LIN (Linde plc) — the world's largest industrial gas company, ROE expanding to 18%, trading near a 5-year P/E low with a $10B project backlog
Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN) passes all three hard screening criteria: three-year ROE of 15.61% / 17.23% / 18.04% (FY2023–FY2025, SEC EDGAR verified), five consecutive years of positive FCF ($4.9B–$6.6B annually), and a trailing P/E of 33.0x that sits 8% below its own 5-year average. The article covers Linde's on-site take-or-pay gas supply model and its near-absolute switching costs, the FCF compression story (CapEx up 70% in five years for hydrogen and clean energy buildout), a full peer valuation table vs. APD / SHW / ECL / PPG / DD / LYB, balance sheet health (D/E 0.75x, interest coverage 15.5x), six risk factors including a 1,156:1 insider sell-to-buy ratio and rising debt, Q1 2026's record 27.8% operating margin and raised FY2026 guidance, and a bull-vs-bear thesis framed around whether Q2 FCF recovery justifies the premium multiples.
Current price: $497.69 (May 29, 2026 close, −$16.82 / −3.27%) · Market cap: ~$230.6B · Sector: Materials / Industrial Gases 1
Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN) is the world's largest industrial gases company by revenue and market capitalization. At $497.69, the stock sits 4.5% below its 52-week high of $521.28 after a +16.7% year-to-date advance — and it enters this screen with three consecutive years of return on equity above 15%, $5B+ in annual free cash flow, and an operating margin that is the highest in its sector by nearly 10 percentage points. The tension worth examining: the trailing P/E of 33.0x sits 8% below its 5-year average (the cheapest it has been on that measure since 2019), while P/B at 5.97x stands 38.5% above its 5-year average. That divergence — P/E contracting while P/B expands — reflects a company growing earnings faster than book value through buybacks and margin expansion. Whether the current price is a reasonable entry point or a premiums-everywhere trap is what this analysis works through. 12
What Linde does and why the model is defensible
Linde plc is the product of the 2018 merger of Linde AG (Germany) and Praxair (United States) — the two largest industrial gas companies in the world at the time. The combined entity is registered in Ireland and operationally headquartered in the United Kingdom, with global operations spanning 80+ countries. 3
The business is simple to describe but structurally difficult to compete with. Linde produces atmospheric gases — primarily oxygen, nitrogen, and argon, which are separated from air using large cryogenic distillation columns — along with process gases such as hydrogen, carbon dioxide, helium, and specialty gases used in semiconductors and life sciences. Its customers include steel mills, petrochemical plants, hospitals, chip fabs, food processors, and automotive manufacturers.
What makes the model defensible is the on-site gas supply structure. For large industrial customers — a steel mill that uses hundreds of thousands of cubic meters of oxygen per day, for example — the most cost-effective solution is not deliveries from cylinders but a dedicated air separation unit (ASU) built on or adjacent to the customer's site, owned and operated by Linde, and connected to the customer's process through a pipeline. The contracts governing these installations are typically structured as long-term take-or-pay agreements (industry standard: 15–20 year terms) with price escalators tied to energy costs and a minimum volume commitment regardless of how much the customer actually uses. 4
The switching cost embedded in these arrangements is near-absolute. Tearing out an ASU and switching to a competitor requires shutting down the customer's industrial process — typically a cost that runs to hundreds of millions of dollars and months of downtime. In practice, customers renew. This is the mechanism behind Linde's revenue predictability: once an on-site contract is signed, the cash flows are essentially annuity-like for the contract duration.
