June 23 settlements: Gold breaks $4,200, copper crashes 3.8% as DXY hits 13-month high
Gold GCQ6 (Aug) broke decisively through the $4,200 support that held on June 22, settling at $4,149.40 (−1.42%), as DXY hit a new 13-month high of 101.37 and CME FedWatch December hike probability surged to 88% following Warsh's hawkish debut. Copper HGN6 crashed 3.80% to $6.1275/lb — the worst single-session move in the complex. WTI CLQ6 fell 1.17% to $73.21 as Iranian VLCC transits resumed through Hormuz's dual-corridor regime while OFAC GL X continues to funnel crude toward Chinese buyers. CBOT grains split: soybeans held fractionally positive (+0.13%) on meal strength while corn slipped 0.43% for a third straight down close. Secretary Rubio arrived in Abu Dhabi to begin his GCC tour, as Iran and Oman launched formal Hormuz governance talks in Muscat.
Data as of 15:30–16:00 ET, June 23, 2026. COMEX gold settled 13:30 ET; CBOT grains settled ~13:15 CT; NYMEX crude and COMEX copper settled ~14:30 ET and ~13:00 ET respectively. Post-settlement electronic prices continued to drift lower after these marks.
The session's headline was straightforward: DXY cleared 101.37, a new 13-month high, 1 and every dollar-denominated commodity that couldn't find an independent bid got sold. Gold GCQ6 (Aug) broke the $4,200 support level that had held on June 22 and settled at $4,149.40 — a $59.90 drop. 2 Copper HGN6 (Jul) crashed 3.80% to $6.1275/lb. 3 WTI CLQ6 (Aug) shed another 1.17% to $73.21/bbl as Iranian crude flows under OFAC General License X continued to undercut the risk premium. 4 Grains split: soybeans edged up 0.13% on meal strength while corn slipped 0.43% for a third consecutive lower session.
Settlement table — June 23, 2026
| Market | Contract | Settlement | vs. Jun 22 | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold | GCQ6 (Aug) | $4,149.40 | −$59.90 | −1.42% |
| NYMEX WTI | CLQ6 (Aug) | $73.21 | −$0.87 | −1.17% |
| ICE Brent | BRN00 (continuous) | $76.80 | −$1.10 | −1.41% |
| CBOT Corn | ZCN6 (Jul) | 409.75¢ | −1.75¢ | −0.43% |
| CBOT Soybeans | ZSN6 (Jul) | 1,117.00¢ | +1.50¢ | +0.13% |
| COMEX Copper | HGN6 (Jul) | $6.1275 | −$0.2420 | −3.80% |
| Macro | Jun 22 | Jun 23 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.08 | 101.37 | +0.29 pts (13-mo. high) |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.516% | 4.495% | −2.1 bp |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.232% | 4.198% | −3.4 bp |
| CME Dec hike prob. | ~50% | ~88% | +38 pp |
Gold: $4,200 gives way; post-settlement electronic slide to $4,129
Gold GCQ6 opened slightly above the June 22 close, tested $4,200 once in early trading, and then dropped progressively through the New York session. 7 The COMEX official settlement at 13:30 ET was $4,149.40, down $59.90 (−1.42%) from June 22's $4,209.30. 2 Spot gold (XAU/USD) fell to $4,124.22, down $66.97 (−1.60%) on the day. 7 Post-settlement electronic trading in GCQ6 slid further to $4,129.00, a drop of $80.30 (−1.91%) from the June 22 close, with the intraday session low at $4,108.20. 8
The attribution on the selloff is not contested. Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades, said: "The strength of the dollar, reinforced by last week's hawkish tilt from the Fed, is creating a headwind for gold prices." 8 Bob Haberkorn of StoneX added that "right now gold and silver don't really look to the Middle East. Investors are more interested in what the Federal Reserve announced last week." 9 The DXY at 101.37 represents a decisive break above the 101.20 breakout level Razan Hilal, CMT, of Forex.com/StoneX had flagged as the key test. 10
The CME FedWatch December 2026 hike probability closed at approximately 88%, up from ~50% on June 22 and ~61% before Warsh's inaugural FOMC meeting on June 16–17. 5 September hit 72.8%. 6 The spike reflects the cumulative pricing of Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish inaugural meeting — a hold at 3.50–3.75% with 9 of 19 members projecting at least one 2026 hike, and a statement stripped of forward guidance. 7 Bank of America now projects three hikes in H2 2026 (September, October, December). 6 Goldman Sachs is the lone major bank holding a contrarian full-year hold projection. 5
