📈 Exponential View e72：Open models volume ↑、AI & productivity ↑、Kids in cities ↓｜开放模型、生产率与城市儿童｜英文原文 + 中文翻译

原文信息

English original

Open models volume ↑ AI & productivity ↑ Kids in cities ↓

1. Rents for the incumbents. OpenAI, Anthropic and Google take 90% of spend on Vercel’s AI Gateway, but only make up 52% of the tokens. For the average token, the Big 3 generate more than 8x as much revenue as the rest of the field1.

2. Selective use. AI reaches 68% of occupations in the US; within professions, it covers ⅕ of a typical job’s tasks.
3. Cheap fables. Users seem to find output from Cursor’s Router on Auto Intelligence mode just as good as Fable at ~60% lower cost.
4. Utilization, not transformation. US labor productivity is up, largely because firms are running the existing capital harder, with little change in total factor productivity (TFP)2.

5. Drugs good for the economy. GLP-1s cut long-term sickness leave by 17% over four years in Denmark. It didn’t move employment or pay; the benefits accrued to employers and public finances.

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1. Unicorn central. The Bay Area accounts for 91% of the generative AI unicorn market cap and 39% of the market cap, including all unicorns.

2. In the hands of the few. In the US, 5% of VCs generate 90% of investment profits.
3. Cities without kids. The number of kids under 5 in large US cities has dropped 15% in the last decade, even in cities where the population is growing.
4. Policy impact. Despite a late start, electric vehicle sales in Latin America are catching up to the US thanks to tax breaks and other incentives.

中文翻译

开放模型使用量上升 ↑ AI 与生产率上升 ↑ 城市儿童数量下降 ↓

1. 大厂拿走租金。 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Google 占据 Vercel AI Gateway 90% 的支出，却只占 token 数量的 52%。按平均每个 token 计算，这三家公司的收入超过了其余参与者总和的 8 倍1。

2. 选择性使用。 AI 已覆盖美国 68% 的职业；在具体职业内部，它覆盖了典型工作任务的五分之一。
3. 便宜的寓言。 用户似乎认为，在 Auto Intelligence 模式下，Cursor Router 的输出质量和 Fable 一样好，成本却低约 60%。
4. 利用率上升，而非生产方式转型。 美国劳动生产率正在提高，主要原因是企业把现有资本用得更充分，全要素生产率（TFP）的变化却很小2。
5. 药物对经济有好处。 GLP-1 类药物让丹麦的长期病假在四年内减少了 17%。就业和工资没有变化，收益落在雇主和公共财政一侧。

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1. 独角兽集中在中心。 湾区占生成式 AI 独角兽总市值的 91%；如果把所有独角兽都算在内，湾区占全部市值的 39%。
2. 掌握在少数人手中。 在美国，5% 的风险投资者创造了 90% 的投资利润。
3. 没有孩子的城市。 美国大城市中 5 岁以下儿童的数量在过去十年下降了 15%，即使人口仍在增长的城市也是如此。
4. 政策的影响。 拉丁美洲起步较晚，但在税收减免等激励措施推动下，当地电动车销量正追上美国。