
A three-list post-deadline composite puts Milwaukee first and Los Angeles second, with Boston, Houston and San Diego rising while the standings separate hot streaks from sustainable strength.
RD is run differential. X-W/L is MLB.com's expected record, the record implied by runs scored and allowed. Pyth% appears in the analytics section below and is calculated from the same runs scored and allowed with a standard 1.83 exponent. The source range shows the highest and lowest position among the three ordinal lists. A wide range means the outlets are reading the same team differently.| Rank | Team | Record, form | RD / X-W/L | Move | Source range | Week 20 read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers 125 | 74-44, 7-3, W2 3 | +141 / 74-44 3 | ▲1 | 1-2 | The best record, the best run differential, and a four-game Dodger Stadium test make this a deserved promotion rather than a ceremonial flip. |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers 125 | 70-48, 2-8, L1 3 | +138 / 73-45 3 | ▼1 | 1-3 | The slide is real, but so is the run profile; Blake Snell's scheduled Aug. 11 return gives the rotation a near-term answer before Milwaukee arrives. 7 |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves 125 | 71-47, 8-2, W1 3 | +120 / 71-47 3 | — | 3-4 | Atlanta has the cleanest current form among the top four, and Ronald Acuña Jr. has supplied four August homers in eight games. 4 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays 125 | 71-46, 8-2, W6 3 | +46 / 63-54 3 | — | 3-5 | Tampa Bay has the AL's best record and a six-game winning streak, but its expected record is eight wins lower; the Griffin Jax elbow issue is the roster watch. 7 |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox 125 | 64-53, 8-2, L2 3 | +84 / 68-49 3 | ▲2 | 1-7 | Boston owns the week's strongest combination of form and underlying record, although the source range says the outlets disagree on how much to trust the surge. |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs 125 | 69-50, 7-3, W1 3 | +107 / 70-49 3 | — | 5-6 | Pete Crow-Armstrong leads FanGraphs' current WAR board at 8.0, while Chicago's +107 differential keeps the club securely in the top six. 8 |
| 7 | New York Yankees 125 | 66-52, 5-5, L1 3 | +82 / 68-50 3 | ▼2 | 6-7 | The Yankees' run profile still looks like a top-six team; George Lombard Jr.'s two early homers make the Mariners series a more interesting lineup test. 4 |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox 125 | 61-56, 5-5, W2 3 | +37 / 62-55 3 | ▲1 | 8-10 | A positive run profile and a winning expected record keep Chicago ahead of the more glamorous teams with worse ledgers. |
| 9 | Arizona Diamondbacks 125 | 63-56, 6-4, W1 3 | +5 / 60-59 3 | ▲2 | 8-10 | Arizona is 14-9 since the All-Star break, but a +5 differential leaves little margin for a bad series in Atlanta. 4 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Phillies 125 | 63-56, 6-4, W1 3 | +0 / 60-59 3 | ▼2 | 9-11 | Luis Arraez has started quickly after the deadline, but Philadelphia's even run differential makes the Twins series a measurement, not a victory lap. 4 |
| 11 | Houston Astros 125 | 60-59, 6-4, L2 3 | -28 / 57-62 3 | ▲6 | 8-11 | Houston got the largest composite lift after adding Daulton Varsho, but the negative run profile says the jump still needs proof. 2 |
| 12 | San Diego Padres 125 | 62-57, 7-3, W2 3 | -10 / 58-61 3 | ▲7 | 12 | San Diego is the cleanest post-deadline mover: every source puts it 12th, and the club added Casey Mize and Robbie Ray to a rotation that needs the help. 2 |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians 125 | 58-61, 3-7, L2 3 | -27 / 56-63 3 | — | 13-16 | Cleveland's aggressive deadline and Angel Genao's four-hit debut add upside, but the current 3-7 stretch points the other way. 29 |
| 14 | Miami Marlins 125 | 60-59, 5-5, W2 3 | +15 / 61-58 3 | ▲6 | 13-17 | Miami has stopped the bleeding, but Kyle Stowers' Aug. 9 hamstring discomfort is a reminder that the roster is still moving. 7 |
| 15 | Texas Rangers 125 | 59-59, 4-6, L1 3 | -33 / 55-63 3 | ▼3 | 14-18 | The source lists still respect Texas, but a .500 record, a -33 differential, and a 55-63 expected record make this a cautious hold. |
| 16 | Detroit Tigers 125 | 58-60, 7-3, W2 3 | +87 / 68-50 3 | ▲5 | 15-19 | Detroit has the league's loudest buy-low run profile, but its rotation must now replace a two-time Cy Young winner. |
| 17 | Minnesota Twins 125 | 58-61, 4-6, L2 3 | -35 / 56-63 3 | ▲1 | 14-21 | The record is close enough to keep Minnesota in the Wild Card conversation, but Joe Ryan's IL stint arrives before a difficult Phillies series. 47 |