Suki Cooper of Standard Chartered noted that sentiment has "swung to selling on price rallies" — the market had been watching the $4,000 level as psychological support but is now testing intermediate support at $4,090 (50% Fibonacci extension from the May 29 high of $4,595 to the June 11 low of $4,020). 8 Below $4,090 the 61.8% extension sits at $4,020, the year's low. 10 Deutsche Bank's Michael Hsueh holds a revised base case of $4,800/oz by Q4, consistent with an indefinite Fed hold, but flags $3,800/oz as the risk case if 3–4 hikes materialize. 8 Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target on June 19 from $5,400 to $4,900, removing all projected 2026 Fed cuts from its model. 11 JPMorgan holds its year-end target at $6,000, Wells Fargo at $6,100–$6,300. 11 All three sit well above Tuesday's spot.
The 10-year Treasury yield actually fell 2.1 basis points to 4.495% on the day — a modest flight-to-safety bid into Treasuries rather than gold, confirming that the bond market is treating the Warsh framework as a near-term inflation constraint rather than a systemic risk. 12 The 2-year yield fell 3.4 basis points to 4.198%. 12 The gold-silver ratio expanded to 66.1, a two-week high, as silver SI00 crashed 6.03% to $61.630 — front-month silver's lowest close since December 12, 2025. 713
The USAGOLD report framed the key question directly: the World Gold Council identifies four catalysts that could expose the DXY surge as a false breakout — softer PCE or trimmed-mean inflation prints, Bank of Japan intervention to limit yen weakness, reduced dollar liquidity demand if Iranian crude flows resume at scale, and improving non-US economic growth. 7 Three of the four are already in motion. The next definitive test is core PCE for May, due Thursday June 25. 12
Oil: WTI −1.17% as Hormuz flows resume — but the dual transit regime persists
WTI CLQ6 (Aug) settled at $73.21/bbl, down $0.87 (−1.17%) from June 22's $74.08. 4 Brent (BRN00 continuous) settled at $76.80, down approximately $1.10 (−1.41%) from the June 22 baseline of $77.90. 14 Barron's noted Brent settled at its lowest level since the Iran war began. 1 Both benchmarks hit near-four-month lows during the session. 15 Wood Mackenzie now forecasts a Brent average of $82 for 2026, cut from a prior estimate above $150 had the Hormuz closure proved prolonged. Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie put the counterfactual plainly: "A prolonged closure would have pushed Brent well above $150 a barrel. The MoU changed that trajectory." 16
Three VLCC supertankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — Dubai Energy (CPC-chartered, ~2M bbl), Legio X Equestris (TotalEnergies-chartered, ~2M bbl), and Universal Glory (GS Caltex-chartered, ~2M bbl of Saudi crude) — per LSEG/Kpler data. 17 Seven Qatar-linked LNG tankers moved into the Gulf June 11–22, the largest number of empty LNG ships entering since the war began, per Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar. 17 The JMIC (Joint Maritime Information Centre) reported daily vessel transits of 22 on June 18, 19 on June 19, and 28 on June 20 — the highest since the conflict outbreak — against a pre-war baseline of approximately 138 vessels per day. 18
The traffic recovery runs well behind the diplomatic language. A dual transit regime now operates: the southern corridor through Omani waters, backed by the US Navy and CENTCOM, which CENTCOM describes as providing passage "free of arbitrary requirement claims or impediments"; and the northern corridor through Iranian PGSA-administered waters, where Iran's Fars News confirmed the IRGC Navy is not issuing transit permits, citing Israeli operations in Lebanon. 16 The central Traffic Separation Scheme remains mined. 19 INTERTANKO has stated that mine clearance has not officially begun. 19
BofA global commodities head Francisco Blanch, in an EL PAÍS interview, projected traffic recovering 40% by end of July, 75% by end of September, and fully by end of 2026. 20 His 2026 Brent average forecast is $82/bbl. 20 SEB Research's Ole Hvalbye said easing sanctions won't weigh heavily short-term because the MoU is "still new and fragile." 15 The structural floor under prices: US commercial crude inventories are at a 40-year low (418.2M bbl as of the June 12 EIA report, the 8th consecutive draw), and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since June 1983. 15
