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MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee clinches as Cleveland and Texas take the division leads
2026-09-21

MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee clinches as Cleveland and Texas take the division leads

The final-week composite keeps Milwaukee at No. 1, drops Atlanta to fifth as Tampa Bay and New York pass it, and explains how Cleveland and Texas took their division leads, with FanGraphs odds, WAR, injuries and the six races left to settle.

MLB Power Rankings
MLB Power Rankings@NeoDrop Official
Milwaukee won the National League Central on Sept. 15 and starts the regular season's final week at 98-58, with the best record in baseball and the best run differential at +202. The Brewers are the first team to win the NL Central four seasons in a row. 12
Six postseason berths are locked and six remain open. Atlanta clinched the NL East on Sept. 20 by sweeping Houston, Boston joined the field the same day, and Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Los Angeles and New York were already through. Two division leads changed hands in the past seven days: Cleveland leads the AL Central by one game over the Chicago White Sox, and Texas leads the AL West by one over Houston. 23
Tampa Bay and New York each climbed a place and pushed Atlanta down two to fifth. Seattle took the board's largest fall, three places to 24th, while the New York Mets made the largest climb, three places to 22nd, on a run of form that their 71-85 record does not show. 145

How the composite works

The composite averages three current editorial lists: ESPN's Week 25 rankings published Sept. 17, The Athletic's rankings published Sept. 15, and MLB.com's rankings for the week of Sept. 20, published Sept. 21. The Athletic reports panel averages with one decimal place, so those values enter the calculation exactly as published. 145
The three lists do not cover the same days. ESPN carries its own record column, which runs behind the Monday standings — Milwaukee appears there at 95-57 and here at 98-58 — so only its ranks enter the average. MLB.com's final rankings of the regular season cover games through Sept. 20. When composite averages tie, teams are separated in sequence by current winning percentage, run differential, expected record, and last-10 form. 125
FanGraphs publishes its own ordinal list on a Monday-to-Sunday cycle, and the newest edition covers games of Sept. 7–13. That is a week behind this snapshot, so its Elo ratings and Power Scores stay out of the average and appear below as a second opinion instead. FanGraphs' playoff-odds and WAR tables, both updated the morning of Sept. 21, supply the analytical checks. 678
In the tables and notes below, RD is run differential, X-W/L is MLB's expected record, and ROS W% is FanGraphs' projected winning percentage for the rest of the regular season.

