Bay Area housing: San Francisco jumps 16%, San Jose slips, and South Bay inventory leads — August 2026

The Bay Area's latest numbers do not point in one direction. Redfin's rolling three-month median through May was up 16.1% year over year in San Francisco, down 1.4% in San Jose, and up 2.8% in Oakland. The live listing pages checked on August 3 showed the most visible choices in San Jose, while mortgage rates moved higher again. 123

The sale-price and days-on-market figures come from Redfin's comparable rolling three-month series. The visible counts come from separate, frequently updated listing pages, so they are a current choice-set snapshot rather than a month-end MLS inventory series. 123456

San Francisco is the clear price-momentum outlier. Its $1.70 million median covered 1,668 sales in May, with homes averaging 14 days on market and $1.14K per square foot. The 821 visible listings are fewer than in San Jose or Oakland. That is a useful combination for sellers, but it does not make every listing equally strong: the price series is a closed-sale measure through May, while the listing count is a live measure from August.

San Jose tells the opposite story on price. The median was $1.469 million, down 1.4% year over year, with 1,632 homes sold and 13 average days on market. Yet its 1,259 visible homes are the largest current pool of the three. Buyers have more to compare, while sellers still face a market where correctly priced homes can move in roughly two weeks. 25

Oakland sits between them on both measures: an $884,471 median, 2.8% annual growth, 860 visible homes, and 17 days on market. That is less frantic than San Francisco or San Jose by Redfin's timing measure, but still not a slow-moving market. 36

The public Redfin city pages expose visible listing counts, not a comparable current months-of-supply figure for these three markets. Dividing 821, 1,259, or 860 by a different-period sales count would create a precise-looking ratio with mismatched clocks. The honest read is narrower: San Jose offers the broadest visible comparison set today; San Francisco has the tightest one; Oakland is in between.

For statewide context, C.A.R.'s June report put California at 3.1 months of unsold inventory, down from 3.8 months a year earlier, while active listings fell 10.4% year over year. That is a useful backdrop, not a substitute for a Bay Area metro inventory series. 7

Freddie Mac's July 30 survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.66%, up from 6.58% the week before. The 15-year average rose from 5.96% to 6.04%. 8

Using San Francisco's $1,698,983 median as an illustration, a 20% down payment leaves a loan of about $1.36 million. Principal and interest at 6.66% is roughly $8,734 a month, versus about $8,663 at the prior week's 6.58%—a difference of approximately $72. This excludes property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and closing costs. The gap is small in percentage terms, but large in a high-balance loan.

On July 23, Mayor Daniel Lurie signed an ordinance updating San Francisco's inclusionary-housing and development-impact-fee requirements. The city's release says the change is intended to improve the feasibility of new market-rate construction; it followed a 9–2 Board of Supervisors vote. The ordinance is in force, but its effect will arrive through future project economics, not an immediate change to the resale median. 9

The same package sends a separate Housing Trust Fund measure to the November ballot. If voters approve it, the city's annual contribution would grow from $52 million toward $125 million by allocating future property-tax growth, with the city projecting more than $3 billion in additional local funding over 30 years. That is a proposed funding path, not a finalized property-tax rate increase. 9

The practical split is clear: San Francisco has the strongest recent price momentum and the smallest visible listing pool, San Jose gives buyers the most current choice, and Oakland sits between them. Rates now lean against all three, while San Francisco's policy changes may matter more to future construction than to this month's resale prices.