Two separate oil stories ran in parallel. OFAC General License X, issued June 22, authorizes Iranian crude sales through August 21 with no escrow, no volume cap, and no approved-buyer list — the first such license since 2019. 21 UANI tracked 31 tankers loaded with Iranian oil departing the Gulf of Oman since the June 14 MoU announcement, carrying approximately 41 million barrels and generating an estimated $3.5B in revenue. 18 Five additional tankers departed June 23, most likely bound for Chinese buyers. 18
Russia separately is considering a diesel export ban: Deputy PM Alexander Novak chaired a meeting that raised fuel imports as an option, as Russian gasoline output last week was approximately 25% below the June 2025 daily average and seaborne oil product exports are down ~15% in the first half of June versus the first half of May. 22 Novak said Russia is "using reserves that were not previously tapped, and also encouraging increased supplies of additional volumes to the domestic market." 22
Geopolitics: Rubio in Abu Dhabi, Iran-Oman Hormuz talks begin in Muscat
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived at Al Bateen Executive Airport in Abu Dhabi late Tuesday, the first stop on a June 23–25 Gulf tour covering the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. 23 The mission: selling GCC partners on the US-Iran MoU, whose terms — no ballistic missile limits, a $300 billion reconstruction fund, and a role for Iran in Strait governance — have privately "disappointed and surprised" regional officials, per Reuters. 23 On the reconstruction fund, Rubio said: "That's far down the road." On Hormuz: "It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway." 24
Separately, Iran and Oman held formal talks in Muscat on Tuesday under Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU (signed June 17), establishing a joint working group to reach agreement on "the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the services that will be provided in this regard and the costs associated with them in accordance with international standards." 24 The Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. 24 Iran's lead negotiator has previously stated: "Everyone should know that the administration of the strait will never return to the way it was before the war." 25 The MoU specifies no tolls for the first 60 days; governance beyond that window remains unresolved. 24
In Lebanon, Israeli gunfire killed two people in Nabatieh al-Fawqa on Tuesday — the first fatalities since Sunday's lull — which Iran's UN ambassador Ali Bahreini called a challenge to the broader peace framework: "Lebanon is an unquestionable part of the agreement, and whatever happens in Lebanon affects the whole process." 26 The fifth round of Israel-Lebanon talks began Tuesday at the US State Department (June 23–25). 26
The Qatar Barzan gas facility casualty toll from June 21's explosion was updated to 13 dead and 66 injured. 27 QatarEnergy confirmed the blast hit a domestic gas supply facility, not the LNG export trains: "QatarEnergy's LNG facilities, Ras Laffan Port, other logistics operations, and QatarEnergy's export capabilities remain unaffected." 27 Rystad Energy's Christoph Halser maintained the base case that Qatar is on track to restore all available LNG production by October, though noted "further impact on operations or delay to the restart timeline cannot be ruled out." 27
Grains: "Turnaround Tuesday" delivers mixed results; China still absent on flash sales
CBOT corn ZCN6 (Jul) settled at 409.75¢/bu, down 1.75¢ (−0.43%) from June 22's 411.50¢ — a third consecutive lower close. 2829 The December ZCZ6 contract settled at 437.25¢, down 1.75¢ (−0.40%), on open interest of 718,284. 29 The intraday range was 407.00¢–414.50¢, with a high print of 414.50¢ early before fund selling reasserted control. 29
CBOT soybeans ZSN6 (Jul) settled at 1,117.00¢/bu, up 1.50¢ (+0.13%) from June 22's 1,115.50¢. 30 Soybean meal ZMN6 gained $3.80/ton (+1.27%), pulling beans higher. Soybean oil ZLN6 fell 0.54¢/lb (−0.76%), dragged by falling crude oil. 31 Volume was 99.36K contracts against a 65-day average of 111.66K; open interest: 440,443. 31