All 30 teams ranked

E / A / M indicates ESPN / The Athletic / MLB.com ranks. Movement compares this composite with the previous published composite through Sept. 13. Records, last-10 results, streaks, run differential and expected records reflect the Monday morning standings snapshot, taken with six games left for every club except Tampa Bay and New York, which have seven after a Sept. 22 doubleheader. 29
RankTeamE / A / MRecord / L10 / streakRD / X-W/LMoveFinal-week read
1Milwaukee Brewers1 / 1.0 / 1 14598-58 / 8-2 / W3 2+202 / 98-58 2—Milwaukee has matched its expected record exactly and carries a 13.6% World Series projection into the final week. Jacob Misiorowski's 6.5 WAR is the highest of any pitcher in baseball. 78
2Los Angeles Dodgers2 / 2.0 / 2 14596-60 / 7-3 / W4 2+193 / 98-58 2—Los Angeles won the NL West on Sept. 17 and owns baseball's highest World Series projection at 28.4%. Blake Snell left his Sept. 16 start after one inning with left groin tightness, and Shohei Ohtani is tracking toward a return in the Sept. 22–24 series against San Diego. 3710
3Tampa Bay Rays3 / 3.4 / 3 14595-60 / 8-2 / W2 2+83 / 86-69 2▲1Tampa Bay holds the American League's best record and a 99.0% division probability with a four-game series at Yankee Stadium ahead. Junior Caminero reached 40 home runs for the second consecutive season. 17
4New York Yankees4 / 4.0 / 5 14589-66 / 6-4 / L2 2+137 / 92-63 2▲1Cam Schlittler ranks seventh among all players at 6.1 WAR. Aaron Judge went on the 10-day injured list Sept. 19 with a right calf strain and has no timetable. 8910
5Atlanta Braves5 / 5.4 / 4 14592-64 / 7-3 / W3 2+120 / 91-65 2▼2Atlanta took the NL East on Sept. 20, its eighth postseason trip in nine seasons, and leads by six games with Chris Sale's 5.7 WAR at the top of the rotation. All three lists still moved the Braves down as the Rays and Yankees passed them. 34
6Chicago Cubs6 / 5.4 / 6 14587-69 / 6-4 / W2 2+152 / 92-64 2—Pete Crow-Armstrong leads every player in baseball at 10.4 WAR and sits four stolen bases from a 40-40 season. Alex Bregman left Sunday's game after a foul ball struck him in the face in the on-deck circle. 6810
7Philadelphia Phillies7 / 7.2 / 9 14586-70 / 4-6 / W1 2+29 / 81-75 2—Philadelphia holds an NL Wild Card spot at a 97.5% playoff probability and hosts Milwaukee this week. Jesús Luzardo played catch Sept. 20 after left shoulder inflammation, with his October availability still open. 7910
8Boston Red Sox9 / 7.8 / 7 14584-72 / 4-6 / L2 2+80 / 87-69 2—Boston clinched Sept. 20 after a 38-24 second half and now hosts Cleveland and then the Cubs to close the season. Payton Tolle has emerged behind Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez, and Boston has won 11 of his last 12 starts. 349
9San Diego Padres8 / 8.8 / 8 14587-69 / 9-1 / W5 2+41 / 82-74 2—San Diego is the only club in baseball at 9-1 over its last 10 and holds a 97.1% playoff projection. The Padres finish at home against Arizona, the team chasing them. 279
10Cleveland Guardians12 / 11.6 / 10 14581-75 / 7-3 / W5 2+2 / 78-78 2▲2Cleveland took the AL Central lead on a five-game winning streak and FanGraphs gives the Guardians 62.9% to win the division, plus 97.7% playoff odds. Parker Messick's 4.6 WAR leads a rotation of relative unknowns. 78
11Chicago White Sox11 / 12.0 / 11 14580-76 / 5-5 / W2 2+42 / 82-74 2▼1Chicago trails by a game in the AL Central and still holds a Wild Card spot, with FanGraphs at 37.1% for the division and 96.2% for the postseason. The White Sox play at Kansas City, then host Colorado. 79
12Arizona Diamondbacks10 / 11.2 / 13 14582-74 / 4-6 / W2 2-1 / 78-78 2▼1Arizona sits four games behind Philadelphia for the last NL playoff spot and closes the season with three games at San Diego. Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka are back off the injured list. 267
13Houston Astros13 / 14.8 / 14 14577-79 / 3-7 / L3 2-59 / 72-84 2—Houston lost the AL West lead while going 3-7 over its last 10, and FanGraphs still projects the Astros for a .553 rest-of-season winning percentage against Texas's .513. Yordan Alvarez has 6.4 WAR but a 103 wRC+ over three weeks. 267
14Toronto Blue Jays15 / 12.8 / 15 14577-79 / 4-6 / W1 2-42 / 73-83 2—Toronto is three games out of the last AL Wild Card spot with FanGraphs at 3.5%. Dylan Cease, 5.5 WAR across 169 innings, will miss his Sept. 23 start with shoulder fatigue pending an MRI. 7810
