2026-08-10 09:00|有色金属事件流(8条)

2026-08-10 09:00|有色金属事件流(8条)

覆盖SHFE铜铝锌铅镍库存、7月有色PPI、美国就业与关键矿业投资的8条结构化事件。

[
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260807-copper-weekly-inventory",
    "title": "上期所铜仓单周减2586吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T07:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260807"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly, Issue No.(30),2026,(Total Issues1397), DATE:2026-08-07",
      "COPPER Unit: Tonne",
      "Previous Week Delivery-able: 69,334 tonnes; Previous Week On Warrant: 25,563 tonnes",
      "This Week Delivery-able: 70,116 tonnes; This Week On Warrant: 22,977 tonnes",
      "Change Delivery-able: +782 tonnes; Change On Warrant: -2,586 tonnes"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上期所铜仓单减少→可交割现货显性供给收紧→铜价获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上期所仓单回升并超过本次2,586吨降幅,或现货升水转为持续贴水"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260807-aluminum-weekly-inventory",
    "title": "上期所铝仓单周减13216吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T07:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260807"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 2
    },
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly, Issue No.(30),2026,(Total Issues1397), DATE:2026-08-07",
      "ALUMINUM Unit: Tonne",
      "Previous Week Delivery-able: 448,742 tonnes; Previous Week On Warrant: 320,224 tonnes",
      "This Week Delivery-able: 435,739 tonnes; This Week On Warrant: 307,008 tonnes",
      "Change Delivery-able: -13,003 tonnes; Change On Warrant: -13,216 tonnes"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上期所铝仓单与可交割库存同步下降→显性供应缓冲收缩→铝价受到支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上期所仓单回补超过13,216吨,或可交割库存连续两周上升"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260807-zinc-weekly-inventory",
    "title": "上期所锌仓单周减6949吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T07:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260807"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 2
    },
    "confidence": 91,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly, Issue No.(30),2026,(Total Issues1397), DATE:2026-08-07",
      "ZINC Unit: Tonne",
      "Previous Week Delivery-able: 151,530 tonnes; Previous Week On Warrant: 117,106 tonnes",
      "This Week Delivery-able: 151,657 tonnes; This Week On Warrant: 110,157 tonnes",
      "Change Delivery-able: +127 tonnes; Change On Warrant: -6,949 tonnes"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上期所锌仓单明显下降→可流通交割货源收紧→锌价受到支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上期所锌仓单回升超过6,949吨,或现货持续大幅贴水"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260807-lead-weekly-inventory",
    "title": "上期所铅仓单周减3336吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T07:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260807"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly, Issue No.(30),2026,(Total Issues1397), DATE:2026-08-07",
      "LEAD Unit: Tonne",
      "Previous Week Delivery-able: 71,617 tonnes; Previous Week On Warrant: 59,972 tonnes",
      "This Week Delivery-able: 70,698 tonnes; This Week On Warrant: 56,636 tonnes",
      "Change Delivery-able: -919 tonnes; Change On Warrant: -3,336 tonnes"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上期所铅仓单与可交割库存下降→显性供应余量减少→铅价获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上期所铅仓单回升超过3,336吨,或再生铅供应显著增加"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-shfe-20260807-nickel-weekly-inventory",
    "title": "上期所镍仓单周减757吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T07:00:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260807"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly, Issue No.(30),2026,(Total Issues1397), DATE:2026-08-07",
      "NICKEL Unit: Tonne",
      "Previous Week Delivery-able: 111,974 tonnes; Previous Week On Warrant: 101,152 tonnes",
      "This Week Delivery-able: 113,251 tonnes; This Week On Warrant: 100,395 tonnes",
      "Change Delivery-able: +1,277 tonnes; Change On Warrant: -757 tonnes"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "上期所镍仓单小幅下降→短期可流通交割货源减少→镍价获得轻微支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上期所镍仓单回升超过757吨,或可交割库存继续增加并转化为仓单"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "nbs-cn-20260809-nonferrous-ppi-july",
    "title": "7月有色采选与冶炼PPI环比分别降2.1%和1.7%",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-09T01:30:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-09T01:30:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年7月份,全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨3.5%,环比下降0.7%",
      "有色金属矿采选业:环比-2.1%,同比+22.6%,1—7月同比+30.4%",
      "有色金属冶炼和压延加工业:环比-1.7%,同比+20.2%,1—7月同比+21.7%"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "有色采选与冶炼价格环比回落→产业链短期价格动量减弱→有色金属价格承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续月度PPI显示有色采选与冶炼环比同时转正,或现货价格在下一统计期显著反弹",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202608/t20260809_1965007.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "whitehouse-us-20260807-critical-mining-investments",
    "title": "美国公布逾20亿美元关键矿业项目",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-07T19:44:19Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T19:44:19Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "event_type": "infrastructure_demand",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 87,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": [
      "The White House announced over $2 billion in critical mining and mining-related projects and over $180 million in mining school investments",
      "Department of War: over $85 million into Standard Bauxite for refractory-grade bauxite",
      "Department of War: $1.4 billion into Sila Nanotechnologies for silicon-carbon battery anodes and a lithium-ion battery cell facility",
      "Department of War: $400 million into Sunrise Energy Metals for a full scandium value chain and primary scandium mine",
      "Development Finance Corporation: matching a $4.8 million investment into Harena Rare Earths for a Madagascar rare-earth mine"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "美国关键矿业投资落地→矿山与加工设施资本开支增加→相关有色金属中期需求预期改善",
    "invalidation_conditions": "项目融资被撤销或延期、审批未通过,或后续文件下调投资金额与建设范围",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-billions-in-new-deals-and-investments-to-power-american-mining/"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "bls-us-20260807-july-employment",
    "title": "美国7月非农就业减少2.3万人",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-07T12:30:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T12:30:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 84,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "Total nonfarm payroll employment: -23,000 in July 2026",
      "Unemployment rate: 4.1%",
      "Unemployed people: 6.9 million",
      "Average monthly payroll gain over the prior 12 months: 34,000"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "美国非农就业下降→增长与工业需求预期走弱→有色金属风险偏好和需求定价承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续非农被大幅上修、失业率下降,或同期制造业与消费数据显著强于预期",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08072026.htm"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  }
]

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