MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee holds No. 1 as Pittsburgh vaults four and Central race tightens
The penultimate regular-season composite keeps Milwaukee atop baseball while Pittsburgh surges four spots, Detroit climbs, Baltimore slides, and the AL Central tightens to a half-game before a showdown in Cleveland.
Milwaukee remains No. 1 across all three editorial lists as the regular season enters its final two weeks, while Pittsburgh makes the week's biggest jump by climbing four places to 15th. Detroit rises three spots as its positive run profile begins to translate into wins, Baltimore drops three places during a late-season slide, and the AL Central tightens to a half-game before a three-game showdown in Cleveland. 1
How the composite works
The composite averages three current editorial lists: ESPN's Week 24 rankings published Sept. 10, The Athletic's rankings published Sept. 8, and MLB.com's rankings for the week of Sept. 13. The Athletic reports panel averages with one decimal place, so those values enter the calculation exactly as published. When composite averages tie, teams are separated in sequence by current winning percentage, run differential, expected record, and last-10 form. 234
FanGraphs' published ordinal rankings article covers games through Sept. 6, so its Elo ratings provide recent-form context rather than entering the Sept. 8–14 average. FanGraphs' Sept. 14 playoff-odds model and WAR leaderboard provide the analytical checks. In the tables and notes below,
RD refers to run differential, X-W/L refers to MLB's expected record, and ROS W% refers to FanGraphs' projected winning percentage for the rest of the regular season. 567All 30 teams ranked
E / A / M indicates ESPN / The Athletic / MLB.com ranks. Movement compares this composite with the previous published composite through Sept. 7. Records, last-10 results, streaks, run differential, and expected records reflect the Monday morning MLB standings snapshot. 1| Rank | Team | E / A / M | Record / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L | Move | September read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 / 1.0 / 1 234 | 93-57 / 6-4 / L1 1 | +195 / 94-56 1 | — | Milwaukee clinched a postseason berth this weekend and maintains baseball's best record and run differential. Jacob Misiorowski owns a 1.95 ERA with 161.1 innings and 6.0 WAR. 67 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 / 2.5 / 2 234 | 90-59 / 8-2 / L2 1 | +170 / 92-57 1 | — | Los Angeles holds second with an 8-2 last-10 mark and a +170 run differential. Shohei Ohtani will not pitch again in 2026, shifting attention entirely to his designated-hitter production. 28 |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 4 / 3.3 / 3 234 | 88-62 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +116 / 87-63 1 | — | Atlanta leads the NL East by five games with a 99.1% division probability on FanGraphs. Chris Sale carries a 5.7 WAR season into this week's Wrigley Field series. 67 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 / 5.3 / 4 234 | 90-59 / 7-3 / W3 1 | +69 / 82-67 1 | — | Tampa Bay became the first AL team to clinch a postseason berth behind a three-game sweep. Junior Caminero has 4.8 WAR and Drew Rasmussen has 4.6 WAR to anchor the roster. 47 |
| 5 | New York Yankees | 5 / 5.3 / 5 234 | 86-63 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +125 / 88-61 1 | ▲1 | New York moves into fifth as Cam Schlittler tossed six shutout frames Sunday to drop his MLB-leading ERA to 1.949. Aaron Judge is back in right field after missing 100 days. 24 |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | 7 / 4.5 / 6 234 | 83-67 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +138 / 88-62 1 | ▼1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong leads major league position players with 9.8 WAR and 41 home runs. The Cubs hold a 98.7% playoff probability on FanGraphs despite bullpen volatility. 67 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 / 7.2 / 7 234 | 83-67 / 4-6 / W1 1 | +31 / 78-72 1 | — | Philadelphia sits tied with Chicago for the top NL Wild Card spot. Jesús Luzardo was scratched Saturday with left shoulder soreness, making Cristopher Sánchez the rotation's primary anchor. 18 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 8 / 7.5 / 8 234 | 82-68 / 7-3 / W2 1 | +88 / 85-65 1 | — | Boston sits six games clear in the AL Wild Card standings with a 100% playoff projection on FanGraphs. Ranger Suárez has allowed one run over his past 14 innings. 46 |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | 9 / 10.8 / 9 234 | 81-68 / 8-2 / W7 1 | +22 / 77-72 1 | ▲1 | A seven-game winning streak gives San Diego the longest active run in baseball. The Padres opened a 2.5-game cushion over Arizona for the final NL Wild Card berth. 16 |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 11 / 9.2 / 11 234 | 76-73 / 3-7 / L1 1 | +34 / 78-71 1 | ▼1 | Chicago slips one spot after going 3-7 over its last 10 games. The White Sox lead Cleveland by 0.5 games and need one win this week to secure the head-to-head tiebreaker. 49 |