15Texas Rangers16 / 15.6 / 12 14578-78 / 6-4 / L1 2-34 / 74-82 2▲2Texas leads the AL West by a game at .500 despite a -34 run differential, and FanGraphs gives the Rangers 55.9% to take the division. Cal Quantrill, 5-1 with a 1.88 ERA in seven starts, went on the IL Sept. 20 with a right lat strain. 2710
16Pittsburgh Pirates14 / 15.2 / 16 14579-77 / 6-4 / W4 2+29 / 81-75 2▼1Pittsburgh's four-game winning streak has the club two games over .500 and within reach of a first winning season since 2018. The Pirates rank fifth in baseball in runs scored. 26
17Miami Marlins18 / 15.6 / 18 14576-80 / 4-6 / L3 2-3 / 78-78 2▼1Miami's run differential slipped back to -3 after briefly turning positive, keeping a 15-year streak of losing run differentials alive. Xavier Edwards is out with left thumb soreness. 1210
18Baltimore Orioles19 / 18.8 / 17 14575-81 / 5-5 / L3 2-31 / 75-81 2▲1Baltimore hosts Toronto and then the Yankees to finish. Jackson Holliday went on the IL Sept. 16 with left wrist inflammation, and Tyler O'Neill's season ended on the 60-day list. 2910
19St. Louis Cardinals17 / 18.2 / 20 14576-80 / 4-6 / W1 2-23 / 76-80 2▼1MLB.com's final ranking credits St. Louis with a strong lineup season behind Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Joshua Báez, Alec Burleson and Leo Bernal, and blames a bullpen collapse for the record. 5
20Detroit Tigers20 / 20.4 / 19 14573-83 / 6-4 / L2 2+68 / 85-71 2—Detroit is 10 games under .500 with a +68 run differential and an 85-71 expected record, on pace for the largest Pythagorean shortfall of any Wild Card-era team. Justin Verlander hopes to start Sept. 26 at Comerica Park. 126
21Washington Nationals23 / 22.2 / 21 14573-83 / 6-4 / L1 2+12 / 79-77 2▲2Washington has outscored the field to the tune of 798 runs, third in the majors, against a 79-77 expected record. The Nationals open the week at Detroit. 129
22New York Mets21 / 23.0 / 23 14571-85 / 3-7 / L1 2-41 / 74-82 2▲3ESPN moved the Mets up four places to 21st on a better second half that has them fighting Washington to stay out of the NL East cellar, even as the record slipped. MLB.com points to rookies Nolan McLean and Carson Benge as the new core. 15
23Minnesota Twins22 / 22.2 / 24 14573-83 / 4-6 / W1 2-64 / 72-84 2▼1Minnesota is without Byron Buxton, who had hip surgery Sept. 18. Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez all debuted this season and keep their rookie eligibility. 510
24Seattle Mariners24 / 22.4 / 22 14573-83 / 5-5 / W1 2-56 / 72-84 2▼3Seattle's playoff odds have fallen to 0.2% after the Athletics beat it twice on walk-off home runs in Sacramento. Andrés Muñoz owns the majors' highest blown-save count at 10. 167
25Cincinnati Reds25 / 24.8 / 25 14572-84 / 3-7 / L2 2-163 / 62-94 2▼1Cincinnati's -163 run differential belongs to a 62-94 expected record, and the Reds were eliminated Sept. 14. Chase Burns, a 4.3-WAR rookie, went on the IL Sept. 20 with a groin strain. 2810
26Kansas City Royals26 / 26.2 / 26 14567-89 / 3-7 / L4 2-102 / 68-88 2—Bobby Witt Jr. is third in the majors at 6.6 WAR and leads the American League. Kansas City hosts the White Sox and Cleveland, the two clubs still fighting for the AL Central. 589
27San Francisco Giants27 / 26.8 / 27 14564-92 / 3-7 / L3 2-84 / 69-87 2—Rafael Devers finished his season at 37 home runs before core surgery, and Logan Webb has allowed 23 runs in 21⅔ innings over his last five starts. Manager Tony Vitello has discussed shutting Webb down. 610
28Athletics28 / 28.2 / 29 14561-95 / 3-7 / L6 2-223 / 58-98 2—The Athletics own baseball's worst run differential at -223 on a six-game losing streak, and their home ERA at Sutter Health Park is 6.30 against 4.49 on the road. 12
29Los Angeles Angels29 / 28.8 / 28 14560-96 / 4-6 / L1 2-87 / 69-87 2—Los Angeles is third in the majors in ERA since the All-Star break and second in rotation ERA. Reid Detmers has 4.6 WAR, and rookie Walbert Ureña has a 2.88 ERA across 25 starts. 18
30Colorado Rockies30 / 29.4 / 30 14557-99 / 2-8 / L1 2-177 / 63-93 2—Colorado has to win all six of its remaining games to avoid a fourth straight 100-loss season. Only the Athletics have a worse run differential. 25

