MLB Power Rankings Week 21: Milwaukee stays No. 1 as Detroit and St. Louis rise, Seattle falls
A three-source Week 21 composite ranks all 30 MLB teams and explains why Milwaukee holds No. 1 while Detroit and St. Louis rise and Seattle and Cleveland slide.
The top of the board is still a two-team argument, but the evidence underneath it has changed. Milwaukee owns the best record and the best run differential in the National League, while Los Angeles has the same positive run differential and a higher expected record. Detroit, St. Louis, and Toronto move up because their recent form or underlying numbers force the question; Seattle and Cleveland move down because neither the results nor the run profile is helping. This snapshot covers games through Sunday, Aug. 16, 2026. 1
The composite averages the ordinal lists from ESPN, published Aug. 13; MLB.com, published Aug. 17; and FanGraphs, whose Aug. 10 list covers Aug. 3-9. ESPN calls its article Week 20, while this edition covers the following seven-day window. The Athletic did not expose a current ordinal MLB list in the same window, so the table is labeled as a three-list composite rather than a four-source consensus. Ties use the current record, run differential, expected record, and recent form.
Pyth% is calculated from MLB's runs scored and allowed with a 1.83 exponent. 234All 30 teams ranked
E / M / F means ESPN rank, MLB.com rank, and FanGraphs rank. RD is run differential. X-W/L is MLB.com's expected record, the record implied by runs scored and allowed. The movement column compares this composite with last week's issue.| Rank | Team | Source ranks (E / M / F) | Record / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L / Pyth% | Move | Week 21 read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers 234 | 1 / 2 / 2 | 77-48 · 5-5 · W2 1 | +136 / 77-48 / 61.4% 1 | — | Milwaukee keeps the top line through the cleanest combination of record, run profile, and source agreement. |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers 234 | 2 / 1 / 6 | 74-51 · 5-5 · L2 1 | +136 / 77-48 / 61.2% 1 | — | Los Angeles has the same run differential as Milwaukee but trails in actual record and recent momentum. |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays 234 | 3 / 3 / 4 | 74-49 · 7-3 · L3 1 | +52 / 67-56 / 54.5% 1 | ▲1 (4→3) | Tampa Bay's 7-3 stretch and the AL's best record keep it ahead of the crowded next tier, even with three straight losses. |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves 234 | 4 / 4 / 5 | 74-50 · 5-5 · W1 1 | +117 / 74-50 / 59.8% 1 | ▼1 (3→4) | Atlanta's run margin is stronger than Tampa Bay's, but the Rays have the better current record. |
| 5 | Chicago Cubs 234 | 5 / 5 / 3 | 72-53 · 6-4 · L2 1 | +100 / 72-53 / 57.6% 1 | ▲1 (6→5) | Chicago's +100 differential and 6-4 week edge Atlanta in the composite tie-break. |
| 6 | Boston Red Sox 234 | 7 / 7 / 1 | 66-58 · 3-7 · L1 1 | +81 / 71-53 / 57.3% 1 | ▼1 (5→6) | FanGraphs still sees Boston as the strongest team in the group, while the official record shows a rougher week than the other top-six clubs. |
| 7 | New York Yankees 234 | 6 / 6 / 7 | 69-55 · 5-5 · W1 1 | +85 / 71-53 / 57.6% 1 | — | The Yankees retain a top-seven run profile while their lineup waits for injured stars to return. |
| 8 | Arizona Diamondbacks 234 | 9 / 9 / 8 | 66-59 · 5-5 · L1 1 | +18 / 64-61 / 51.5% 1 | ▲1 (9→8) | Arizona stays ahead of Philadelphia because its three source ranks are tighter and its run profile is better. |
| 9 | Chicago White Sox 234 | 11 / 8 / 10 | 65-58 · 6-4 · W3 1 | +47 / 66-57 / 53.8% 1 | ▼1 (8→9) | The White Sox lead the AL Central and have a winning run profile, but ESPN's No. 11 keeps them out of the top eight. |
| 10 | Philadelphia Phillies 234 | 8 / 11 / 11 | 67-58 · 6-4 · W3 1 | +9 / 63-62 / 50.7% 1 | — | Philadelphia's 6-4 week is better than its even-looking run profile, which keeps the Wild Card race unsettled. |
| 11 | San Diego Padres 234 | 10 / 10 / 12 | 67-58 · 8-2 · W1 1 | +3 / 63-62 / 50.3% 1 | ▲1 (12→11) | San Diego is the week's hottest team by record, but its three-run margin says the surge still needs more run-level confirmation. |
| 12 | Houston Astros 234 | 12 / 12 / 9 | 63-62 · 4-6 · L2 1 | -30 / 60-65 / 47.7% 1 | ▼1 (11→12) | FanGraphs is still three spots higher, but Houston's negative run profile makes a top-10 case premature. |