Linde's three operational segments are Americas, EMEA, and APAC. Within those geographies, its revenue breaks into on-site/pipeline supply (the ASU-anchored model), merchant liquid (truck-delivered cryogenic liquids), and packaged/cylinder gases (higher-margin, lower-volume specialty and welding gases). The engineering services segment, which designs and builds gas plants for third parties, adds an additional revenue stream tied to industrial investment cycles. 5
ROE track record — SEC EDGAR verified
All figures below use net income attributable to Linde plc shareholders divided by Linde plc stockholders' equity (excluding noncontrolling interests), per SEC EDGAR XBRL data (CIK 0001707925). 5
| Fiscal year | Net income (parent) | Shareholders' equity | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 (ended Dec 31, 2023) | $6,199M | $39,720M | 15.61% ✓ |
| FY2024 (ended Dec 31, 2024) | $6,565M | $38,092M | 17.23% ✓ |
| FY2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025) | $6,898M | $38,245M | 18.04% ✓ |
All three years clear the 15% threshold, and the trajectory is upward. Two engines drive the expansion: earnings growing at roughly 5% per year in FY2024–2025, while the equity base stays flat at approximately $38B — compressed by an aggressive buyback program that returned $4.6B to shareholders in FY2025 alone. 15
The FY2023 jump from the mid-teens (FY2022 ROE was approximately 10.4%) requires a note: restructuring charges collapsed from $1,029M in CY2022 to $40M in CY2023, providing roughly 3 percentage points of operating margin relief. The underlying earnings power was already improving — adjusted for restructuring, net income grew approximately 20.5% in FY2023 — but the headline step-up was partly a one-time tailwind. 5
Free cash flow and shareholder returns
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FCF (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures), SEC EDGAR basis: 5
- FY2021: $9,725M OCF − $3,086M CapEx = $6,639M
- FY2022: $8,864M OCF − $3,173M CapEx = $5,691M
- FY2023: $9,305M OCF − $3,787M CapEx = $5,518M
- FY2024: $9,423M OCF − $4,497M CapEx = $4,926M
- FY2025: $10,350M OCF − $5,261M CapEx = $5,089M (first year-over-year recovery, +3.3%)
The decline from 2021 to 2024 reflects a deliberate capital deployment decision, not operational deterioration. CapEx rose 70.5% over five years ($3.1B → $5.3B) as Linde invested in hydrogen production infrastructure, electronics-grade specialty gas plants, and new on-site ASU projects. OCF grew only 6.4% over the same period — meaning free cash flow absorbed the full force of the growth investment. FY2025's $5.1B FCF signals the trough may be behind it: OCF accelerated to $10.35B (+9.9% year-over-year), partially offsetting continued CapEx growth. 5
FCF yield at current price: $5,089M ÷ $230,600M market cap = 2.21%. That is less than half the peer median FCF yield of 4.06% — the most stretched valuation metric in the LIN story. 1
Shareholder returns, FY2021–FY2025: Linde returned $35.3B to shareholders over five years — $22.8B in repurchases (averaging $4.6B/year) and $12.5B in dividends. The share count fell from 516.9M (FY2021 weighted average basic) to 469.5M (FY2025), a 9.2% reduction that mechanically amplified per-share earnings growth. 5
Revenue, earnings, and margin expansion
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Revenue grew at a 2.5% five-year CAGR ($30.8B → $34.0B), a number that looks modest until you see what happened to earnings. Net income compounded at 15.9% annually over the same period ($3.8B → $6.9B), driven entirely by margin expansion rather than top-line volume: 567
| Year | Revenue | Net income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $30,793M | $3,826M | 16.2% | 12.4% |
| FY2022 | $33,364M | $4,147M | 16.1% | 12.4% |
| FY2023 | $32,854M | $6,199M | 24.4% | 18.9% |
| FY2024 | $33,005M | $6,565M | 26.2% | 19.9% |
| FY2025 | $33,986M | $6,898M | 26.3% | 20.3% |
The step-change in FY2023 — operating margin jumping 8.3 percentage points to 24.4% — reflects the Praxair merger synergies reaching maturity. Combined with the collapse in restructuring charges, Linde's cost structure reset at a fundamentally different level. Gross margin has widened from 43.0% (FY2021) to 48.8% (FY2025), a 580 basis point improvement that demonstrates pricing power and input cost management rather than a one-time event. 8
The most recent data point: Q1 2026 revenue of $8,781M (+8.2% year-over-year), net income of $1,857M (+11.0%), and operating margin of 27.8% — a new record. 5 Revenue and EPS both beat consensus estimates, and Linde raised the lower end of its FY2026 guidance on May 1, 2026. 9
Diluted EPS trend: $7.33 (FY2021) → $8.21 (FY2022) → $12.90 (FY2023) → $13.90 (FY2024) → $14.61 (FY2025), a five-year CAGR of approximately 18.7%. The EPS growth rate running roughly 3× the revenue growth rate is the operating leverage story in one number. 5