| 18 | Seattle Mariners 125 | 56-63, 3-7, L4 3 | -19 / 57-62 3 | ▼3 | 15-19 | Seattle has the weakest current form among the AL West contenders and must face the Yankees before its Houston test; the next week can change its position quickly. 4 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates 125 | 58-62, 3-7, L1 3 | +21 / 62-58 3 | ▼9 | 14-20 | Pittsburgh's positive run profile cannot cover a 3-7 stretch; Oneil Cruz's rehab assignment is the clearest upside still on the roster. 7 |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles 125 | 57-61, 5-5, W1 3 | -33 / 56-62 3 | ▲2 | 17-23 | The Orioles' transition is easier to see after Adley Rutschman moved to Boston; Chris Bassitt's rehab return is a smaller short-term positive. 27 |
| 21 | St. Louis Cardinals 125 | 59-59, 5-5, W1 3 | -8 / 58-60 3 | ▼5 | 19-24 | St. Louis sold from a position already weakened by a poor July; the ranking reflects a reset, not a sudden collapse in the record. 2 |
| 22 | Washington Nationals 125 | 59-61, 4-6, W3 3 | +24 / 62-58 3 | ▼8 | 21-23 | Washington scores runs better than its record suggests, but the recent 4-6 stretch and a crowded NL East keep the number from floating upward. |
| 23 | Cincinnati Reds 125 | 56-61, 6-4, L3 3 | -74 / 51-66 3 | ▲1 | 21-24 | The 6-4 stretch is the argument for Cincinnati; Hunter Greene's season-ending elbow surgery is the argument against a larger rise. 7 |
| 24 | Toronto Blue Jays 125 | 56-63, 6-4, L1 3 | -59 / 53-66 3 | ▼1 | 22-24 | Toronto's 6-4 week matters less than its -59 differential, while Trey Yesavage and Yimi García add real rotation and bullpen uncertainty. 7 |
| 25 | New York Mets 125 | 52-67, 6-4, W1 3 | -43 / 55-64 3 | — | 25 | Juan Soto has resumed light baseball activity, but the current record and -43 differential still make this a future-facing roster. 7 |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants 125 | 49-69, 3-7, L2 3 | -63 / 52-66 3 | — | 26 | Matt Chapman's likely season-ending surgery removes the clearest reason to expect a late climb. 7 |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals 125 | 49-70, 3-7, L1 3 | -110 / 49-70 3 | — | 27-28 | Bobby Witt Jr. remains a 5.1-WAR bright spot, but no individual return can erase a -110 run differential. 8 |
| 28 | Athletics 125 | 47-71, 2-8, W2 3 | -164 / 44-74 3 | — | 27-30 | The A's have the worst run differential in baseball, even after winning two straight. Zack Gelof's rehab is the only near-term roster lift listed by MLB. 7 |
| 29 | Colorado Rockies 125 | 46-72, 4-6, L1 3 | -110 / 50-68 3 | ▲1 | 27-29 | Colorado's 4-6 stretch is less damaging than its -110 differential; a slightly better source range does not change the bottom-three picture. |
| 30 | Los Angeles Angels 125 | 45-73, 3-7, L2 3 | -91 / 50-68 3 | ▼1 | 29-30 | The Angels' expected record is five wins better than their actual record, but the club still has MLB's worst record and no positive current form signal. |
| Team | Actual W-L | RD | X-W/L | Pythagorean win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 74-44 | +141 | 74-44 | 62.4% |
| Dodgers | 70-48 | +138 | 73-45 | 61.9% |
| Braves | 71-47 | +120 | 71-47 | 60.5% |
| Red Sox | 64-53 | +84 | 68-49 | 57.9% |
| Tigers | 58-60 | +87 | 68-50 | 58.0% |
| Astros | 60-59 | -28 | 57-62 | 47.7% |
| Padres | 62-57 | -10 | 58-61 | 49.1% |
| Twins | 58-61 | -35 | 56-63 | 47.2% |
| Mariners | 56-63 | -19 | 57-62 | 48.2% |
| Rangers | 59-59 | -33 | 55-63 | 47.0% |
| Series | Dates | Question it answers |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox at Blue Jays | Monday-Thursday | Can Boston's post-streak form survive a four-game road set against a Toronto team that has won six of nine in the season series? 4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | Tuesday-Thursday | Does Seattle's 3-7 slide deepen, or can it take ground from a Yankees club that is 5.5 games behind Tampa Bay? 34 |
| Phillies at Twins | Thursday-Sunday | Can Philadelphia's new Arraez-led lineup hold its Wild Card position against Minnesota, which is only 1.5 games out but has a minus-35 differential? 34 |
| Brewers at Dodgers | Thursday-Sunday | Which top-two case survives a four-game head-to-head: Milwaukee's record and depth, or Los Angeles' run differential and new rotation ceiling? 34 |
| Diamondbacks at Braves | Friday-Sunday | Can Arizona's 14-9 post-All-Star record hold up against Atlanta's 8-2 last 10 and a division-leading run profile? 34 |
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