Columbus, Cincinnati and Memphis clear the 60% screen; one start, two waits
A 60% occupancy screen through the full cost stack leaves Columbus, Georgia at +$1,013 a month, Cincinnati at +$451 and Memphis at +$626, and then the permit decides which one is safe to start in the next 30 days.
The line between this week's three cities is a single sheet of paper. Columbus, Georgia models +$1,013 a month at 60% occupancy, Cincinnati +$451 and Memphis +$626, and all three have a licensed path for a leased, non-owner-occupied flat. What separates them is what the municipal counter will put in writing before the lease is signed.
Regulation weather: September 27 – October 4
Birmingham, Alabama moved from having no short-term rental rules to a permit regime in waiting. The City Council's Committee of the Whole voted 4-1 on Wednesday, September 30 to send a licensing ordinance to the full council, which takes it up on October 27. The proposal creates a business licence plus a short-term rental permit, requires liability insurance and a passed inspection, and names a responsible party who can reach the property within 30 minutes. Police logged 231 calls from properties identified as short-term rentals between January 1 and September 27. Where rentals may operate is still open. 1
Annapolis, Maryland raised the maximum fine for short-term rental violations from $1,000 to $5,000, approved at the Monday, September 28 council meeting and effective immediately. The city has been under a one-year moratorium on new licences since March 9, and a city report found nearly half its short-term rentals unlicensed. 2
DeWitt, New York adopted a local law on September 28 prohibiting short-term rentals of 29 nights or less in all residential zones, effective January 1, 2027. DeWitt borders Syracuse, which this channel covered last week. 3
Encinitas, California went the other way. On September 28 the council told staff to stop inspecting the whole property of an on-site host and gave initial approval to extending a permit from one year to three and tightening transient occupancy tax collection. A second vote is required. 4
What cleared the screen
Every week this channel runs the same filter over mid-sized North American metros: population between 100,000 and 800,000, market nightly revenue at 60% occupancy above 1.35 times the local two-bedroom rent, a regulation light of green or yellow, and at least one operator publicly running three or more units profitably in the past year.
| City | Population | 2BR asking rent | Market ADR | Occupancy | Nightly revenue at 60% | Rent × 1.35 hurdle | Market score | Regulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus, GA | 202,171 5 | $950 6 | $171 7 | 58% 7 | $3,078 | $1,283 | 94 | GREEN |
| Cincinnati, OH | 314,367 8 | $1,432 9 | $166 10 | 58% 10 | $2,988 | $1,933 | 91 | GREEN |
| Memphis, TN | 609,647 11 | $995 12 | $150 13 | 60% 13 | $2,700 | $1,343 | 98 | GREEN |
Three markets passed the top line and died further down the model.
Cedar Rapids, Iowa has the busiest demand of anything screened — 81% occupancy on 376 listings, Market Score 100 — and a $117 rate against a $1,165 rent that lands at −$20 a month once the platform fee and running costs come out. 1415
Fayetteville, North Carolina runs 63% occupancy across 832 listings, and a $109 rate against a $1,142 rent leaves −$119. 1617
Fargo, North Dakota has the numbers — a $138 rate against a $925 rent — and no published rule an operator can read: Chapter 20 of the Fargo Municipal Code lists no short-term rental use category. 181920
The assumptions behind every figure below. One 2BR unit, listed 365 nights a year, modelled at 60% occupancy — 18 booked nights a month. The nightly rate is AirDNA's market average daily rate across all bedroom counts, because the public market page reports one rate for the whole market; that average is the model's biggest assumption. Cleaning fees stay out of revenue and are matched against the cleaner's invoice instead. Rent is Zillow's average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment. The unit is furnished for $6,000, amortised over 24 months. Insurance is a commercial host policy. The platform fee is Airbnb's host-only 15.5%. Lodging tax is treated as a pass-through collected from the guest, so check whether the platform collects it locally.