Valuation — where the premium is justified and where it is stretched
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The 5-year historical context matters here. Trailing P/E has been compressing (44.1x in 2021 → 31.8x in 2025), while P/B has been expanding (3.1x in 2021 → 5.4x in 2025). Current trailing P/E of 33.0x sits 8.2% below the 5-year quarterly average of 36.0x — the cheapest the stock has been on this metric since before the Praxair merger. P/B at 5.97x, by contrast, sits 38.5% above the 5-year quarterly average of 4.3x. 1011
The P/B premium is mechanically driven by buybacks — five years of returning $22.8B in repurchases have shrunk the equity base from $44.0B (FY2021) to $38.2B (FY2025) at the same time the stock price has climbed. It reflects capital efficiency, not an asset-light valuation bubble. 5
| Company | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA | Op. margin | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN (Linde plc) | 33.0x | 27.2x | 5.97x | 18.6x | 28.2% | 2.21% |
| APD (Air Products and Chemicals — direct industrial gas peer) | 29.4x | N/A† | N/A | 20.5x | 18.6% | −2.0%† |
| SHW (Sherwin-Williams) | 29.2x | 22.5x | 16.81x | N/A | 16.1% | N/A |
| ECL (Ecolab) | 34.6x | 29.8x | N/A | N/A | 18.5% | N/A |
| PPG (PPG Industries) | 16.2x | 14.4x | N/A | 11.5x | 13.5% | N/A |
| DD (DuPont) | N/M‡ | 20.0x | N/A | N/A | 13.2% | N/A |
| LYB (LyondellBasell) | N/M‡ | 5.8x | N/A | N/A | 3.3% | N/A |
| Peer median | 29.3x | 20.1x | 3.54x | 17.2x | 16.0% | 4.06% |
| LIN vs. median | +12.8% | +35.4% | +68.9% | +7.9% | +12.2pp | −1.85pp |
†APD is in a heavy CapEx cycle with negative FCF yield; forward P/E is not meaningful on current estimates. ‡DD and LYB have negative TTM earnings (N/M = not meaningful).
Three conclusions from this table:
EV/EBITDA premium is modest. At 18.6x vs. the peer median of 17.2x, LIN trades at only 7.9% above peers on the operating cash flow multiple — a justifiable premium given its 28.2% operating margin is 12.2 percentage points above the peer median. 112
The FCF yield gap is the most important tension. LIN's 2.21% FCF yield against the peer median of 4.06% means investors are paying a significant premium for future earnings visibility — specifically the $10B project backlog and the expectation that CapEx-heavy growth projects will ultimately regenerate FCF above current levels. If that materializes, the FCF yield compresses the premium; if CapEx continues rising without proportional OCF growth, the gap is harder to justify. 1
Forward P/E premium (35%) is the largest valuation gap. At 27.2x forward P/E vs. 20.1x peer median, the market is pricing in above-peer earnings growth. LIN's projected EPS growth of approximately 9.2% per year supports this directionally, but the price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) of 3.13 (vs. peer median 1.94) signals that the implied growth rate is already more than priced in at current levels. 12
Balance sheet health
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $20,636M | $23,680M | $28,785M |
| Net debt | $15,972M | $18,830M | $23,729M |
| D/E ratio | 0.52x | 0.62x | 0.75x |
| Interest coverage (op. income / interest expense) | 16.7x | 15.6x | 15.5x |
| Current ratio | 0.80x | 0.89x | 0.88x |
| Interest paid (cash) | $451M | $443M | $548M |
Sources: 5
Two observations pull in opposite directions. Debt has grown substantially: total debt rose 39.5% over three years ($20.6B → $28.8B), driven by long-term borrowings that funded growth CapEx and shareholder returns. Net debt has risen from $16.0B to $23.7B over the same window. The D/E ratio of 0.75x, while manageable, is trending upward. 5
Offsetting this: interest coverage at 15.5x (operating income of $8,923M against $575M in interest expense) is among the strongest in the industrial sector. The take-or-pay contract structure means operating income is highly predictable, which makes a 15.5x coverage ratio substantially more durable than the same ratio for a cyclical business. Cash interest paid in FY2025 was $548M — up 24% year-over-year but still covered roughly 9.3× by FCF. 5
The current ratio of 0.88x is below 1.0 in all three years, which is standard for capital-intensive industrial companies with predictable cash generation and no inventory risk in the traditional sense. Short-term borrowings include $4.5B in commercial paper at FY2025 year-end, plus $1.8B in long-term debt maturing within one year — both routinely refinanced by companies with LIN's credit standing. 5
Credit ratings could not be confirmed from accessible public sources during this research cycle. Based on publicly available historical data and the company's investment-grade debt issuances, market convention assigns LIN ratings in the single-A range (S&P: A/A-1, Moody's: A2/P-1) — but investors should verify current ratings directly with rating agencies before relying on this characterization.
