2026-08-19 22:30｜黄金4370美元，9月联储按兵不动概率升至67%

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-19T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-19T14:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260819-gold-1220", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货黄金报 4370.02 美元/盎司", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-19T12:20:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "source_observation_utc": "2026-08-19T12:20:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price": 4370.02, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": 0.8 }, "us_gold_futures": { "price": 4424.70, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": 0.1 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold": 4337.59, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta": 32.43, "delta_pct": 0.74765 } }, "transmission_chain": "美元走弱且全球债券收益率从多年高位回落→无息黄金的相对持有成本下降→现货黄金升至 4370.02 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若美元和长端收益率重新上行并使现货黄金跌回本次观察值下方，当前反弹状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260819-silver-20260819", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货白银报 63.80 美元/盎司", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "source_observation_date": "2026-08-19", "spot_silver": { "price": 63.80, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": 0.8 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_silver": 62.68, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta": 1.12, "delta_pct": 1.786854 } }, "transmission_chain": "美元与债券收益率回落→贵金属整体的机会成本下降→现货白银报 63.80 美元/盎司并上涨 0.8%。", "invalidation_conditions": "若美元或收益率反弹并使现货白银跌破本次观察值，当前白银修复状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-fedhold-20260819", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "9 月美联储按兵不动概率升至 67%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T12:45:07.832Z", "pricing_source": "CME FedWatch Tool", "september_2026_fed_hold_probability_pct": 67, "september_2026_fed_hike_probability_pct": 33, "unit": "%", "prior_channel_snapshot": { "september_2026_fed_hold_probability_pct": 64, "september_2026_fed_hike_probability_pct": 36, "hold_change_percentage_points": 3, "hike_change_percentage_points": -3 } }, "transmission_chain": "市场对 9 月联储维持利率不变的定价升至 67%→未来政策利率与收益率上行风险暂时下降→AU 与 AG 的持有机会成本下降。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续官方数据或 FOMC 会议纪要使 9 月加息概率重新升高，当前持稳定价状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-inches-higher-focus-fed-minutes-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-treasury-buyback-1341", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美国财政部将长债回购规模增至至少 40 亿美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T13:41:41.914Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T13:49:27.966Z", "buyback_operation_size_prior": { "amount": 2, "unit": "USD billion per operation" }, "buyback_operation_size_new": { "amount": 4, "qualifier": "at least", "unit": "USD billion per operation" }, "sectors": ["10-year to 20-year", "20-year to 30-year"], "effective_period": { "start_date": "2026-09-09", "end_date": "2026-11-04" }, "change": "doubled from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion per operation" }, "transmission_chain": "财政部扩大长端名义债券流动性支持→长端债券供需与收益率的即时压力下降→AU 与 AG 的无息资产机会成本下降。", "invalidation_conditions": "若回购计划执行后长端收益率仍持续上行，或通胀冲击重新推高实际利率，当前利多传导状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-bond-dollar-1353", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "全球长端收益率最多下行 10 个基点", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T13:53:56.488Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T13:53:56.488Z", "long_dated_government_yields_change": { "maximum_change_bps": -10, "unit": "basis points" }, "us_30_year_treasury": { "tuesday_high_description": "nearly 5.34%", "unit": "%" }, "dollar_index": { "value": 99.018, "change_pct": -0.6, "unit": "index points" }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "dollar_index": 99.67, "delta": -0.652, "delta_pct": -0.654159, "unit": "index points" } }, "transmission_chain": "财政部扩大回购后长端收益率最多下行 10 个基点且美元指数跌至 99.018→美元与利率折现压力减轻→AU 与 AG 获得短线支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "若长端收益率重新突破前一交易日约 5.34%的 30 年期高点并带动美元指数回升，当前利率与美元缓解状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-oil-1302", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "布伦特报 