Mona Lisa leads May 29 radar at −37.0%, dual-source restored
31213 Mona Lisa leads at −37.0%/+28.71%; PriceCharting back; Mercari+Depop restored.
PriceCharting returned to normal today after a full day of 404 errors on May 28 — dual-source triangulation (BrickRanker + PriceCharting) is back for all 10 tracked sets. No secondary-market listings with verifiable 24-hour timestamps were confirmed — the 19th consecutive zero-listing day on eBay. Mercari and Depop both returned results this run after multiple cycles of either blocked indexing or empty results; neither platform provides timestamps in search snippets, so no listings can be attributed to today's window yet, but the signal reversal is worth watching. Today's lead is 31213 Mona Lisa, whose cooldown lifted this morning. The runner-up is 75405 Home One Mon Calamari Star Cruiser, carrying the freshest Star Wars data in the cohort. The high-ceiling speculative pick is 42158 NASA Mars Perseverance Rover, with the highest two-year forecast of any tracked set.
Quick-scan summary
New secondary-market listings confirmed: 0. Dual-source (BrickRanker + PriceCharting) restored today. All prices USD. BR = BrickRanker 6-month rolling average. Sets on cooldown excluded from ranked positions.
| Rank | Set | MSRP | BR avg | vs. MSRP | PC New | 2-yr forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 31213 Art Mona Lisa | $99.99 | $62.98 | −37.0% | $66.80 | +28.71% |
| #2 | 75405 SW Home One Starcruiser | $69.99 | $48.77 | −30.3% | $40.74 | +20.57% |
| #3 | 42158 Technic NASA Mars Rover | $99.99 | $68.28 | −31.7% | $60.00 | +40.21% |
| ref | 75404 SW Acclamator Assault Ship | $49.99 | $36.66 | −26.7% | $34.24 | +21.20% |
| ref | 75401 SW Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor | $44.99 | $32.93 | −26.8% | $33.50 | +14.13% |
| ref | 10338 Icons Bumblebee | $89.99 | $66.43 | −26.2% | $63.49 | +23.57% |
#1 — 31213 Mona Lisa
Set 31213-1 | Art | 1,503 pieces | no minifigures | MSRP $99.99 | Retiring estimated Jul 31, 2026 (~9 weeks)
BrickRanker's 6-month average sits at $62.98, putting this set −37.0% below its $99.99 MSRP — the deepest discount among all 10 sets tracked today. 1 The two-year post-retirement forecast is +28.71% (range: +21.93% to +35.49%), implying an estimated value of ~$81 within two years of the July retirement. PriceCharting's New condition price is $66.80, confirmed by a May 26 eBay sale at $69.00. 2 The BR-PC spread is narrow at 6.1% — the two sources are in close agreement.
One caveat: BrickRanker's dataset for 31213 was last refreshed on April 26, roughly 33 days ago, covering 42 total recorded sales. PriceCharting's active eBay transaction history validates the price trend, so the directional signal is solid, but buyers should search "LEGO 31213 sealed" on completed eBay listings to verify the current floor before committing.
This is 31213's first eligible feature since May 22. Its discount-to-forecast combination ranks highest among today's cooldown-free candidates.
Authentication checklist for 31213
The Art line's mosaic-tile construction creates a specific set of authentication risks:
- Tile color consistency: 31213 uses thousands of 1×1 round printed tiles across a tight beige-gold-brown-black palette. Counterfeit production frequently shows inconsistent dye lots — tiles from the same nominal color will vary under daylight, especially in the face shadow areas. Authentic LEGO tile batches are tightly color-controlled.
- Box seal and inner packaging: LEGO Art sets use a factory-applied inner polybag seal on the top flap. Any listing described as "sealed" with visible tape repair or residue at the top edge is a resealing red flag. The break-line on the genuine seal tears cleanly from the flap edge.
- LEGO logo on round tiles: Every genuine 1×1 round tile carries a raised LEGO logo on the stud face. On counterfeits this logo is absent, shallow, or off-center. With 1,503 pieces in the set, spot-checking a few loose tiles from one bag is fast and reliable.
#2 — 75405 Home One Mon Calamari Star Cruiser
Set 75405-1 | Star Wars | 559 pieces | MSRP $69.99 | Retiring estimated Jul 31, 2026 (~9 weeks)
BrickRanker's average is $48.77, which is −30.3% below the $69.99 MSRP. 3 The two-year forecast is +20.57% (range: +13.71% to +31.85%), projecting an estimated value of ~$84 in two years. Data was last refreshed May 26 — the freshest in the Star Wars subset.
PriceCharting places New condition at $40.74, confirmed by a May 26 eBay sale at $34.99. 4 The BR-PC gap here is wider than 31213: BR $48.77 vs. PC Complete $39.80, a 22.5% spread. This gap is directionally consistent — both sources confirm the set trades well below MSRP — but buyers using PC as a floor reference should factor that the $39–$40 PC range represents completed-eBay activity, while BR's $48.77 reflects a broader 6-month aggregation that may include new-in-box premium sales.
75405 ranks second rather than first today because Mona Lisa's discount runs deeper and the BR-PC agreement on 31213 is tighter. But for buyers focused on the Star Wars theme — or those who already hold positions in the July wave — Home One is the cleanest, most current data point in the subset.
Authentication checklist for 75405
- Minifigure inclusion: The official set includes specific Star Wars characters (Admiral Ackbar and others). Check that the minifigure lineup matches the set listing exactly. Any listing with figures swapped out or "bonus figures included" is a red flag for parting-out or counterfeiting.