The "Turnaround Tuesday" framing from overnight trade evaporated quickly for corn. Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing described the headwinds: "It's been basically if there's a bearish thing we can throw at this market, we found it. And the weather, we've rained a lot. The dollar's gone up and crude oil's gone down." 32 Dan Basse of Ag Resource Company framed the seasonal context: "This is a time of the year that we're most bearish. So if we look at the period following the middle of June, if weather's not a threat, grain prices or corn prices usually come down." 33 July corn is approaching the June 15 low of 406.25¢, with resistance at the 10-day moving average of approximately 415¢. 34
USDA crop ratings remain steady. As of the June 21 survey — the most recent; no new report was released June 23, with the next due Monday June 29 — national corn stands at 68% good-to-excellent (unchanged week-over-week, down 2 percentage points year-over-year) and soybeans at 66% G/E (unchanged). 34 Dr. Michael Cordonnier (Pro Farmer consultant) held his US corn yield estimate at 182.0 bu/ac and soybean yield at 52.5 bu/ac, both with neutral bias. 34
China was absent again on USDA daily flash sales. DTN analysts noted: "Once again, China failed to show up on the morning flash sales announcement." 35 The only USDA daily sale was 100,000 MT of corn to Mexico (30K MT old-crop 2025/26 + 70K MT new-crop 2026/27). 35 Basse estimated China bought approximately 500,000 MT of US soybeans last week but has not yet confirmed in this week's flash sale window: "We believe China bought a half million tons of U.S. soybeans last week. They had a holiday over the weekend. We think by the end of the week, early next week, they'll be back buying U.S. soybeans." 33 China is obligated to purchase approximately 25 MMT of US soybeans by December 31, 2026 under the current trade agreement; Basse calculates that achieving this requires 1.0–1.5 MMT of weekly buying. 33
Weather forward: a Corn Belt rain system is moving through Tuesday through Thursday (June 23–25), with another system expected Friday–Saturday (June 26–27). 36 DTN meteorologist John Baranick flagged a pattern shift: "A warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much warmer temperatures next week." 36 The warmer pattern builds growing degree days for corn but bears watching through the July-August critical soybean reproductive period. European grain losses are emerging as a counter-weight to the bearish US weather story: Basse estimates EU wheat losses at 3–5 MMT and EU corn losses at 5–7 MMT from current heat and drought, which may ultimately increase US export demand after harvest. 33 Brazil's safrinha corn harvest is 7% complete, three percentage points ahead of the five-year average, per Rabobank. 34
The managed-money positioning backdrop: the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report (data through June 16, released June 22) shows managed money net short in corn, with fund selling continuing Tuesday. 32 Soybeans carry an estimated ~45,000 contracts of managed-money longs still available to liquidate per Minor. 32 The next major USDA catalyst is the June 30 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Basse's preliminary estimates: corn at 95.0–95.5 million acres (near March intentions), soybeans at ~86 million acres (+1M from last year). 33
Copper: −3.80%, worst session of the complex
HGN6 (Jul) settled at $6.1275/lb, down $0.2420 (−3.80%) from June 22's $6.3695. 3 The intraday range was $6.1100–$6.3645 on volume of 52.8K contracts — 119% of the 65-day average — confirming heavy two-way activity and the scope of the selling. 3 The triple headwind — strengthening dollar, hawkish Fed repricing, and soft China demand signals — drove the day's 3.80% drop. 7
China's May 2026 copper scrap imports fell 9.78% month-over-month to 191,000 tonnes, though they remained 3.14% above year-ago levels — a signal of weak downstream demand even as the structural supply story stays intact. 37 LME copper inventories have reportedly surged more than 50% since mid-August 2025 per secondary sources, adding to oversupply concerns near-term. 37
On the Cobre Panama front, no new development emerged Tuesday. Panama's independent audit found the First Quantum mine 88% compliant with environmental standards (released June 19), and an inter-agency task force is evaluating the restart. 38 The mine produced approximately 350,000 tonnes of copper in 2022 before its closure; First Quantum estimates $3.5B in lost economic contribution since the shutdown. 38 A formal presidential restart authorization — if it comes — remains the largest single supply-side copper catalyst of the year.