Columbus, Georgia
Snapshot. Population 202,171. Two-bedroom asking rent $950. Market ADR $171, occupancy 58%. AirDNA Market Score 94, seasonality 85 out of 100. Regulation light: green. 56721
Where to look. Midtown, around the two hospital campuses: Piedmont Columbus Regional and St. Francis-Emory Healthcare both sit in or beside it, and both are on the city's own list of major employers. 22 Furnished Finder's Columbus listings advertise their distance to "Fort Benning & Piedmont Hospitals" and cluster around Weracoba and Lakebottom parks. 23 The second pool is the Fort Moore corridor north of downtown along I-185: the Army installation is the metro's largest employer, and postings, schools and family visits run on their own calendar. 24
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $171 | $3,078 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$477 |
| Net platform revenue | $2,601 |
| Base rent | −$950 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Short-term rental permit, $40 a year | −$3 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$1,013 |
Regulation gate. Columbus licenses short-term vacation rentals through Inspections and Code under Chapter 4, Article 9 of the Unified Development Ordinance, adopted as Ordinance 18-45 in 2018 and amended by Ordinance 23-008 in 2023. 25 You need a certificate of occupancy, a $40-per-unit permit renewed annually, $500,000 of liability coverage, a police background check on the owner, the applicant and the 24/7 contact person, and a business licence from the Revenue Division; the permit number goes on every advertisement. 26 The city's own instructions answer the question that usually kills an arbitrage file: "If the applicant is leasing the property to use as a short-term-vacation rental, a lease signed by both parties is required and the lease must state that it can be used for a short-term-vacation rental." Read sections 4.9.1 through 4.9.10, then section 4.9.10 in full — inside ten named historic districts, non-owner-occupied permits are capped from 2 in Dinglewood to 35 Downtown, issued first come, first served, with renewal preference to the incumbent.
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 157 furnished rentals in Columbus with 87 available now, the thinnest mid-term pool of the three. 23
Risks. The historic-district caps are the trap: an address inside one of those ten districts can be closed to a non-owner-occupied permit, and the city publishes no live count of what is left. Three code violations in twelve months revokes the permit and rejects applications for the address for a year. Neighbour notification is required before an initial permit. Georgia sets no statewide short-term rental permit, so everything rides on the city ordinance. Seasonality scores 85, a real seasonal swing; the public page reports the score and names no trough month, so the model uses the score and nothing more specific. 21
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: pull the zoning district and historic-district status for two or three candidate addresses and ask Inspections and Code in writing how a transient use is treated there. Weeks 3–6: write the subletting right into the lease in the words the city uses, and line up the 24/7 contact person inside 50 miles. Weeks 7–10: furnish, then file the certificate of occupancy, permit and business licence together. Weeks 11–13: list, and hold the first month's revenue.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? YES, conditional. The model clears, the permit is cheap and administrative, and Columbus is the one city here whose published instructions spell out the leased-unit path. The condition is the address: confirm in writing that the parcel sits outside the capped historic districts and that its zoning allows the use.
Cincinnati, Ohio
Snapshot. Population 314,367. Two-bedroom asking rent $1,432. Market ADR $166, occupancy 58%. AirDNA Market Score 91, seasonality 78. Regulation light: green. 891027
Where to look. Uptown — Corryville, Clifton and Avondale — where the University of Cincinnati, UC Health and Cincinnati Children's sit within a mile of each other. Cincinnati Children's reports more than 19,600 employees and calls itself the region's second-largest employer. 28 Furnished Finder's Cincinnati listings name Corryville, Clifton and Avondale, priced by their walk to the medical campus. 29 The second pool is Downtown and Over-the-Rhine, where Kroger, Procter & Gamble, Fifth Third, Cintas and GE Aerospace all keep headquarters and the convention and Findlay Market traffic fills the weekends the hospital calendar leaves open. 30
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $166 | $2,988 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$463 |
| Net platform revenue | $2,525 |
| Base rent | −$1,432 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Short-term rental registration, $250 over three years | −$7 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$451 |
Regulation gate. Cincinnati registers short-term rentals under Municipal Code Chapter 856, ordained as Ordinance 0125-2019. 31 Registration costs $250, runs three years, is non-transferable, and must be posted inside the unit with the city's advisory. 32 The rules answer the arbitrage question directly: the city will accept an application from an operator "that does not control the property yet," will not approve one without "the authority from the property owner," and holds the application open for 30 days while that authority is obtained. Read Chapter 856 and the department's rules, then section 856-17 — a building of four or fewer units has no cap on registrations, and a larger building allows four registrations plus one for every additional four units. 33