91.20 美元，WTI 报 85.10 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-19T13:02:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T13:30:43.498Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T13:30:43.498Z", "source_observation_utc": "2026-08-19T13:02:00Z", "brent": { "price": 91.20, "unit": "USD/barrel", "change": 0.18, "change_pct": 0.2 }, "us_west_texas_intermediate": { "price": 85.10, "unit": "USD/barrel", "change": 0.16, "change_pct": 0.19 }, "prior_day_close": { "brent": 91.02, "wti": 84.94, "unit": "USD/barrel" } }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹运输不确定性与其他供应扰动使油价接近三周高位→能源价格的通胀压力与联储路径风险上升→AU 与 AG 面临更高的实际利率和持有成本压力。", "invalidation_conditions": "若霍尔木兹通行恢复并使布伦特回落至本次观察值下方，当前能源供给风险状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-uncertainty-over-exports-through-hormuz-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-uncertainty-over-exports-through-hormuz-2026-08-19/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-uncertainty-over-exports-through-hormuz-2026-08-19/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-uncertainty-over-exports-through-hormuz-2026-08-19/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260819-au9999-close", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 收盘 945.22 元/克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T14:43:02Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_data_date": "2026-08-19", "source_response_date_header_utc": "2026-08-19T14:43:02Z", "contract": "Au99.99", "open": 952.00, "high": 959.99, "low": 939.50, "close": 945.22, "unit": "CNY/g", "change": -9.94, "change_pct": -1.04, "weighted_average": 943.46, "volume": 4359.14, "volume_unit": "kg", "prior_day_close": 955.16, "prior_day_close_unit": "CNY/g" }, "transmission_chain": "上金所 Au99.99 较前一交易日收盘下跌 9.94 元/克→人民币计价黄金的日内风险偏好走弱→AU 短线价格压力增加。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续上金所 Au99.99 收盘价重新站回 955.16 元/克上方，当前日线走弱状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-19&end_date=2026-08-19" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260819-agtd-close", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)收盘 15391 元/千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T14:43:02Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -2}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_data_date": "2026-08-19", "source_response_date_header_utc": "2026-08-19T14:43:02Z", "contract": "Ag(T+D)", "open": 15860.00, "high": 15920.00, "low": 15279.00, "close": 15391.00, "unit": "CNY/kg", "change": -606.00, "change_pct": -3.79, "weighted_average": 15411.00, "volume": 313372, "volume_unit": "kg", "market_open_interest": 2941204, "prior_day_close": 15910.00, "prior_day_close_unit": "CNY/kg" }, "transmission_chain": "上金所 Ag(T+D)较前一交易日收盘下跌 606 元/千克→白银的高波动与工业属性放大风险偏好收缩→AG 短线价格压力强于 AU。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续上金所 Ag(T+D)收盘价重新站回 15910 元/千克上方，当前日线走弱状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-19&end_date=2026-08-19" ], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查 SPDR Gold Shares 官方产品页与 iShares Silver Trust 官方产品页。iShares 页面仅返回截至 2026-08-18 的 SLV 快照，Ounces in Trust 为 493290546.60、Tonnes in Trust 为 15343.05，页面没有本窗口内持仓变动的发布时间证据；SPDR 页面没有可核验的窗口内 GLD 实物持仓变动。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))" ] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查 CME 官方 Metals Issues and Stops Report 页面，返回 403 反爬拦截，未取得窗口内 COMEX 黄金或白银 registered/eligible 分项数字；未用入口错误页代替库存事实。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.html))" ] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查上金所 2026-08-19 每日行情官方查询页，取得 Au99.99 与 Ag(T+D)价格、成交量和持仓等字段，但页面没有窗口内库存、仓单或完整出入库数据行，因此仅发布价格事实。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-19&end_date=2026-08-19" ] }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查上期所官网、statements 页面与 products/metal 公开入口，均返回应用防火墙人机识别页面，未取得窗口内 AU 或 AG 仓单数字。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/products/metal/" ] }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线", "status": "no_new_row", "attempted_route": "本轮下载美国财政部官方 2026 年 Real Yield CSV，最新数据行仍为 2026-08-18，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 分别为 2.10%/2.24%/2.41%/2.81%/3.03%，未出现 2026-08-19 新行，因此未把旧数据冒充本窗口事件。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv))" ] } ] }