Competitive moat — oligopoly, contracts, and margin leadership
The global industrial gas market is structured as an oligopoly. Linde, Air Liquide (Paris: AI — French industrial gas company), and Air Products (NYSE: APD) collectively control approximately 65–70% of the global merchant and on-site industrial gas market according to industry research estimates, though precise share data is behind paywalls and could not be verified from primary public sources in this research cycle.
What is directly measurable is the operating margin gap. LIN's TTM operating margin of 28.2% is 9.6 percentage points above its nearest direct industrial gas competitor, APD (18.6%). 112 That 960 basis point gap is not explained by revenue mix alone — it reflects the full compounding of the Praxair merger synergies, a productivity program that has run continuously since 2018, and pricing discipline enabled by long-term contract structures. APD is currently in an aggressive capex cycle for hydrogen megaprojects that has pushed its own FCF negative, while LIN has managed to keep its FCF positive through the same investment upcycle.
Three structural moat sources:
Long-term take-or-pay contracts. On-site ASU installations are financed by Linde and operated for the customer under 15–20 year contracts with mandatory minimum payments. The customer's industrial process is physically integrated with the gas supply system, making substitution prohibitively expensive. Once an on-site customer relationship exists, it compounds — adjacent product needs (specialty gases, engineering services) are naturally sourced from the incumbent.
Scale advantages in the merchant market. For smaller customers served by liquid delivery (as opposed to on-site pipelines), Linde's distribution network density means lower per-unit logistics costs than a regional competitor. The cost to build a comparable network of production plants, storage, and delivery logistics is a capital barrier that prevents new entry.
Margin leadership as a self-reinforcing cycle. Linde's 28.2% operating margin generates cash flow that can be reinvested in new long-term contracts at returns above its cost of capital (ROIC of 12.2% against an estimated WACC of 7–8% for a company of LIN's size and credit quality, though WACC was not directly sourced here). Competitors with lower margins and heavier investment programs — APD being the obvious example — have less flexibility to price aggressively on new contracts. 18
Beta of 0.74 (5-year) reflects the contract-protected revenue base: LIN's earnings move substantially less than the market through economic cycles, which justifies a structural premium multiple relative to cyclical peers. 1
Risk factors
1. Insider selling: 1,156:1 sell-to-buy ratio
In the past 24 months, seven LIN insiders sold a combined $51.0M of stock. The largest seller was former CEO Stephen F. Angel at $23.8M. The only buyer was director Paula Rosput Reynolds, who purchased 100 shares for $44,134. 19 A 1,156:1 sell-to-buy ratio is a notable data point — though for context, insider ownership is only 0.30–0.53% of shares outstanding, meaning these sales are primarily former executives monetizing deferred compensation rather than signals about near-term business outlook. Current CEO Sanjiv Lamba did not appear on the MarketBeat sell list. Institutional ownership stands at 85.6%, with BlackRock (7.96%), Vanguard (6.52%), and State Street (4.24%) as the three largest holders. 2
2. Rising debt load