The moves that changed the board

Tampa Bay and New York pass Atlanta

The largest structural change sits at the top of the board, and it is positional rather than numerical. Tampa Bay moved up one place to third, New York up one to fourth, and Atlanta fell two to fifth. All three clubs won their week, and Atlanta won its division, so the shift came from the lists rather than the standings: The Athletic pushed the Braves from third to a tie for fifth while lifting the Rays from 5.3 to 3.4 and the Yankees from 5.3 to 4.0, and MLB.com moved both Tampa Bay and New York ahead of Atlanta as well. 145
The underlying form supports the move. Tampa Bay went 8-2 and swept Houston, and FanGraphs gives the Rays a 99.0% chance at the AL East and a 10.7% chance at the World Series, the third-highest in baseball. New York went 6-4 but lost its last two, and its run differential of +137 is the best in the American League. Atlanta's own week was the best of the three at 7-3, which is why the drop is one or two places rather than more. 267

Cleveland and Texas take the division leads

The two biggest climbs outside the Mets belong to the clubs that grabbed a division lead. Cleveland rose two places to 10th after winning five straight to pass the White Sox in the AL Central; MLB.com was the most aggressive, moving the Guardians from 12th to 10th, and The Athletic followed from 12th to 11th. The Guardians have done it with a +2 run differential and a rotation that leads with Parker Messick's 4.6 WAR. 258
Texas rose two to 15th on the same logic, and again MLB.com led: its final list jumped the Rangers four places, from 16th to 12th, after a 6-4 week that put them a game ahead of Houston at .500. That record sits on a -34 run differential and a 74-82 expected record, which is why the other two lists held the Rangers closer to 16th. FanGraphs' model splits the difference, giving Texas 55.9% for the division against Houston's 43.9%. 257

Seattle drops three, the week's largest fall

Seattle fell three places to 24th, more than any other club, after the Athletics beat the Mariners twice in Sacramento on walk-off home runs, the second on Andrés Muñoz's 10th blown save of the season — the highest total in the majors. The Mariners did set a franchise record with a 19-1 win in between. 16
Two things share the blame. The closer situation has cost Seattle games all season, with Muñoz allowing an .856 OPS in high leverage against .294 in medium leverage and .471 in low leverage, and the team carries a -56 run differential and a 72-84 expected record. The projections still like the roster: FanGraphs rates Seattle's rest-of-season winning percentage at .588, the second-highest in baseball, against playoff odds of 0.2%. That gap is the clearest example on the board of a team whose talent and situation have come apart. 127

The Mets climb three on a form bet

The board's largest rise went to a team whose record got worse. The Mets climbed three places to 22nd, because ESPN moved them up four, from 25th to 21st, on a better second half that has New York fighting Washington to avoid last place in the NL East. The other two lists moved them one place or held them. 145
That is the trade-off the composite makes visible: a 71-85 record and a -41 run differential sit next to a projection of 74-82, and the three lists read the same evidence differently. Washington gained two places to 21st for a related reason. The Nationals are 73-83, three games better than the Mets, and their +12 run differential is the better part of 20 games apart from New York's; they have scored 798 runs, third in the majors. 12

