2026-09-04 22:30｜非农增16.2万，金银现货跌2.2%和3%

{ "schema_version": 1, "window": { "label": "上一次运行以来", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start_local": "2026-09-04 14:30:00+08:00", "end_local": "2026-09-04 22:30:00+08:00" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "BLS-AU-20260904-employment-situation", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 8 月非农增 16.2 万，失业率 4.1%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T12:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2, "AG": -2}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T12:30:00Z", "release_time_source": "8:30 a.m. ET Friday, September 4, 2026", "reference_period": "August 2026", "nonfarm_payroll_change_persons_actual": 162000, "nonfarm_payroll_change_persons_consensus": 56000, "nonfarm_payroll_change_persons_prior_reported": -23000, "nonfarm_payroll_change_persons_prior_revised": 21000, "unemployment_rate_pct_actual": 4.1, "unemployment_rate_pct_prior": 4.1, "labor_force_participation_rate_pct": 61.6, "participation_rate_change_percentage_points": 0.2, "average_hourly_earnings_usd_actual": 37.75, "average_hourly_earnings_monthly_change_usd": 0.10, "average_hourly_earnings_annual_change_pct": 3.1, "food_services_and_drinking_places_change_persons": 59000, "local_government_education_change_persons": 42000, "information_industry_change_persons": -23000, "consensus_source": "Reuters poll of economists" }, "transmission_chain": "非农实际增加 162000 人、高于预期 56000 人且 7 月由减少 23000 人修订为增加 21000 人→就业韧性提高、政策利率上行定价增强→实际利率与美元压力上升并压低 AU 和 AG 的无息资产吸引力", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 BLS 修订、美国就业或通胀数据使本次就业增幅与政策利率含义发生实质改变时，以最新可核验数据覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260904-payrolls-reaction", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透：非农后现货黄金跌 2.2%至 4376.04 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T13:01:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Reuters", "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T13:23:13.727Z", "quote_time_source": "1301 GMT", "spot_gold_usd_per_troy_ounce": 4376.04, "spot_gold_change_pct": -2.2, "us_december_gold_futures_usd_per_ounce": 4428.80, "us_december_gold_futures_change_pct": -2.4, "september_fed_rate_hike_probability_pct": 65, "pre_release_rate_hike_probability_pct": 55, "comparison_basis": "same Reuters report before and after the payroll release" }, "transmission_chain": "非农后 9 月美联储加息概率由约 55%升至约 65%→政策利率路径与实际收益率上行预期增强→现货黄金报 4376.04 美元并日跌 2.2%", "invalidation_conditions": "后续利率期货定价、实际收益率或路透对报价与概率的修订使本次方向失效时，以最新可核验记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260904-payrolls-reaction", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透：非农后现货白银跌 3%至 64.92 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T13:01:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -2}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Reuters", "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T13:23:13.727Z", "quote_time_source": "1301 GMT", "spot_silver_usd_per_troy_ounce": 64.92, "spot_silver_change_pct": -3.0, "september_fed_rate_hike_probability_pct": 65, "pre_release_rate_hike_probability_pct": 55, "comparison_basis": "same Reuters report before and after the payroll release" }, "transmission_chain": "非农后 9 月美联储加息概率由约 55%升至约 65%→政策利率路径与实际收益率上行预期增强→现货白银报 64.92 美元并日跌 3%", "invalidation_conditions": "后续利率期货定价、实际收益率或路透对报价与概率的修订使本次方向失效时，以最新可核验记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260904-trading-summary-revision", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上期所黄金持仓增 164 手至 384855 手", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T07:30:04Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:30:04Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Futures Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "source_update_time": "2026-09-04 15:30:04+08:00", "open_interest_contracts": 384855, "open_interest_change_contracts": 164, "volume_contracts": 365892, "turnover_cny_10000": 35549760.63, "comparison_basis": "daily change in open interest reported by SHFE" }, "transmission_chain": "黄金期货持仓日增 164 手至 384855 手且成交 365892 手→合约参与度与当日流动性得到更新→AU 期货短线供需状态获得中性数据输入", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续发布同一交易日修订值时，以最新官方汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260904.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260904-trading-summary-revision", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上期所白银持仓减 5367 手至 539928 手", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T07:30:04Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T07:30:04Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Futures Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "source_update_time": "2026-09-04 15:30:04+08:00", "open_interest_contracts": 539928, "open_interest_change_contracts": -5367, "volume_contracts": 789944, "turnover_cny_10000": 19358239.5615, "comparison_basis": "daily change in open interest reported by SHFE" }, "transmission_chain": "白银期货持仓日减 5367 手至 539928 手且成交 789944 手→合约参与度与当日流动性得到更新→AG 期货短线供需状态获得中性数据输入", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续发布同一交易日修订值时，以最新官方汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260904.