| 13 | Detroit Tigers 234 | 14 / 13 / 13 | 60-64 · 5-5 · L3 1 | +83 / 71-53 / 57.2% 1 | ▲3 (16→13) | Detroit's record is the odd part of the row: its +83 differential and 71-53 expected record look like a much better team than 60-64. |
| 14 | Miami Marlins 234 | 13 / 14 / 16 | 64-61 · 6-4 · W2 1 | +20 / 65-60 / 51.7% 1 | — | Miami has steadied after its July collapse, but the three sources still disagree on how high the recovery goes. |
| 15 | Texas Rangers 234 | 15 / 16 / 14 | 61-64 · 4-6 · L1 1 | -47 / 57-68 / 46.0% 1 | — | Texas stays in the middle because the source lists still see a contender while the ledger has slipped below .500. |
| 16 | St. Louis Cardinals 234 | 17 / 15 / 19 | 63-61 · 7-3 · W2 1 | +7 / 63-61 / 50.6% 1 | ▲5 (21→16) | St. Louis has the clearest record-based rise outside the top 15: 7-3 form, a winning record, and a source range that still reaches No. 19. |
| 17 | Cleveland Guardians 234 | 16 / 17 / 22 | 60-65 · 3-7 · L1 1 | -32 / 59-66 / 47.1% 1 | ▼4 (13→17) | Cleveland owns the widest source disagreement among the contenders, and its 3-7 week gives the lower FanGraphs rank more weight. |
| 18 | Minnesota Twins 234 | 19 / 19 / 17 | 60-65 · 4-6 · L3 1 | -48 / 58-67 / 46.4% 1 | ▼1 (17→18) | Minnesota's source ranks are close, but Joe Ryan's absence leaves a below-.500 team with little margin. |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles 234 | 22 / 20 / 15 | 61-63 · 5-5 · W3 1 | -26 / 59-65 / 47.9% 1 | ▲1 (20→19) | Baltimore's sweep of Tampa Bay pushed its short-term form upward, while FanGraphs remains much higher than ESPN. |
| 20 | Toronto Blue Jays 234 | 23 / 18 / 18 | 61-65 · 7-3 · L1 1 | -57 / 57-69 / 45.0% 1 | ▲4 (24→20) | Toronto's 7-3 stretch is real, but the -57 differential makes the climb a test of form rather than a clean strength signal. |
| 21 | Washington Nationals 234 | 18 / 22 / 21 | 60-66 · 4-6 · L3 1 | +18 / 65-61 / 51.2% 1 | ▲1 (22→21) | Washington scores like a better-than-.500 team, but the 4-6 week and James Wood's oblique issue restrain the move. |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Pirates 234 | 20 / 21 / 24 | 61-65 · 4-6 · W1 1 | +30 / 66-60 / 52.2% 1 | ▼3 (19→22) | Pittsburgh's positive run profile cannot erase a 4-6 week, and ESPN's ranking fell from 14 to 20. |
| 23 | Seattle Mariners 234 | 21 / 23 / 25 | 59-66 · 3-7 · W2 1 | -23 / 60-65 / 47.9% 1 | ▼5 (18→23) | Seattle has the week's clearest fall: ESPN describes a 12-22 run since July began, while FanGraphs has the club coming off a 1-5 stretch. 24 |
| 24 | New York Mets 234 | 25 / 25 / 20 | 56-69 · 7-3 · W3 1 | -42 / 58-67 / 46.5% 1 | ▲1 (25→24) | New York's 7-3 record deserves the one-place rise, but the -42 differential leaves the same question as Toronto: how much of the run is sustainable? |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds 234 | 24 / 24 / 23 | 59-64 · 4-6 · L2 1 | -86 / 53-70 / 42.8% 1 | ▼2 (23→25) | Cincinnati's source ranks are stable, but the -86 run differential and Hunter Greene's elbow surgery pull the floor lower. |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants 234 | 26 / 26 / 27 | 51-73 · 3-7 · L1 1 | -67 / 55-69 / 44.4% 1 | — | San Francisco has no positive form or run-profile case to move out of the bottom five. |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals 234 | 27 / 27 / 26 | 51-74 · 3-7 · W1 1 | -111 / 51-74 / 41.1% 1 | — | Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. as a real individual bright spot, but the team run profile remains bottom five. |
| 28 | Colorado Rockies 234 | 29 / 29 / 28 | 50-74 · 5-5 · W1 1 | -113 / 52-72 / 42.1% 1 | ▲1 (29→28) | Colorado's five wins in 10 games are a small form lift against a -113 run profile. |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels 234 | 30 / 28 / 29 | 49-76 · 5-5 · L1 1 | -86 / 54-71 / 42.9% 1 | ▲1 (30→29) | The Angels' expected record is five wins better than the actual ledger, but the current record still leaves them second from last. |
| 30 | Athletics 234 | 28 / 30 / 30 | 49-75 · 4-6 · W1 1 | -174 / 46-78 / 37.5% 1 | ▼2 (28→30) | The Athletics' -174 differential is the largest in MLB, and the three-list composite puts them back at the bottom. |
The moves that changed the board
Milwaukee keeps the top line; Los Angeles keeps the ceiling