Analytics check

FanGraphs' Sept. 21 model separates the field into clubs that are effectively through and four spots still genuinely contested. Eleven teams sit at 96% or better: the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs at 100%, the Guardians at 97.7%, the Phillies at 97.5%, the Padres at 97.1% and the White Sox at 96.2%. The open spots are the AL Central and the AL West. The third AL Wild Card and the last NL Wild Card sit at 96.2% and 97.5%, where only a collapse opens a path. 7
Contested spotLeader (odds)Chaser (odds)Deciding number
AL CentralGuardians, 62.9% 7White Sox, 37.1% 7Guardians lead by 1.0 game with six to play 2
AL WestRangers, 55.9% 7Astros, 43.9% 7Rangers lead by 1.0 game with six to play 2
AL EastRays, 99.0% 7Yankees, 1.0% 7Rays lead by 6.0 games, but the clubs meet four times 29
Third AL Wild CardWhite Sox, 96.2% 7Blue Jays, 3.5% 7Blue Jays trail by 3.0 games with six to play 2
Third NL Wild CardPhillies, 97.5% 7Diamondbacks, 5.4% 7Diamondbacks trail by 4.0 games and close at San Diego 29
Houston's 45.2% playoff probability runs almost entirely through the division title: FanGraphs gives the Astros a 1.3% chance at a Wild Card berth. 7
Los Angeles holds the largest World Series projection at 28.4%, well clear of Milwaukee at 13.6% and Tampa Bay at 10.7%. Cleveland sits fourth at 7.5%, a rating built on its rest-of-season projection of .523. Detroit, at 0.7% playoff odds while 10 games under .500, is the extreme case in the other direction. 27
The individual WAR board is a two-player race at the top and a crowd behind them:
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs): 10.4 WAR, the highest total in the majors by 3.7 wins. He needs four stolen bases for a 40-40 season. 68
  • Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 6.7 WAR across 596 plate appearances and 85.2 innings, second overall and second only to Crow-Armstrong, with his pitching season already over. 8
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): 6.6 WAR, the American League's leader among position players. 58
  • Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) and Cam Schlittler (Yankees): 6.5 and 6.1 WAR. They are the only starting pitchers above 6.0, and their clubs' division probabilities rest on them. 78
Record and run differential still point in opposite directions for three clubs. Detroit is 73-83 with a +68 differential and an 85-71 expected record, which FanGraphs calls the largest Pythagorean shortfall of any Wild Card-era team. Cincinnati is 72-84 with a -163 differential and a 62-94 expected record. Colorado is 57-99 with a -177 differential. Detroit and Cincinnati carry nearly identical records, 73-83 and 72-84, while their run differentials sit 231 runs apart. 26
FanGraphs' own ordinal board, which covers games of Sept. 7–13 rather than this week, is worth reading as a second opinion because it disagrees with the editorial lists in three places. Its top five were Milwaukee (1621 Power Score), Tampa Bay (1615), New York (1610), Boston (1605) and Los Angeles (1602), which put the Red Sox fourth while all three editorial lists place them seventh or worse. It also ranked Houston 10th and Toronto 12th, above Cleveland and Arizona, and its biggest movers were Tampa Bay and San Diego at +5 and Atlanta and Philadelphia at -4. The list flags Detroit and the Athletics as Elo risers, the White Sox and Rockies as Elo fallers, and Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Cubs as having faced the toughest recent opposition. 6

Injury watch

Seven days of roster news has reshaped the rosters that will decide this week and, for most of them, October:
  • Aaron Judge (Yankees): Placed on the 10-day injured list Sept. 19 with a right calf strain after three weeks back from a rib injury. Judge is hopeful for the postseason and the club has set no timetable, which leaves the AL East chase and the Wild Card round in doubt. 310
  • Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): On the injured list with left knee and right biceps soreness and on track to return during the Sept. 22–24 series against San Diego. He will not pitch again in 2026. 110
  • Blake Snell (Dodgers): Left his Sept. 16 start against Cincinnati after one inning with left groin tightness, threw from 90 feet on Sept. 18, and is expected to make at least one more start before the season ends. 10
  • Cal Quantrill (Rangers): On the 15-day injured list from Sept. 20 with a right lat strain. Quantrill was 5-1 with a 1.88 ERA in seven starts after effectively replacing Nathan Eovaldi, who returned Sept. 19 and threw 45 pitches in 2⅔ innings. 110
  • Alex Bregman (Cubs): Left Sunday's game after a foul ball struck him in the face while he waited in the on-deck circle. Chicago's bullpen is the other concern, with Edward Cabrera allowing a two-run homer in the ninth of a Sept. 15 loss. 110
  • Dylan Cease and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): Cease will miss his Sept. 23 start with shoulder fatigue while Toronto waits on a Sept. 19 MRI; Guerrero left Sunday's game with lower back tightness. 10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Phillies): Played catch Sept. 20 after left shoulder inflammation, and could return for the postseason. Philadelphia's rotation depth is the reason its Wild Card position matters less than it might. 410
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees): On the injured list since Sept. 18 with a sprained right thumb and could be activated as early as Sept. 22. Trent Grisham's hamstring strain may also clear in time for October. 610
  • Rafael Devers and Logan Webb (Giants): Devers finished the season at 37 home runs and had core surgery. Webb has allowed 23 runs in 21⅔ innings over his last five starts, and the club has discussed shutting him down. 610
  • Justin Verlander (Tigers): Faced hitters in a one-inning simulated game Sept. 18, throwing about 20 pitches, and hopes to make a final start Sept. 26 at Comerica Park. 110
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Underwent hip labrum surgery Sept. 18, ending his season. 10
  • Chase Burns (Reds): Placed on the 15-day injured list Sept. 20 with a right groin strain, ending the rookie's season at 4.3 WAR. 810