Bank copper year-end forecasts bracket the current spot: JPMorgan at a ~$12,075/tonne (~$5.48/lb) full-year 2026 average, Goldman Sachs at ~$13,735/tonne (~$6.23/lb, marginally above Tuesday's settlement), and Citi at ~$15,000/tonne (~$6.80/lb). 37 The $6.12/lb level is the near-term technical floor per BeInCrypto; a breakdown opens toward $6.04. 37
What to watch next
- Gold: Core PCE for May prints Thursday June 25. That's the data event that could either validate the 88% December hike probability or begin to deflate it. Post-settlement electronic gold already dipped below $4,130 Tuesday; a second consecutive close below $4,149.40 settlement confirms the breakdown. 12
- Oil: First EIA WPSR capturing the post-MoU period releases June 24. Any inventory build from Iranian crude arrivals would quantify the supply rebalancing. The dual transit regime in Hormuz — and whether Iran's PGSA-administered northern corridor reopens or the JMIC mine-threat level downgrades from "Moderate" — is the daily signal. 16
- Grains: No USDA data until the June 26 weekly export sales. June 30 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks are the next hard pivots. Watch whether China flash sales materialize by end of week, given Basse's 500K MT estimate for last week's purchases. 33
- Copper: Panama restart authorization remains outstanding. China PMI releases in late June will be the first hard read on whether the week's scrap-import weakness is a one-month blip or a deteriorating demand signal. 38
- Geopolitics: Rubio's Gulf tour continues Wednesday in Kuwait. The Iran-Oman Hormuz governance talks under Article 5 of the MoU are the institutional mechanism that determines whether the toll dispute is resolved diplomatically or festers into a transit uncertainty premium for energy markets. 24
Cover image: Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to media at Al Bateen Executive Airport, Abu Dhabi, late June 23, 2026, Day 1 of his three-nation Gulf tour. 23
References
- 1Barron's: Stock market live coverage June 23
barrons.com
- 2MarketWatch: GC00 Gold Continuous Contract
marketwatch.com
- 3MarketWatch: HG00 Copper Continuous Contract
marketwatch.com
- 4Boston Herald/AP: Tech stocks retreat on Wall Street
bostonherald.com
- 5
- 6BeInCrypto: 3 Fed rate hikes now on BofA 2026 radar
beincrypto.com
- 7
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- 9Reuters/OEDigital: Gold drops as rate-hike betting boosts dollar
energynews.oedigital.com
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- 14MarketWatch: BRN00 Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract
marketwatch.com
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- 18UANI: Iran shipping update – June 23, 2026
unitedagainstnucleariran.com
- 19
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- 25Splash247: Hormuz hotline opens between US and Iran
splash247.com
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- 28Barchart: Corn Jul '26 futures (ZCN26)
barchart.com
- 29MarketWatch: C00 Corn Continuous Contract
marketwatch.com
- 30Barchart: Soybean Jul '26 futures (ZSN26)
barchart.com
- 31MarketWatch: S00 Soybeans Continuous Contract
marketwatch.com
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- 33AgWeb: Is China buying beans?
agweb.com
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