09:30｜金报4514.23美元，上金所Au99.99报978.0

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-20T17:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260821-gold-451423", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货黄金报 4514.23 美元，周涨 3.2%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T00:31:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:01:23.774Z", "observation_time_utc": "2026-08-21T00:31:00Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4514.23, "weekly_change_pct": 3.2, "u_s_gold_futures_usd_per_oz": 4571.20, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4509.91, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-20T17:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 4514.23, "prior_value": 4509.91, "delta_usd_per_oz": 4.32, "delta_pct": 0.0958, "calculation": "(4514.23 - 4509.91) / 4509.91 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "现货黄金报 4514.23 美元且周涨 3.2%→美元走弱与美国长端收益率变化共同作用于美元计价贵金属→AU 现货价格较上一期频道快照上移 4.32 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正现货黄金 4514.23 美元/盎司、观察时刻或周涨幅，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260821-silver-6803", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货白银报 68.03 美元，路透称持平", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T00:31:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:01:23.774Z", "observation_time_utc": "2026-08-21T00:31:00Z", "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 68.03, "reported_intraday_change": "flat", "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 68.10, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-20T17:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 68.03, "prior_value": 68.10, "delta_usd_per_oz": -0.07, "delta_pct": -0.1028, "calculation": "(68.03 - 68.10) / 68.10 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "现货白银报 68.03 美元且路透称盘中持平→AG 美元计价报价在本窗口末端未出现新的显著日内变动→AG 较上一期频道快照下移 0.07 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正现货白银 68.03 美元/盎司、观察时刻或盘中变动描述，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-fedwatch-36", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "CME FedWatch 押注 9 月加息概率 36%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:01:23.774Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "cme_fedwatch_september_hold_probability_pct": 64, "cme_fedwatch_september_hike_probability_pct": 36, "comparison_to_prior_channel_snapshot": "本期首次在频道事件流中记录该概率状态" }, "transmission_chain": "CME FedWatch 显示 9 月加息概率 36%、按兵不动概率 64%→联邦基金利率路径预期影响美元与无息贵金属持有成本→AU 与 AG 的利率通道方向评分为负。", "invalidation_conditions": "若 CME FedWatch 在后续更新中修正该时点的 9 月加息或按兵不动概率，本事件按修正概率失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-yields-dollar", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美 30 年期收益率 5.25%，美元指数 98.802", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:11.020Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:11.020Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:44.523Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "u_s_treasury_30y_nominal_yield_pct": 5.25, "u_s_treasury_10y_nominal_yield_pct": 4.71, "dollar_index": 98.802, "dollar_index_weekly_change_pct": -0.9, "usd_jpy": 159.07, "comparison": "路透称 30 年期与 10 年期收益率回升；美元指数周内下跌近 0.9%" }, "transmission_chain": "美 30 年期和 10 年期名义收益率分别为 5.25%和 4.71%，美元指数为 98.802 且周内下跌近 0.9%→较高收益率压制无息资产、较弱美元降低非美元持有者的美元计价成本→AU 与 AG 的净方向保持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正收益率、美元指数、美元兑日元或周变动数据，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-oil-iran", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "伊朗制裁表态后布油一度升至 94.71 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:11.020Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:11.020Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T01:23:44.523Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "u_s_statement_on_iran": "美国将对伊朗实施「历史上最严厉的制裁」", "strait_of_hormuz_context": "路透称相关表态进一步削弱全面开放霍尔木兹海峡的希望", "brent_intraday_high_usd_per_barrel": 94.71, "brent_last_usd_per_barrel": 93.12, "brent_daily_change_pct": -0.7, "brent_weekly_change_pct": 5.0, "wti_last_usd_per_barrel": 86.18, "wti_daily_change_pct": -0.7, "comparison": "布伦特较窗口内高点回落，但周内仍上涨超过 