What the final week tests

The season ends Sept. 27, and the Wild Card Series opens Sept. 29. Before then, six games for every club except Tampa Bay and New York settle four races. 39
  • Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (Sept. 22–24, four games): The two clubs with the best records in the American League meet four times in three days because of a Sept. 22 doubleheader that makes up a May 23 postponement. The Rays lead by six games, so the Yankees need a sweep to make the last weekend matter; FanGraphs still prices the division at 99.0% for Tampa Bay. 279
  • Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox (Sept. 22–24), and Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (Sept. 22–24): The AL Central's co-leaders spend the week 1,700 miles apart and never meet again. Cleveland then finishes at Kansas City while Chicago hosts Colorado, so a one-game division lead has to be defended against two eliminated clubs. 29
  • San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (Sept. 22–24): The two teams that have won their weeks most convincingly meet at Dodger Stadium. San Diego is 9-1 over its last 10 and would take the season series lead with two wins; Los Angeles has won four straight and is 50-28 at home. Both clubs then play clubs below .500 to finish. 29
  • Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (Sept. 22–24): The best record in baseball against the club holding the third NL Wild Card spot. Milwaukee is already through and Philadelphia is 97.5% to join it, so the series is about seeding and about a Phillies team that has gone 4-6 over its last 10. 279
  • New York Mets at Texas Rangers (Sept. 22–24): Texas defends a one-game AL West lead while Houston plays two games at Seattle and then four at the Athletics. The Rangers and Astros do not meet again, so the division comes down to which club handles the weaker opposition. 29
  • Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (Sept. 22–24), then at San Diego Padres (Sept. 25–27): Arizona's path to the last NL playoff spot ends with three games against the team holding it. The Diamondbacks trail by four games and FanGraphs gives them 5.4%, so the final weekend is likely the last chance to close the gap in the season's last series. 279

References

  1. 1
    ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 25

    espn.com

  2. 2
    MLB Standings and Records: Regular Season

    mlb.com

  3. 3
    Teams to clinch spots in 2026 MLB playoffs

    mlb.com

  4. 4
    The Athletic MLB Power Rankings

    nytimes.com

  5. 5
    MLB Power Rankings for the week of September 20, 2026

    mlb.com

  6. 6
    FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 7–13

    blogs.fangraphs.com

  7. 7
    FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds

    fangraphs.com

  8. 8
    FanGraphs WAR Leaderboards

    fangraphs.com

  9. 9
    MLB Stats API, games of Sept. 21–27, 2026

    statsapi.mlb.com

  10. 10
    MLB injury updates

    mlb.com

MLB Power Rankings
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Related content

  • How the composite works
  • All 30 teams ranked
  • The moves that changed the board
  • Tampa Bay and New York pass Atlanta
  • Cleveland and Texas take the division leads
  • Seattle drops three, the week's largest fall
  • The Mets climb three on a form bet
  • Analytics check
  • Injury watch
  • What the final week tests