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 624 furnished rentals in Cincinnati with 357 available now, advertised from about $1,500 to $3,000 a month. 29
Risks. The building cap is the one people miss: a five-unit building allows four registrations, the count runs first-applied first-approved, and apartment buildings hold most of the city's supply. Three or more written citations in a year create a rebuttable presumption of nuisance, and a revoked registration cannot be re-registered for twelve months by anyone connected to it. The 7% short-term rental excise tax is collected and remitted by Airbnb on its own listings; other platforms may have no agreement with the city, and the operator carries whatever is not collected. Ohio's session carries two bills that would move the frame: Senate Bill 104, in the Senate Local Government Committee, would limit how far local governments can regulate short-term rentals and would require platforms to collect local lodging taxes, and a companion House Bill 109 had its third hearing in the House Development Committee on March 18, 2026. Neither has passed. 3435 Seasonality scores 78, the widest swing of the three. 27
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: confirm the building's unit count and how many registrations it has left. Weeks 3–5: put the short-term rental right in the lease and get the owner's written authority on the city's terms. Weeks 6–9: register, post the registration and the advisory, and confirm in writing how the platform handles the excise tax. Weeks 10–13: list, and open a furnished monthly listing beside the nightly calendar.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. The registration is cheap and the city accepts a tenant-operator, which puts Cincinnati closest to a green light. What is missing is a lease that names the use and a building with a registration still free.
Memphis, Tennessee
Snapshot. Population 609,647. Two-bedroom asking rent $995. Market ADR $150, occupancy 60%. AirDNA Market Score 98 and a seasonality score of 96 out of 100, the steadiest demand in the screen. Regulation light: green. 11121336
Where to look. Midtown — Cooper-Young, Evergreen and the streets around Overton Park — where Rhodes College, the edge of the University of Memphis and the restaurant strip give a year-round base; Furnished Finder's Memphis listings name Cooper-Young, Rhodes and Overton Park. 37 The second pool is Downtown and the Medical District, where St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare, Baptist Memorial Health Care and the UT Health Science Center sit together, and patient families and rotating clinicians book by the week. 38
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $150 | $2,700 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$419 |
| Net platform revenue | $2,281 |
| Base rent | −$995 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Short-term rental permit, $300 first year | −$25 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$626 |
Regulation gate. Memphis requires a short-term rental property permit under Chapter 5-44 of the City Code, added by Ordinance 5856 and applied to new operators from July 1, 2023. 39 The application is $300 with a $150 annual renewal, and the conditions carry weight: proof of $1,000,000 in liability coverage, a responsible party who lives within 50 miles, and the permit number printed on every listing. 40 The tax stack is Tennessee's 7% sales tax, Shelby County's 5% room occupancy tax, the city's 3.5% privilege tax and a $2 assessment per occupied room night; Airbnb remits the city taxes on its listings. 39 Read Chapter 5-44, then ask the Division of Public Works in writing what the city requires before it will issue a permit to an operator who leases rather than owns the unit. The ordinance hands the permit to "the owner of the property," and that single word decides whether Memphis is open to an arbitrage operator at all. 41
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 582 furnished rentals in Memphis with 271 available now, advertised from $850 to $5,900 a month and clustered in Midtown, East Memphis and Cordova. 37
Risks. Enforcement is the live risk in Memphis, more than the rule itself. In March 2026 the City Council asked the administration to bring in outside monitoring and report back within 90 days, after hearing that roughly nine in ten short-term rentals were operating without a permit; by June the planning department had begun sending compliance letters and counted 1,260 live short-term rental addresses with 49% registered. 42 The drive cuts both ways: it clears unlicensed competition, and it makes a leased unit without a clean permit the first file an inspector opens. Three verified violations can revoke a permit. Seasonality scores 96, the steadiest of the three, and the public page names no trough month. 36
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: get the permit-holder question answered in writing before signing anything. Weeks 3–5: put the subletting right, the permit responsibility and the named responsible party into the lease. Weeks 6–9: file the permit with the insurance certificate, then open the tax accounts. Weeks 10–13: list with the permit number posted, and test a furnished monthly listing against the nightly calendar.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. The margin is the second-best of the three and the demand is the steadiest in the screen. Everything turns on whether a leaseholder can hold the permit, and the city has published no answer.