| 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 10 / 11.3 / 10 234 | 79-71 / 6-4 / L2 1 | +2 / 75-75 1 | — | Arizona trails San Diego by 2.5 games for the final NL Wild Card berth. Corbin Burnes and Michael Soroka returned from the injured list to reinforce the rotation. 12 |
| 12 | Cleveland Guardians | 13 / 13.5 / 12 234 | 76-74 / 6-4 / W1 1 | -7 / 74-76 1 | — | Cleveland holds the final AL Wild Card spot and sits 0.5 games back of Chicago in the AL Central. Parker Messick carries a 4.5 WAR rookie campaign into Monday's series opener. 67 |
| 13 | Houston Astros | 12 / 13.7 / 13 234 | 75-75 / 4-6 / L3 1 | -53 / 70-80 1 | — | Houston leads the AL West by one game despite a three-game losing streak and a -53 run differential. Yordan Alvarez owns 5.8 WAR while managing late-season ankle soreness. 47 |
| 14 | Toronto Blue Jays | 14 / 15.0 / 14 234 | 75-75 / 6-4 / W2 1 | -31 / 72-78 1 | ▲1 | Toronto reached .500 and sits one game behind Cleveland for the last AL Wild Card spot. Dylan Cease has delivered 5.6 WAR to anchor a rotation missing Jameson Taillon and Shane Bieber. 17 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 15 / 17.0 / 15 234 | 75-75 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +26 / 78-72 1 | ▲4 | Pittsburgh produced the week's largest rise by jumping four spots. The Pirates are 7-3 over their last 10 games, own a +26 run differential, and hold a 78-72 expected record. 14 |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | 17 / 14.2 / 18 234 | 74-76 / 3-7 / W2 1 | +6 / 76-74 1 | ▼2 | Miami slips two spots after winning three of its past 10 games. Otto Lopez leads the club with 5.4 WAR, while Owen Caissie was placed on the injured list with a lumbar stress reaction. 78 |
| 17 | Texas Rangers | 16 / 18.8 / 16 234 | 74-76 / 5-5 / W2 1 | -44 / 70-80 1 | — | Texas sits one game behind Houston in the AL West and two games back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 22.3% division probability and a 30.6% playoff probability. 16 |
| 18 | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 / 17.3 / 17 234 | 74-76 / 4-6 / W1 1 | -7 / 74-76 1 | — | St. Louis remains 18th as JJ Wetherholt resumed hitting off a machine following right wrist tendinitis. FanGraphs projects the Cardinals for 79.8 wins with a 0% playoff probability. 68 |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles | 19 / 18.6 / 19 234 | 72-78 / 3-7 / L2 1 | -35 / 72-78 1 | ▼3 | Baltimore drops three places following a 3-7 stretch and a series loss to Colorado and Boston. Kyle Bradish landed on the 15-day injured list with lower abdominal discomfort. 18 |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 23 / 19.2 / 21 234 | 70-79 / 6-4 / W4 1 | +70 / 82-67 1 | ▲3 | Detroit climbed three spots behind a four-game winning streak. The Tigers remain baseball's most extreme underperformance case, pairing a 70-79 record with a +70 run differential and an 82-67 expected record. 17 |
| 21 | Seattle Mariners | 22 / 21.2 / 20 234 | 70-80 / 4-6 / L1 1 | -58 / 69-81 1 | — | Seattle remains 21st after dropping three of four to the Athletics. FanGraphs still models a league-high .605 rest-of-season winning percentage, but playoff odds sit at 4.1%. 46 |
| 22 | Minnesota Twins | 20 / 21.3 / 22 234 | 70-79 / 3-7 / L1 1 | -62 / 69-80 1 | ▼2 | Minnesota drops two spots after going 14-24 since the start of August. Byron Buxton will undergo season-ending hip surgery Sept. 18, and Royce Lewis is day-to-day with shoulder soreness. 48 |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | 24 / 19.8 / 24 234 | 70-81 / 3-7 / W3 1 | +3 / 76-75 1 | ▼1 | Washington ended a seven-game losing streak by sweeping the Angels. The Nationals have hit 198 home runs this year, fourth in baseball, but their pitching has dropped them to 70-81. 14 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | 21 / 23.7 / 25 234 | 70-79 / 4-6 / W1 1 | -145 / 60-89 1 | — | Cincinnati's -145 run differential remains the second-worst mark in the National League. Elly De La Cruz provides the bright spot with 5.7 WAR, while rookie Chase Burns has produced 4.4 pitching WAR. 17 |
| 25 | New York Mets | 25 / 24.3 / 23 234 | 69-80 / 7-3 / L1 1 | -34 / 71-78 1 | — | The Mets went 29-23 since the All-Star break behind contributions from Carson Benge and Nolan McLean. Despite a 7-3 last-10 stretch, the Mets are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. 14 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 26 / 26.2 / 26 234 | 66-84 / 4-6 / L2 1 | -94 / 66-84 1 | — | Bobby Witt Jr. ranks third among major leaguers with 6.4 WAR. The Royals are eliminated from contention but face the Astros, White Sox, and Guardians over the final two weeks. 47 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 27 / 26.7 / 27 234 | 62-88 / 4-6 / L3 1 | -77 / 67-83 1 | — | Rafael Devers was placed on the 60-day injured list Sunday with a core muscle injury, ending his season at 32 home runs. The Giants hold 27th across all three editorial lists. 48 |
