2026-08-10|11:15金银回落,核心CPI预期环比升0.2%

2026-08-10|11:15金银回落,核心CPI预期环比升0.2%

截至2026年8月10日11:15,窗口内新增3条Reuters可核验事实,覆盖金银报价、美国7月CPI预期及霍尔木兹相关油价与美债收益率更新;GLD/SLV持仓和COMEX/SHFE库存明细未核验。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-10 11:15:00+08:00", "asset_universe": [ "AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260810-gold-silver-0200gmt", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货金报 4322.28 美元,白银报 63.45 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T02:22:56.528Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T02:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "market_snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-10T02:00:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4322.28, "change_percent": -0.5 }, "us_gold_futures": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4381.60, "change_percent": -0.4 }, "spot_silver": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 63.45, "change_percent": -0.2 }, "source_time_note": "Reuters 页面 meta:article:published_time 为 2026-08-10T02:22:56.528Z;正文称上述报价截至 0200 GMT。" }, "transmission_chain": "现货金银报价下跌→短线价格动能转弱→AU、AG 期货盘中方向偏空", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径现货报价转为上涨并收复本次报价跌幅,或新的实际利率与美元事实成为主导变量时,本事件的盘中方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-US-20260810-cpi-preview", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "Reuters 调查核心 CPI 预期环比升 0.2%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:09:16.916Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 90, "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 0 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "美国 BLS 2026 年 7 月 Consumer Price Index", "actual": null, "actual_status": "Reuters 发布时实际值尚未披露", "consensus": { "headline_cpi_month_over_month_percent": 0.1, "core_cpi_month_over_month_percent": 0.2, "core_cpi_year_over_year_percent": 2.5 }, "prior": { "core_cpi_year_over_year_percent": 2.6 }, "scheduled_release_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "source_time_note": "Reuters 黄金稿发表于 2026-08-10T02:22:56.528Z;Reuters 全球市场稿页面于 2026-08-10T03:09:16.916Z 更新并披露 headline 与 core CPI 预期。BLS 官方日程给出 8 月 12 日美国东部时间 08:30。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 预期→美联储利率路径与实际利率预期→无息贵金属的持有成本和 AU、AG 估值变量", "invalidation_conditions": "BLS 实际 CPI 发布后,实际值替代本次共识且核心或总体数据显著偏离预期时,本预发布事件不再代表当前宏观定价", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-drifts-lower-seven-week-peak-us-inflation-data-looms-2026-08-10/))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/))", "[https://www.[bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm)](https://bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260810-hormuz-oil-030916z", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "霍尔木兹重启不确定,布伦特报 84.40 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:09:16.916Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T03:09:16.916Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 88, "direction_score": { "AU": 0 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:25:46.604Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:09:16.916Z", "geopolitical_update": "Reuters 称伊朗表示与阿曼确定霍尔木兹海峡新航道的协议已进入最后阶段,但海峡重新开放仍取决于美国满足其他条件。", "brent_crude_futures": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 84.40, "change_percent": 1.0 }, "wti_crude_futures": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 78.80, "change_percent": 0.8 }, "us_10_year_treasury_yield_percent": 4.662, "gold_price_usd_per_ounce": 4320.0, "source_time_note": "正文页面更新时保留上述市场状态;source_page_updated_at_utc 落在本期 10:15 至 11:15(UTC+08:00)扫描窗口内。" }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹重启条件未消除→油价与通胀、利率变量维持分化→避险需求与实际利率的相对变化共同决定黄金方向", "invalidation_conditions": "航道恢复且布伦特、WTI 回落,或美元与实际收益率出现同向主导变化时,本事件的中性方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-10/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本窗口未取得可直接核验的白名单来源数字,未用搜索摘要或间接报价替代。" }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本窗口未取得可直接核验的官方明细数字,未用入口页、交割通知或搜索摘要替代。" } ] }

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