Total debt grew from $20.6B (FY2023) to $28.8B (FY2025), a 39.5% increase in three years, funded by new long-term bond issuances to finance both growth CapEx and shareholder returns. While 15.5x interest coverage provides a substantial buffer, the structural question is how high debt can grow before the balance sheet becomes a constraint on further buybacks or dividend growth. Debt maturities within the next 12 months total approximately $6.3B ($4.5B commercial paper + $1.8B long-term maturities) — routinely refinanceable for a single-A rated issuer, but higher carry costs at today's rates vs. the pre-2022 debt vintages. 5
3. CapEx growth suppressing FCF yield
CapEx rose 70.5% in five years ($3.1B → $5.3B), compressing FCF from $6.6B (FY2021) to a trough of $4.9B (FY2024). FY2025 saw the first recovery to $5.1B. The risk is that the $10B project backlog requires continued elevated CapEx through FY2027–2028, keeping FCF yield below 2.5% at current prices. If the hydrogen and electronics projects take longer to generate returns than the market assumes, the valuation premium erodes. 5
4. Currency and geopolitical exposure
LIN operates in 80+ countries and reports in U.S. dollars. The accumulated foreign currency translation adjustment (AOCI) at FY2025 year-end was −$6,353M — a $614M improvement from FY2024's −$6,967M, indicating some dollar tailwind, but the structural exposure to euro, renminbi, and other currencies remains material. A sustained U.S. dollar strengthening cycle would reduce reported revenues and earnings from international operations. 5
5. Hydrogen investment risk and ESG transition timing
LIN is positioning itself as a key player in blue and green hydrogen production, supported by IRA Section 45V clean hydrogen tax credits. Hydrogen is currently an unproven large-scale commercial market — the economics of green hydrogen (electrolysis-based, powered by renewables) depend on electricity costs, electrolyzer efficiency improvements, and end-market demand developing faster than current timelines suggest. If hydrogen adoption plateaus or regulatory support weakens, the CapEx deployed for hydrogen infrastructure may generate returns below Linde's cost of capital.
6. Short interest — low, but rising
Short interest as of May 15, 2026 stood at 7.07M shares (1.54% of float), with 3.1 days to cover. The headline level is modest — well below the 10% threshold typically associated with meaningful short pressure — but the month-over-month increase of +15.3% (from 6.13M shares) bears watching if it persists. 220
Near-term catalysts and market context
Dividend. Current quarterly dividend is $1.60/share ($6.40 annualized), yielding 1.29% at the current price. 21 The February 2026 increase of $0.10/quarter (+6.7%) extended Linde's consecutive dividend growth streak to 5 years, at a 5-year CAGR of 9.3%. The payout ratio of 42.5% of trailing earnings is comfortably below 75%, supporting continued growth. Next ex-dividend date: June 4, 2026. 21
Analyst consensus. 12 analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate LIN a Buy (1 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 1 Hold — zero Sell). Average 12-month price target: $540.00, implying 8.5% upside from the current $497.69 — a modest return signal given the stock's beta of 0.74. 22 William O'Neil (the research firm) initiated coverage in April 2026 with a Buy rating, citing the $10 billion project backlog as a source of multi-year earnings visibility and exposure to clean energy and electronics growth themes. 23 Analyst targets carry systematic optimism bias — use directionally, not as price floors.
