, "brent_change_pct": 0.21, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 86.90, "wti_change_usd_per_barrel": 0.07, "wti_change_pct": 0.08, "brent_weekly_change_pct": 6.1, "wti_weekly_change_pct": 5.3, "hormuz_commodity_ships_on_thursday": 7, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "brent_usd_per_barrel": 93.12, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 86.18, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "brent_current_value": 93.98, "brent_prior_value": 93.12, "brent_delta_usd_per_barrel": 0.86, "brent_delta_pct": 0.9233, "wti_current_value": 86.90, "wti_prior_value": 86.18, "wti_delta_usd_per_barrel": 0.72, "wti_delta_pct": 0.8359, "calculation": "current value minus prior channel snapshot" } }, "transmission_chain": "美国对伊朗制裁与霍尔木兹扰动使布伦特报 93.98 美元、WTI 报 86.90 美元且周涨幅分别为 6.1%和 5.3%，周四仅 7 艘大宗商品船通过→能源供给风险抬升通胀与避险变量→AU 与 AG 获得数日维度的正向避险/通胀传导。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正 Brent、WTI、周涨幅或霍尔木兹通行量，或后续官方确认航道恢复正常并解除供给扰动，本事件的传导条件失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-second-weekly-rise-unsettled-us-iran-war-crimps-supply-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-second-weekly-rise-unsettled-us-iran-war-crimps-supply-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-second-weekly-rise-unsettled-us-iran-war-crimps-supply-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-second-weekly-rise-unsettled-us-iran-war-crimps-supply-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改用 SSGA 官方产品数据 XLSX 和 BlackRock/iShares 官方 fundDownload XML 接口。SSGA 文件最新 As of 为 2026-08-19 且未含 GLD 实物持仓；iShares 返回截至 2026-08-20 的 NAV 历史而非 Ounces in Trust 或 Tonnes in Trust，未取得窗口内每日持仓变动，未以数据日期冒充发布时间。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-product-data-us-en.xlsx](https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-product-data-us-en.xlsx)](https://ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-product-data-us-en.xlsx](https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-product-data-us-en.xlsx))", "[https://www.[blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual)](https://blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual))"] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改用 CME 官方 Daily Bulletin 和 NYMEX/COMEX Delivery Notices & Stocks 入口；页面未返回窗口内 gold/silver registered 与 eligible 分级库存表，未用产品页、交割通知或入口壳替代库存数字。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html)](https://cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html))"] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮读取上金所官方每日行情和行情周报入口；每日行情返回了 Au99.99 与 Ag(T+D)价格，但没有出入库或库存字段，行情周报入口在窗口内未出现新的出入库/库存报告，未把价格事件替代硬覆盖。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-21&end_date=2026-08-21", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb"] }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改用上期所公开日周数据查询入口和仓单日报入口；两条官方路径均返回人机识别页面，未取得可读取的窗口内 AU/AG 仓单数字，未用入口壳或交割通知替代仓单数据。", "blocked_requirement": "Tier A（优先，权威一手）：CFTC COT 持仓周报；SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报；LBMA 结算价与库存；WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报；美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话；BLS CPI 与非农；BEA PCE；美国财政部实际利率（TIPS）曲线。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_params=dailystock", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/whbill/"] }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线", "status": "no_new_row_in_window", "attempted_route": "本轮读取美国财政部官方 2026 年 Real Yield CSV；最新行仍为 2026-08-20，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 分别为 2.05%/2.18%/2.35%/2.73%/2.95%，没有 2026-08-21 窗口内新行，因此没有把旧数据写成本期事件。", "blocked_requirement": "Tier A（优先，权威一手）：CFTC COT 持仓周报；SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报；LBMA 结算价与库存；WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报；美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话；BLS CPI 与非农；BEA PCE；美国财政部实际利率（TIPS）曲线。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv))"] } ] }