黄金4392美元：油价与美债收益率继续上行

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-18 20:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-18T12:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-gold-silver-price-update-1201", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货金降至 4392.86 美元，现货银跌 1.1%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T01:05:23.096Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T12:01:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 98, "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T01:05:23.096Z", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T12:12:07.352Z", "source_event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T12:01:00Z", "spot_gold": "4392.86 USD per ounce", "spot_gold_change": "-0.5%", "US_gold_futures_December": "4449.50 USD per ounce", "US_gold_futures_change": "-0.5%", "spot_silver": "65.08 USD per ounce", "spot_silver_change": "-1.1%", "prior_window_snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-18T06:24:00Z", "prior_window_spot_gold": "4397.42 USD per ounce", "prior_window_spot_silver": "65.32 USD per ounce", "change_from_prior_window_snapshot": "spot gold -4.56 USD per ounce; spot silver -0.24 USD per ounce" }, "transmission_chain": "金银现货与期货较上一窗口快照继续走弱→能源上涨与美债收益率上行抬高无息资产机会成本→AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同一交易时段金银价格收复并稳定在本次快照之上，或能源与美债收益率回落并改变当前利率传导时，本次短线方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-us-long-yields-update-1102", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美国 30 年期收益率升至 5.3232%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T01:16:40.535Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T01:16:40.535Z", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T11:02:10.620Z", "source_event_date": "2026-08-18", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 市场汇总正文未给出 5.3232%和 4.7339%的独立精确观察时刻，因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。", "US_30Y_Treasury_yield": "5.3232%", "US_30Y_Treasury_yield_change": "+1.42 basis points", "US_10Y_Treasury_yield": "4.7339%", "US_10Y_Treasury_yield_change": "+0.99 basis points", "prior_window_US_30Y_Treasury_yield": "5.321%", "prior_window_US_10Y_Treasury_yield": "4.7259%" }, "transmission_chain": "美国 30 年期和 10 年期名义收益率较上一窗口继续上行→持有无息贵金属的相对机会成本上升→AU 与 AG 估值承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国长端收益率回落至本次更新值下方且金银不再同步走弱，或新数据反转当前通胀与财政风险定价时，本次收益率方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-fed-hike-probability-346", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "9 月联储加息概率降至 34.6%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T01:16:40.535Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 94, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T01:16:40.535Z", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T11:02:10.620Z", "source_event_date": "2026-08-18", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 引用 CME FedWatch 概率，但正文未给出该概率的独立精确观察时刻，因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。", "September_Fed_hike_probability": "34.6%", "September_Fed_hike_probability_one_week_prior": "48.4%", "probability_change": "-13.8 percentage points" }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息定价较一周前下降→预期政策利率路径下移→AU 与 AG 的无息资产机会成本压力缓和", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国通胀、就业或联储沟通使 9 月加息概率重新升至本次更新值之上，或金银对利率预期不再作出正向反应时，本次预期传导失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-oil-price-1031", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "布伦特报 90.94 美元，WTI 报 85.03 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T01:13:03.490Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T10:31:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T01:13:03.490Z", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T11:02:22.013Z", "source_event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T10:31:00Z", "Brent_crude": "90.94 USD per barrel", "Brent_change": "+0.08%", "WTI": "85.03 USD per barrel", "WTI_change": "+0.63%", "session_context": "Brent and WTI were at their highest since July 30 and July 31, respectively, earlier in the session", "streak": "third consecutive session of gains" }, "transmission_chain": "油价升至 7 月底以来高位→中东冲突延长带来的能源供给风险推升通胀定价与避险需求→AU 与 AG 地缘风险溢价获得支撑但同时面临收益率上行约束", "invalidation_conditions": "后续停火或能源运输恢复使油价回落并削弱供给风险定价，或长端收益率上行成为主导因素时，本次油价传导失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-fading-us-iran-peace-hopes-raise-supply-risks-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-fading-us-iran-peace-hopes-raise-supply-risks-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-fading-us-iran-peace-hopes-raise-supply-risks-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-fading-us-iran-peace-hopes-raise-supply-risks-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-hormuz-shutdown-0945", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "伊朗称霍尔木兹将继续关闭", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T09:45:08.141Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": {"AU": 2, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T09:45:08.141Z", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T10:44:45.632Z", "source_event_date": "2026-08-18", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 仅说明伊朗谈判代表的声明由周二国家媒体发布，未给出议会发言的独立精确时刻，因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。", "Iranian_statement": "Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the U.S. meets the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June", "speaker": "Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, top Iranian negotiator", "listed_conditions": "lifting the blockade of Iranian ports; lifting oil sanctions; releasing Tehran's frozen assets; ending threats and military operations on all fronts", "prewar_flow_context": "a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed through the Strait before the war" }, "transmission_chain": "伊朗谈判代表称霍尔木兹关闭将持续至美国满足临时协议条件→能源运输中断风险与中东冲突持续时间预期上升→AU 避险溢价和 AG 地缘风险溢价获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "美国与伊朗达成并执行满足所列条件的新协议、霍尔木兹恢复通行，或后续一手消息否认该声明时，本事件的地缘传导失效。", "source_urls": [ 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"status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 SGE 数据资讯公开入口，页面只回到历史黄金 ETF 栏目并将每日行情默认日期指向 2026-08-17，没有 2026-08-18 AU/AG 仓单或出入库数据行；SHFE 英文参考价格入口仍返回人机识别页，未取得窗口内仓单数字。" }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮读取美国财政部官方 Real Yield Curve CSV，最后一行仍为 2026-08-17，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 实际收益率为 2.13%/2.27%/2.44%/2.84%/3.06%，未出现 2026-08-18 窗口内新行，因此不把该旧行作为本窗口事件。" } ] }