2026-08-11 09:00｜有色金属事件流（6条）

[
  {
    "event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260810-copper-spot",
    "title": "上海平水铜升水下调至40—80元/吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T09:10:55Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU2Mzc2Nzc4NA==&mid=2247535779&idx=3&sn=572e925408593ff0e9578ee4e20b3f92"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月10日，上海平水铜对沪铜2608合约首轮报升水80—90元/吨；随后金川ISA、铁峰及中条山下调至升水40—50元/吨，鲁方、JCC及大江大板报升水60—80元/吨",
      "好铜货源中金豚大板报升水140元/吨；非注册铜LULIU、TFM及COMMUS报贴水70—60元/吨，KCC报贴水100—90元/吨",
      "上海电解铜销售情绪指数2.71，环比下降0.48；采购情绪指数2.57，环比下降0.49"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "平水铜升水下调且采购、销售情绪同步走弱→上海现货承接力下降→铜价及有色板块短线承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续上海平水铜升水重回80元/吨以上，且采购情绪指数回升至3.06以上"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-eastchina-20260810-copper-social-stocks",
    "title": "沪苏铜社库合计9.64万吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T09:10:55Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU2Mzc2Nzc4NA==&mid=2247535779&idx=3&sn=572e925408593ff0e9578ee4e20b3f92"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 91,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月10日，SMM口径上海地区铜社会库存7.83万吨，较上周四增加0.22万吨",
      "江苏地区铜社会库存1.81万吨，较上周四减少0.24万吨",
      "上海与江苏铜社会库存合计9.64万吨，较上周四净减少0.02万吨；合计值由7.83万吨与1.81万吨相加得到"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "沪苏铜社库合计小幅净降但上海累库、江苏去库→区域库存信号相互抵消→铜价短线方向中性",
    "invalidation_conditions": "SMM后续修正本次社库数据，或下一次更新显示沪苏合计库存单向增减超过0.5万吨"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-indonesia-20260810-nickel-intermediate",
    "title": "印尼MHP镍FOB报15208美元/镍吨",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T10:21:44Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkxMDI5Nzg5MQ==&mid=2247501655&idx=3&sn=75671b18a310c393c0afa70fab950ba8"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B",
    "event_type": "supply_demand",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 89,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "2026年8月10日，印尼MHP镍FOB报价15208美元/镍金属吨，MHP钴FOB报价46893美元/钴金属吨",
      "MHP对SMM电池级硫酸镍指数的系数为83—84",
      "印尼高冰镍FOB报价15633美元/镍金属吨；SMM高镍生铁市场情绪因子1.95，环比持平"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "MHP与高冰镍FOB价格形成新增中间品成本基准→硫酸镍及精炼镍原料估值获得锚点→镍价方向暂维持中性",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续MHP系数脱离83—84，或MHP、高冰镍FOB报价出现明确同向变动"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "fed-us-20260810-h10-dollar",
    "title": "美联储Broad美元指数周降1.41%",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T20:15:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T20:15:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/20260810/"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "美联储H.10于美东时间2026年8月10日16:15更新；美元Broad指数基期为2006年1月=100",
      "美元Broad指数由8月3日120.7739降至8月7日119.0649，下降1.7090点，按两端值计算降幅1.41%",
      "8月7日AFE美元指数112.3595、EME美元指数127.5866；欧元兑美元1.1559，美元兑日元157.54，美元兑人民币6.7474"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "美元Broad指数周内走弱→美元计价金属的非美货币购买成本下降→铜、铝等有色金属价格获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元Broad指数升破8月3日的120.7739，或美联储修正本次汇率数据"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "fed-us-20260810-h15-rates",
    "title": "美国10年期国债收益率报4.65%",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-08-10T20:15:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T20:15:00Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": [
      "美联储H.15于美东时间2026年8月10日16:15发布，表内最新数据日为8月7日",
      "8月7日有效联邦基金利率3.63%，银行最优惠贷款利率6.75%，一级信贷利率3.75%",
      "8月7日美国国债恒定期限收益率：2年期4.19%、10年期4.65%、30年期5.19%；10年期与2年期利差为46个基点",
      "8月7日TIPS实际收益率：5年期2.13%、10年期2.40%、30年期2.96%"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "10年期实际收益率维持2.40%且名义收益率为4.65%→持有与融资成本保持高位→有色金属估值承压",
    "invalidation_conditions": "下一次H.15更新显示10年期名义及实际收益率显著回落，或本次数据被官方修正"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "doe-puertorico-20260810-grid-orders",
    "title": "美国电网紧急令延长至11月7日",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T14:21:30Z",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-secretary-continues-progress-strengthen-energy-reliability-puerto-rico-0",
      "https://www.energy.gov/ceser/2026-doe-202c-orders"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A",
    "event_type": "infrastructure_demand",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": [
      "美国能源部续签针对波多黎各电力局的202-25-1E与202-25-2E号命令，生效期为2026年8月10日至11月7日",
      "自2025年5月首次签发紧急命令以来，波多黎各已恢复或翻新接近1600兆瓦发电容量",
      "联邦植被清理项目由5个增至33个，相关电网服务约320万居民"
    ],
    "transmission_chain": "电网紧急令延长并扩大运维项目→发电、输电走廊及配套设备继续修复→铜、铝等电网材料需求预期获得支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美国能源部撤销或缩短两项命令，或项目关闭且后续不再投入电网修复"
  }
]
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