Milwaukee and Los Angeles are separated by a thin statistical line. Both have a +136 run differential, while the Brewers have the better actual record at 77-48 and the Dodgers have the better expected record at 77-48. Milwaukee's 61.4% Pythagorean rate is only two-tenths above Los Angeles' 61.2%. The difference in this composite comes from the Brewers' first-place record and their 2-1 lead in the three-list average. 1
MLB.com's ranking kept Los Angeles first after Milwaukee won three of four at Dodger Stadium. FanGraphs put Milwaukee second and Los Angeles sixth, while ESPN put Milwaukee first and Los Angeles second. That gap is the useful part: the Brewers have the stronger current case, and the Dodgers still have a wider source-backed ceiling. 234
Detroit rises because the run ledger refuses to match the record
Detroit climbs three places, from 16th to 13th. The Tigers are 60-64, but their +83 run differential produces a 71-53 expected record and a 57.2% Pythagorean rate. The ranking lists are also unusually close at 13th, 14th, and 13th. 1234
The catch is the rotation. Detroit traded Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline, so the run margin describes what the Tigers have done while the roster question describes what they can repeat. ESPN points to Jackson Jobe's five scoreless innings in his return from Tommy John surgery and to the young position-player core as reasons to keep Detroit in the playoff conversation. 2
St. Louis and Toronto are the form risers
St. Louis jumps five places to 16th after going 7-3 with a two-game winning streak. MLB.com's ranking also gives Joshua Báez a memorable reason to watch: he hit three home runs in his first three at-bats in his debut against the Cubs. The Cardinals' +7 run differential keeps the rise measured; this is a hot team in a crowded middle, not a new top-tier club. 13
Toronto rises four places after a 7-3 stretch, but the club is 61-65 with a -57 differential and a 45.0% Pythagorean rate. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went on the seven-day concussion IL after colliding with Yankees shortstop George Lombard Jr. on Aug. 14, so the next test arrives with a damaged lineup. 15
Seattle and Cleveland lose the argument on both sides
Seattle falls five places, from 18th to 23rd. ESPN describes a 12-22 record since the start of July and the third-lowest OPS in the majors over that span; FanGraphs has the Mariners coming off a 1-5 stretch and starting a nine-game road trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee. The current 3-7 line gives the fall a short-term confirmation. 146
Cleveland drops four places to 17th. The Guardians are 3-7 over their last 10 and own a -32 run differential, while FanGraphs ranks them 22nd against ESPN's 16th and MLB.com's 17th. José Ramírez recorded his first extra-base hit after returning from the injured list, but MLB.com noted that he had slugged .219 across his first 18 games back. 13
What the numbers say beneath the rankings
The strongest buy-low rows
Detroit is the loudest buy-low signal: its 60-64 record trails a 71-53 expected record by 11 wins. Pittsburgh is five expected wins better than its actual record, and Washington is five wins better by the same comparison. Those gaps do not guarantee a rebound; they identify teams whose run distribution has been better than the standings. 1
The opposite warning appears in Toronto, where a 7-3 week sits on top of a -57 differential and a 45.0% Pythagorean rate. San Diego's 8-2 stretch is more encouraging, but its +3 differential and 50.3% Pythagorean rate still describe a team that has won close games rather than dominated opponents. The Mets have also gone 7-3 while carrying a -42 differential. 1
FanGraphs' Elo and WAR layer
FanGraphs' ranking model uses a modified Elo system that reacts to recent performance and blends it with playoff odds. In its current list, Boston ranks first, Milwaukee second, Chicago third, Tampa Bay fourth, and Atlanta fifth. The same page gives Milwaukee a 100.0% playoff probability, the Dodgers 100.0%, and Boston 95.6%. Those numbers explain why the source list can disagree with an ordinal composite without being an error: it is measuring a different thing. 4
The current FanGraphs WAR leaderboard has Pete Crow-Armstrong at 7.7 WAR, Shohei Ohtani at 6.6 total WAR, Yordan Alvarez at 5.7, Bobby Witt Jr. at 5.5, Jacob Misiorowski at 5.4, Dillon Dingler at 5.1, and Cristopher Sánchez at 5.0. That list gives the top of the table some useful texture: Chicago's ranking is not only a team result, Milwaukee has a dominant rookie starter at the top of the WAR board, and Detroit's rise has more than one young player behind it. 7