5%" }, "transmission_chain": "美国对伊朗制裁表态与霍尔木兹海峡开放预期转弱→原油供应风险与通胀风险上升，布伦特一度升至 94.71 美元/桶→避险与通胀对冲需求为 AU 和 AG 提供正向地缘通道。", "invalidation_conditions": "若美国或相关方撤回制裁表态、霍尔木兹海峡重新完全开放，或路透社更正油价数据，本事件的地缘传导假设失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-japan-cpi", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "日本 7 月核心 CPI 同比升至 1.8%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T23:42:04.922Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T23:42:04.922Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-20T23:53:12.528Z", "source_text_date_local": "TOKYO, Aug 21 (Reuters)", "japan_core_cpi_yoy_actual_pct": 1.8, "japan_core_cpi_yoy_consensus_pct": 1.8, "japan_core_cpi_yoy_prior_pct": 1.6, "japan_core_cpi_ex_fresh_food_and_energy_yoy_actual_pct": 1.9, "japan_core_cpi_ex_fresh_food_and_energy_yoy_prior_pct": 1.7, "japan_services_inflation_yoy_actual_pct": 1.2, "japan_services_inflation_yoy_prior_pct": 1.1, "bank_of_japan_policy_rate_pct": 1.0, "reported_market_expectation_for_september_policy_rate_pct": 1.25 }, "transmission_chain": "日本 7 月核心 CPI 同比由 1.6%升至 1.8%，核心 CPI 剔除生鲜食品和能源后由 1.7%升至 1.9%→市场对日本央行 9 月升息至 1.25%的预期得到数据支持→日元与全球利率路径变化对 AU 和 AG 的净方向暂不确定。", "invalidation_conditions": "若日本统计数据或路透社更正 7 月核心 CPI 实际值、前值、预期或日本央行利率信息，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-core-inflation-accelerates-july-bolsters-case-rate-hike-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-core-inflation-accelerates-july-bolsters-case-rate-hike-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-core-inflation-accelerates-july-bolsters-case-rate-hike-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-core-inflation-accelerates-july-bolsters-case-rate-hike-2026-08-20/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查 SSGA 官方 GLD 产品页与 iShares 官方 SLV 产品页。GLD 页面只返回截至 2026-08-19 的 NAV 及截至 2026-08-20 的基金信息，未返回窗口内实物黄金持仓变动；SLV 页面返回截至 2026-08-20 的 Ounces in Trust 491121753.00、Tonnes in Trust 15275.59 和 NAV 60.3152 美元，但没有窗口内可核验的实物白银持仓变动发布时间，因此未将快照写成每日持仓事件。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld)](https://ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))" ] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮直接打开 CME Daily Bulletin 入口，返回 404；未用 CME 产品页、InFocus 文章、报价页、交割通知或搜索结果替代 Gold/Silver registered 与 eligible 库存表。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html)](https://cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html))"] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮打开上金所 2026-08-21 每日行情查询入口，页面只返回查询壳；另核验官方延时行情页，页面只提供 Au99.99 和 Ag(T+D)价格，不含出入库或库存字段，因此未用价格表替代硬覆盖。", "blocked_requirement": "硬性覆盖：COT（周六早）、美国 CPI、美国 PCE、非农、FOMC 决议、SGE 出入库（周频）、GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动、COMEX 金银库存分级变动；到相应发布时点必须输出事件，不得以「无新增」跳过。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"] }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮对上期所官方 AU、AG 仓单日报做定向检索，没有返回可读取的窗口内官方结果；历史公开日报入口仍返回应用防火墙人机识别页面，未用入口壳或交割通知替代仓单数字。", "blocked_requirement": "Tier A（优先，权威一手）：CFTC COT 持仓周报；SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报；LBMA 结算价与库存；WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报；美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话；BLS CPI 与非农；BEA PCE；美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/whbill/" ] }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线", "status": "no_new_row_in_window", "attempted_route": "本轮改查美国财政部官方 Real Yield XML 入口。最新可读 feed 更新时间为 2026-08-20T15:50:59Z，早于本窗口起点；数据日期为 2026-08-20，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 分别为 2.05%/2.18%/2.35%/2.73%/2.95%，未取得 2026-08-21 窗口内新行，因此没有把数据日期冒充本期发布时间。", "blocked_requirement": "Tier A（优先，权威一手）：CFTC COT 持仓周报；SHFE/SGE 公告与库存、仓单日报；LBMA 结算价与库存；WGC 央行购金与 ETF 季报；美联储 FOMC 决议、纪要、讲话；BLS CPI 与非农；BEA PCE；美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"] }, { "coverage": "上金所延时行情价格事件", "status": "timestamp_insufficient", "attempted_route": "本轮核验上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 21 日延时行情，Au99.99 最新价 978.0 CNY/g、Ag(T+D)最新价 16639.0 CNY/kg，较上一期频道快照分别变动 7.5 CNY/g 和 319.0 CNY/kg；源端只披露 2026 年 08 月 21 日日期，没有可核验的源端发布时间，无法诚实填充本期事件的 published_at_utc，因此未纳入事件数组。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"] } ] }