| 28 | Athletics | 28 / 29.0 / 28 234 | 61-89 / 7-3 / W1 1 | -203 / 57-93 1 | ▲1 | The Athletics climbed one place after taking three of four games from Seattle. Starter Gage Jump left his Sept. 12 start with shoulder impingement and faces a season-ending IL stint. 18 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 30 / 28.8 / 29 234 | 56-93 / 3-7 / L3 1 | -76 / 66-83 1 | ▲1 | Los Angeles edges Colorado on winning percentage. Mike Trout hit his 21st home run Friday against Washington, and Reid Detmers has produced 4.5 pitching WAR across 168 innings. 47 |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | 29 / 28.8 / 30 234 | 55-94 / 2-8 / L7 1 | -169 / 60-89 1 | ▼2 | Colorado falls to last after dropping seven consecutive games. The Rockies are 12-27 since the trade deadline and must finish 8-5 to avoid a fourth consecutive 100-loss season. 14 |
The moves that changed the board
Pittsburgh surges behind its bullpen and run profile
Pittsburgh jumped four spots from 19th to 15th, representing the board's largest week-over-week climb. The Pirates went 7-3 over their past 10 games, reached the .500 mark at 75-75, and hold a +26 run differential alongside an expected record of 78-72. That underlying profile has long outpaced Pittsburgh's actual standing, and the editorial panels responded in unison by ranking the club 15th on ESPN and MLB.com. 124
The bullpen has provided the primary stability. Reliever Mason Montgomery has not allowed an earned run since late July, converting 10 saves while striking out at least one batter in nearly every appearance since mid-June. If the Pirates win eight of their remaining 12 games, they will secure their fourth-best full-season record since 1992. 24
Baltimore slides as roster turnover catches up
Baltimore dropped three spots from 16th to 19th. The Orioles are 72-78 with a 3-7 mark over their past 10 games and carry a -35 run differential. While the editorial consensus kept Baltimore inside the top 20, the team's postseason probability on FanGraphs fell to 1.4%. 16
Roster attrition has compounded the slide. After claiming Luis Robert Jr. off waivers from the White Sox, the center fielder managed three appearances before suffering left hamstring discomfort. Starter Kyle Bradish was placed on the 15-day injured list Sunday with lower abdominal discomfort, removing another reliable arm from a rotation already relying on Triple-A depth. 38
Detroit rises three spots as run differential validates
Detroit climbed from 23rd to 20th after winning four straight games and taking six of its past 10. The Tigers own baseball's most extreme gap between performance and record: a 70-79 ledger accompanied by a +70 run differential and an 82-67 expected record. 1
Rookie Kevin McGonigle has reached 5.0 WAR to lead AL rookies, while catcher Dillon Dingler adds 4.7 WAR behind the plate. Jack Flaherty threw a simulated game Saturday in preparation for a Triple-A rehab assignment Thursday, giving Detroit a potential rotation reinforcement for the final weekend of the schedule. 78
San Diego creates separation in the National League Wild Card race
San Diego climbed into ninth place behind a league-best seven-game winning streak. The Padres are 81-68, outscoring opponents by 22 runs, and hold a 2.5-game cushion over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third NL Wild Card spot. 1
FanGraphs raised San Diego's playoff probability to 77.6%, compared with Arizona's 26.4%. Nick Pivetta tossed five scoreless frames in his return from an elbow absence Monday, giving the Padres a starter alongside Dylan Cease and Michael King while Joe Musgrove remains limited to potential bullpen work. 26
Cy Young duels frame the top tier
Milwaukee and New York featured the two most dominant starting pitchers of the week. Jacob Misiorowski struck out nine over 6.1 innings Tuesday to lower his ERA to 1.95, keeping him tied with Cam Schlittler at 6.0 pitching WAR. Schlittler answered Sunday with six scoreless innings against the Mets, dropping his ERA to 1.949 to take the major league lead. Schlittler has allowed one run or zero runs in 21 starts this year, the most by a pitcher age 25 or younger since Blake Snell in 2018. 247
Analytics check
FanGraphs' Sept. 14 playoff projections divide the league into established qualifiers and contested races. Seven franchises possess playoff odds of 97% or higher: the Brewers (100%), Dodgers (100%), Braves (100%), Rays (100%), Yankees (100%), Red Sox (100%), Cubs (98.7%), and Phillies (97.2%). Los Angeles leads all teams with a 25.7% World Series projection, followed by Milwaukee at 13.6% and Tampa Bay at 10.1%. 6
The individual WAR leaderboard reinforces those team outcomes:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs): 9.8 total WAR, 41 home runs, 35 stolen bases. Crow-Armstrong leads all major league players in overall value while chasing the seventh 40-homer, 40-steal season in major league history. 57
- Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 6.8 total WAR (3.8 batting WAR, 2.9 pitching WAR in 85.2 innings). Ohtani remains second in overall WAR despite the club shutting down his pitching for the remainder of 2026. 27
- Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): 6.4 total WAR. Witt leads American League position players across 581 plate appearances. 7
- Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) and Cam Schlittler (Yankees): 6.0 pitching WAR each. They represent the only starting pitchers with an ERA below 2.00 across at least 160 innings. 247
The largest divergences between actual record and run differential reside in the Central divisions. Detroit is nine games below .500 at 70-79 despite a +70 run differential that translates to an 82-67 expected record. Cincinnati holds the identical 70-79 record despite a -145 run differential that points to a 60-89 expected record. In the AL West, Houston leads the division at 75-75 with a -53 run differential, maintaining a one-game edge over Texas (-44 run differential) and five games over Seattle (-58 run differential). 1
Injury watch
Roster moves over the past seven days have shifted starting rotations and middle-of-the-order depth for October contenders:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Activated Tuesday from the 60-day injured list after missing 100 days with a right rib stress fracture. Judge played right field and batted third, though he went 3-for-17 with nine strikeouts in his first five games back. 24
- Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): The Dodgers placed Ohtani on the injured list with left knee and right biceps discomfort, targeting a Sept. 23 return as designated hitter. The club confirmed he will not pitch again during the regular season or postseason. 28
- Rafael Devers (Giants): Transferred to the 60-day injured list Sunday with a core muscle injury. Devers finishes 2026 with 32 home runs, ending San Francisco's power threat in the lineup. 8
- Jesús Luzardo (Phillies): Scratched Saturday due to left shoulder soreness after tossing a 12-strikeout complete game Monday. Philadelphia expects him to resume throwing this week. 28
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Threw a bullpen session Sunday in his recovery from a left elbow flexor strain. Steele returns to Triple-A Iowa this week to continue a rehab assignment aimed at a late-September return. 8
- Carlos Correa (Astros): Re-evaluated in Houston this week following left ankle surgery. Houston expects Correa to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment before the end of the week. 8
- Garrett Crochet (Red Sox): Scheduled for a 30-pitch side session Tuesday as he builds stamina from a left shoulder strain suffered in April. 58
Schedule tests for the penultimate week
Five series starting Monday test current power-ranking positions:
- Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (Sept. 14–16): The AL Central title could be determined in this three-game series. The Guardians sit 0.5 games back of the White Sox and enter on a 6-4 run. Chicago holds a 6-4 lead in the season series and needs one win to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. 19
- Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (Sept. 14–16): A potential National League Division Series preview at Wrigley Field. Atlanta leads the NL East by five games, while Chicago holds a 1.5-game lead atop the Wild Card race. Chris Sale and Jameson Taillon headline the projected pitching matchups. 19
- Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (Sept. 18–20): An elimination-style AL Wild Card clash. Toronto is one game behind Cleveland for the final playoff spot, while Texas sits one game behind Toronto. Both teams have negative run differentials (-31 for Toronto, -44 for Texas) and need a sweep to sustain postseason hopes. 19
- Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (Sept. 18–20): An AL East matchup featuring the newly crowned division leaders and the top wild card holder. Tampa Bay has a 90.0% division win probability on FanGraphs, while Boston holds a 100% playoff projection. 69
- New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks (Sept. 18–20): Arizona enters the weekend 2.5 games behind San Diego for the final NL Wild Card berth. The Diamondbacks face New York's pitching staff, which leads major league baseball with a 3.24 team ERA, with Cam Schlittler scheduled for the series finale. 19
References
- 1
- 2ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 24
espn.com
- 3The Athletic MLB Power Rankings
nytimes.com
- 4
- 5FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 31–September 6
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 6FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds
fangraphs.com
- 7FanGraphs WAR Leaderboards
fangraphs.com
- 8MLB injury updates
mlb.com
- 9Series to watch
mlb.com
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