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260904-warrant-inventory", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所黄金仓单 114858 千克，日变动为零", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Futures Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "inventory_kg": 114858, "daily_change_kg": 0, "previous_day_inventory_kg": 114858, "source_timestamp_precision": "date only" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所黄金仓单维持 114858 千克→可交割库存日度供给未变→AU 的交易所库存驱动保持中性", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所修订 9 月 4 日仓单数量或发布后续日度增减时，以最新官方记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260904/ZH/all.html" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260904-warrant-inventory", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所白银仓单增 6846 千克至 1406781 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Futures Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "inventory_kg": 1406781, "daily_change_kg": 6846, "previous_day_inventory_kg": 1399935, "source_timestamp_precision": "date only" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所白银仓单日增 6846 千克至 1406781 千克→可交割白银库存增加→AG 的交易所库存供给压力获得日度偏空输入", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所修订 9 月 4 日仓单数量或后续库存下降抵消本次增加时，以最新官方记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260904/ZH/all.html" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260904-au-td", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Au(T+D)收 965 元，日涨 1.36%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Gold Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "contract": "Au(T+D)", "close_cny_per_gram": 965.00, "change_cny_per_gram": 12.95, "change_pct": 1.36, "weighted_average_cny_per_gram": 966.72, "volume_kg": 38532.00, "turnover_cny": 37249957080.00, "market_open_interest_contracts": 250432, "delivery_volume_contracts": 11770, "source_timestamp_precision": "date only" }, "transmission_chain": "Au(T+D)收盘 965.00 元/克、日涨 12.95 元且成交 38532.00 千克→国内现货延期合约当日价格与流动性更新→AU 获得日度偏多的本地价格信号", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修订 9 月 4 日日行情或后续交易日价格反向覆盖本次日度变化时，以最新官方记录为准", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-09-04&end_date=2026-09-04" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260904-ag-td", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)收 16236 元，日涨 1.58%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Shanghai Gold Exchange", "source_date": "2026-09-04", "contract": "Ag(T+D)", "close_cny_per_kg": 16236.00, "change_cny_per_kg": 252.00, "change_pct": 1.58, "weighted_average_cny_per_kg": 16247.00, "volume_kg": 305060.00, "turnover_cny": 4956509794.00, "market_open_interest_contracts": 2886480, "delivery_volume_contracts": 17880, "source_timestamp_precision": "date only" }, "transmission_chain": "Ag(T+D)收盘 16236.00 元/千克、日涨 252.00 元且成交 305060.00 千克→国内白银现货延期合约当日价格与流动性更新→AG 获得日度偏多的本地价格信号", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所修订 9 月 4 日日行情或后续交易日价格反向覆盖本次日度变化时，以最新官方记录为准", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-09-04&end_date=2026-09-04" ], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "gap_id": "COMEX-registered-eligible", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改查 CME Daily Bulletin 页面这一条新入口，并复查官方 Registrar Reports 与金银库存下载入口；截至窗口结束仍未取得 Gold Stocks 或 Silver Stocks 的 registered、eligible 数值，CME 页面只显示报告入口。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html)](https://cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))" ] }, { "gap_id": "SGE-weekly-inventory-flow", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：SGE 出入库（周频）", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改查上金所 H5 周报入口、H5 详情页及 PDF 下载；最新可见仍为 2026 年第 33 期，发布日期 2026-08-31、覆盖 2026-08-24 至 2026-08-28，未取得覆盖本窗口的新周频出入库数字。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/h5_sjzx/hqzb", "https://www.sge.com.cn/h5_zdygz/pdfxq/10007537?topic=hqzb", "https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/31/d0e7e142116d4bc29e1cc42828daaeea.pdf" ] }, { "gap_id": "GLD-SLV-current-day-holdings", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "current_day_record_unavailable", "summary": "本窗口改查 SPDR 官方产品页、官方历史归档和 BlackRock/iShares 官方历史文件；截至 22:30 仍只有 GLD 2026-09-03 黄金持仓 33870494.55 金衡盎司、SLV 2026-09-03 流通份额 545150000 股，未取得 2026-09-04 日变动，因此没有把旧日期记录冒充本窗口事件。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://api.[spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en))", "[https://www.[blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual)](https://blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual))" ] } ] }