A same-date, all-30 team table for wRC+, rotation ERA/FIP, and bullpen ERA was unavailable from the accessible team-stat pages. Those fields are left out rather than mixed across different dates. The run-based layer above, FanGraphs' Elo scores, and the current WAR leaderboard keep the comparisons traceable. 4
Injury and roster watch
The injuries most likely to move next week's board are concentrated among teams already in the top half:
- Dodgers: Justin Wrobleski went on the 15-day IL with left forearm inflammation. Tyler Glasnow is expected to make his next, likely final, rehab start on Aug. 19, while Shohei Ohtani threw 34 pitches in his first bullpen session after restarting his throwing program. 5
- Yankees: Cody Bellinger is scheduled to start a Triple-A rehab assignment on Aug. 18. Aaron Judge has played catch but has not resumed swinging, and Carlos Rodón is scheduled for another appearance on Aug. 18. 5
- Red Sox: Masataka Yoshida went on the 10-day IL with a left hamstring strain, Justin Slaten went on the 15-day IL with right elbow inflammation, and Trevor Story began a rehab assignment. Roman Anthony is scheduled to begin his own rehab assignment on Aug. 18. 5
- Rays: Shane McClanahan is due back in the rotation against Baltimore on Aug. 17. MLB.com's ranking also flags Freddy Peralta's 7.53 ERA in three starts since arriving from the Mets. 35
- Diamondbacks: Nolan Arenado left the Aug. 16 game with left trunk discomfort and was scheduled for an MRI. Arizona's eighth-place composite depends on his middle-of-the-order availability. 5
- Padres: Joe Musgrove threw 70 pitches in his third rehab start, while Nick Pivetta still has no date for his next rehab appearance after elbow inflammation. San Diego's rotation depth remains part of the reason to keep the club above the pure hot-streak tier. 5
The next seven days that can change the board
MLB.com's schedule guide identifies five direct tests. The useful question is whether the teams can turn their current ranking case into a result against a recognizable opponent, not whether one series decides the season. 8
- White Sox at Cubs, Monday-Wednesday: Chicago's two best current records meet in the Crosstown Classic. The Cubs enter at 72-53 with the top NL Wild Card position, while the White Sox are 65-58 and lead the AL Central. Pete Crow-Armstrong's 7.7 FanGraphs WAR makes this a direct test of the composite's No. 5 team against its No. 9 team. 178
- Diamondbacks at Red Sox, Monday-Wednesday: Arizona is 66-59 and Boston is 66-58. The matchup tests whether Arizona's modest +18 differential can hold against a Red Sox team whose 71-53 expected record remains much stronger than its actual ledger. 18
- Marlins at Phillies, Monday-Wednesday: Miami and Philadelphia have split their first 10 games, and the Phillies have outscored the Marlins 46-42 in those meetings. Philadelphia is 67-58; Miami is 64-61. 18
- Braves at Brewers, Friday-Sunday: Atlanta and Milwaukee are two of the three best records in the league, and every game carries seeding and tiebreaker value with Los Angeles nearby. FanGraphs lists Jacob Misiorowski at a 1.76 ERA with 204 strikeouts in 133 innings through 22 starts. 18
- Twins at Padres, Friday-Sunday: San Diego is 8-2 in its last 10 and 67-58 overall, while Minnesota is 60-65 and has lost three straight. MLB.com reports an 11-4 Padres record in August and a 19-10 mark since the All-Star break, with Fernando Tatis Jr. posting an .872 OPS and 13 homers since ending his season-opening homerless run. 18
The board's next meaningful split is already visible. Milwaukee and Los Angeles are arguing over the top line; Detroit is arguing with its own record; Toronto and the Mets are arguing with their run differentials; and Seattle is running out of opponents against whom a rebound can hide. The next seven days put each argument in a direct series.
References
- 1MLB standings
mlb.com
- 2ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 20
espn.com
- 3
- 4FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 3-9
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 5MLB injury updates
mlb.com
- 6ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 20
espn.com
- 7FanGraphs WAR leaderboard
fangraphs.com
- 8
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