52-week range. $387.78 (low) – $521.28 (high). The current $497.69 sits 28.3% above the low and 4.5% below the high, near the top of a well-defined range. YTD return through May 29: +16.7%. 24
Next earnings date. Q2 2026 results are expected in late July or early August 2026. The data points to monitor: operating margin vs. the Q1 record of 27.8%, revenue growth vs. the Q1 rate of +8.2%, and any update to the full-year guidance range. 25
Macro tailwinds. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 in May 2026 — the highest reading in four years — as businesses built inventory buffers ahead of potential tariff impacts. Industrial gas demand tracks manufacturing activity closely, making the PMI signal directly relevant to LIN's merchant volume. 26 Natural gas prices at a 17-month low due to U.S. domestic supply glut represent a direct input cost tailwind — natural gas is the primary feedstock for air separation and hydrogen production. 27
Thesis in brief — bull vs. bear
LIN passes all three screening criteria: FY2023–FY2025 ROE of 15.61% / 17.23% / 18.04% (SEC EDGAR verified, parent equity basis); five consecutive years of positive FCF ($4.9B–$6.6B annually); and a trailing P/E that sits 8% below its own 5-year average. 510
The opportunity-risk structure as of May 30, 2026:
Bull case: Best-in-class operating margins (28.2%, nearly 10pp above the nearest sector peer) driven by a structurally defensible contract model. A $10B project backlog provides multi-year earnings visibility. Q1 2026 revenue growth of +8.2% represents the fastest quarterly pace in years, driven by a manufacturing cycle recovery and natural gas cost tailwinds. At 33.0x trailing P/E — below the 5-year average of 36.0x — the market is not pricing in a re-rating premium, only a continuation of the current earnings trajectory. Dividend growing at 9.3% CAGR with a 42.5% payout ratio and a buyback program that has taken 9.2% of shares out of circulation in five years.
Bear case: FCF yield of 2.21% is the lowest among sector peers by a wide margin, funded by CapEx that has grown 70.5% in five years and shows no signs of decelerating. P/B at 5.97x, 38.5% above its own 5-year average and 68.9% above the peer median, is the most stretched absolute valuation metric. A PEG of 3.13 implies the market is already pricing in growth that takes several years to materialize — the margin for execution error is thin. Insider selling of $51M vs. $44K in buys over 24 months is notable even accounting for the low insider ownership base. Debt rising to $28.8B (D/E 0.75x) reflects a capital structure that will need to be carefully managed if interest rates remain elevated.
The specific trigger to verify: whether the Q2 2026 results show FCF recovering toward the $5.5B–$6B range while operating margin holds above 27%. If CapEx stabilizes and OCF continues its Q1 acceleration, the FCF yield gap begins to narrow — and the valuation premium becomes more defensible. If CapEx accelerates further without a proportional OCF step-up, the bear case gets quantitative support.
All financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (CIK 0001707925), StockAnalysis, Finviz, Macrotrends, MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance, and Reuters/Bing News as noted. Price data represents the May 29, 2026 close. This article is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Verify all data independently before making any investment decision.
Cover image: AI-generated illustrative image
References
- 1StockAnalysis — Linde plc (LIN) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 2Finviz — LIN Quote
finviz.com
- 3Wikipedia — Linde plc
en.wikipedia.org
- 4Macrotrends — Linde Operating Income 2011–2026
macrotrends.net
- 5SEC EDGAR XBRL — Linde plc (CIK 0001707925)
data.sec.gov
- 6Macrotrends — Linde Revenue 2010–2026
macrotrends.net
- 7Macrotrends — Linde Net Income 2010–2026
macrotrends.net
- 8Macrotrends — Linde Gross Profit margin
macrotrends.net
- 9
- 10Macrotrends — Linde PE Ratio History
macrotrends.net
- 11Macrotrends — Linde Price-to-Book History
macrotrends.net
- 12StockAnalysis — Air Products (APD) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 13StockAnalysis — Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 14StockAnalysis — Ecolab (ECL) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 15StockAnalysis — PPG Industries (PPG) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 16StockAnalysis — DuPont (DD) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 17StockAnalysis — LyondellBasell (LYB) Statistics
stockanalysis.com
- 18Macrotrends — Linde ROIC
macrotrends.net
- 19MarketBeat — Linde (LIN) Insider Trading Activity
marketbeat.com
- 20MarketBeat — Linde (LIN) Short Interest
marketbeat.com
- 21MarketBeat — LIN Dividend History & FAQ
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- 22MarketBeat — LIN Stock Forecast & Price Target 2026
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- 23
- 24Yahoo Finance — LIN 5-day price data
query1.finance.yahoo.com
- 25
- 26
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