The downside
Every number above assumes 60% occupancy and the market's average nightly rate. Both move, and all three markets already report occupancy at or below the 60% line: Columbus at 58%, Cincinnati at 58%, Memphis at 60%. At those observed rates the same cost stack pays $926, $377 and $626 a month. The 60% column is the underwriting case; the observed column is where the markets sit today.
| Occupancy | Columbus, GA | Cincinnati, OH | Memphis, TN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% — 15 nights | +$579 | +$40 | +$268 |
| 60% — 18 nights | +$1,013 | +$451 | +$626 |
| 70% — 21 nights | +$1,446 | +$882 | +$1,029 |
| Nightly rate | Columbus, GA | Cincinnati, OH | Memphis, TN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% below market | +$753 | +$208 | +$420 |
| Market rate | +$1,013 | +$451 | +$626 |
| 10% above market | +$1,273 | +$713 | +$877 |
Net monthly cash flow for one 2BR unit at three occupancy levels, using the same cost stack as every table above. Chart made by this channel from its own model; the underlying market figures are cited in the city tables.
Columbus clears $579 at 50% occupancy and $753 on a 10% rate cut, so it absorbs both shocks at once and still pays. Cincinnati sits $40 above zero on a soft occupancy year and $208 on a rate cut, which is why the reserve matters more there than the headline. Memphis lands between the two. Hold three months of the full cost stack — roughly $4,800 in Columbus, $6,200 in Cincinnati and $4,900 in Memphis — before the first guest arrives.
| City | 30-day answer | What would flip it |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus, GA | YES, conditional | Written confirmation that the address sits outside the capped historic districts and that its zoning allows a transient use |
| Cincinnati, OH | WAIT | A lease that names the short-term rental use, plus a building with a registration still free |
| Memphis, TN | WAIT | A written answer from Public Works that a leaseholder can hold the short-term rental permit |
Before you sign anything
- Get the licensing answer for the exact address in writing. Every green light in this issue is a city-level answer, and each of the three cities decides the address on top of that.
- Put subletting in the lease, and keep the words the city uses. Columbus asks for a lease that "must state that it can be used as a short-term-vacation rental"; Cincinnati approves a registration only with the owner's authority.
- Hold three months of the full cost stack in reserve. Cincinnati clears 50% occupancy by $40.
- Confirm who collects the lodging tax. Memphis stacks a 7% state tax, a 5% county tax, a 3.5% city privilege tax and $2 a night; Cincinnati's 7% excise is collected by Airbnb on its own listings and can fall back to you elsewhere.
- Re-run the P&L with your own rent quote and furnishing budget. The $6,000 furnishing figure is an assumption, and it is the line most operators underrun.
- Check the operator side yourself. No public disclosure in any of these three cities this week tied a named operator to three or more units, an explicit profit figure and a date inside the past twelve months, so peer validation remains open for all three.
Columbus is the file with the widest cushion and the clearest leased-unit path, and the one city here that clears every gate except the address. Cincinnati has the cheapest route to a licence and the thinnest downside. Memphis has the steadiest demand in the screen and a permit question the city has left open.
References
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- 4Encinitas council directs staff to ease off on some short-term rental policies
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- 5QuickFacts: Columbus city, Georgia
census.gov
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- 8QuickFacts: Cincinnati city, Ohio
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- 11QuickFacts: Memphis city, Tennessee
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- 22Major Employers | Columbus GA
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- 28Cincinnati Children's again named one of Ohio's best employers
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- 33Short Term Rental — Finance
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