- Hull surface detail: The Mon Calamari cruiser's organic hull shape uses custom curved panels. Counterfeit runs often substitute flat plate assemblies for the molded pieces, which produces visible flat facets on areas that should be gently curved. Review photos closely for smooth organic curves vs. sharp plate edges.
- Sticker condition on sealed sets: 75405 includes a sticker sheet. Legitimate sealed copies have the sticker sheet factory-folded inside the box, never pre-applied. Any sealed listing where some stickers appear applied in the product photos is inconsistent with factory sealing.
#3 — 42158 NASA Mars Perseverance Rover
Set 42158-1 | Technic | 1,132 pieces | MSRP $99.99 | Retiring estimated Jul 31, 2026 (~9 weeks)
BrickRanker's average is $68.28, which is −31.7% below MSRP. 5 The two-year forecast is +40.21% (range: +37.54% to +42.98%) — the highest in the entire July 2026 cohort and notable for its tight confidence band. PriceCharting's New condition is $60.00, confirmed by a May 27 eBay sale at $60.00. 6 PriceCharting records roughly 3 New-condition sales per week, making this one of the more liquid sets in the tracked group.
The key caveat: BrickRanker's dataset was last refreshed on April 26 — 33 days ago. The $68.28 average may not reflect current market activity. PriceCharting's May 27 sale at $60.00 suggests the floor is lower than BR's aggregated figure; buyers should treat $60 (PC) as the more reliable current reference and $68 (BR) as the broader trend line.
This set ranks third rather than second because the stale BR data makes the discount figure less current than Home One's May 26 refresh. The forecast thesis is stronger than any other set in this cohort, but the underlying BR data needs to be verified against current eBay sold listings before acting on it.
Authentication checklist for 42158
- NASA and LEGO co-branding: The set features both NASA and LEGO branding on printed elements, including a printed tile on the rover deck. Counterfeit versions frequently use sticker approximations instead of printed elements, or get the NASA logotype wrong (the authentic "worm" logo has specific proportions). Check that all branded elements are printed pieces, not stickers.
- Functional mechanism: The Mars Rover build includes a working arm mechanism and articulated wheels. Counterfeit kits often simplify or omit these functional assemblies, substituting non-articulating placeholder builds. Ask the seller to demonstrate movement in video if buying higher-value copies.
- Piece count verification: 1,132 pieces at the $60–68 market price is an above-average part-per-dollar ratio. Counterfeit kits in this range often include filler pieces (duplicate bricks in wrong colors) to hit an approximate piece count while omitting the specialized parts. Request an inventory-check video for high-value purchases.
Reference set data
Three additional July-retiring sets have current dual-source pricing. These are not today's ranked picks but are included for collectors building positions in the July wave.
| Set | MSRP | BR avg | vs. MSRP | PC New | 2-yr forecast | BR last update | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75404 SW Acclamator Assault Ship | $49.99 | $36.66 | −26.7% | $34.24 | +21.20% | May 26 | BR-PC gap 38% (BR includes New premium) |
| 75401 SW Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor | $44.99 | $32.93 | −26.8% | $33.50 | +14.13% | May 26 | BR-PC spread only 1.7% — dual-source tightest |
| 10338 Icons Bumblebee | $89.99 | $66.43 | −26.2% | $63.49 | +23.57% | May 26 | $114.89 outlier unconfirmed — see note |
75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor is the cleanest data point among the three reference sets — BR $32.93 and PC New $33.50 are within 1.7% of each other, confirming the $33–34 range as the current market. The 290-piece set is compact, and much of its value sits in the Anakin Skywalker and Ahsoka Tano minifigures, which are exclusive to this set. 9 Verify figures first when evaluating any listing.
10338 Bumblebee: a previously reported May 2026 BrickRanker sale at $114.89 does not appear in PriceCharting's complete New-condition sales history for this set. All PriceCharting-recorded May 2026 New transactions fall between $51.00 and $76.00, with the most recent on May 28 at $66.49. 12 The $114.89 figure likely reflects a non-standard condition (graded/sealed collector copy), a bundled listing, or a data entry error. Use $63–66 as the reliable New-condition range.
Marketplace scanner: Mercari and Depop return
eBay returned zero results on the Serper
recency=day filter, confirming no new sealed retired listings in the 24-hour window — the 19th consecutive zero run. 13Both Mercari and Depop reversed prior inaccessibility in today's scan. Mercari had been confirmed blocked by Cloudflare as recently as May 27; today's scan returned five listings (sets 75257, 21319, 76155, 40484, and 21114). Depop, which had returned zero results for five or more consecutive cycles, returned five listings (sellers @pgthirteen_, @fromhawaii614, @thriftyponds, @kmwells14, @meeoooww). Neither platform includes listing timestamps in search snippets, so none of these listings can be confirmed within the 24-hour window. They are noted as a signal, not as verified new listings.
If both platforms remain indexable in upcoming scans, individual listing pages may be checked for "Posted X hours ago" fields to filter for same-day activity.
| Platform | Today's result | Timestamp available | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| eBay | 0 results (recency=day) | N/A | 19th consecutive zero |
| Vinted | 3–4 results, 1 confirmed 2 months old | No | No change |
| Mercari | 5 results | No | Restored — was blocked May 27 |
| Depop | 5 results | No | Restored — was zero for 5+ cycles |
Source: 13
Price data: BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages; PriceCharting completed-eBay sales. Data dates per set as noted — stale figures flagged explicitly. No secondary-market listings with verifiable 24-hour timestamps were confirmed in today's observation window. Buy guidance is based on available market data, not live listing prices. Verify listings independently before purchasing.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
References
- 1LEGO Mona Lisa (31213-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 2Mona Lisa #31213 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 3LEGO Home One Starcruiser (75405-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 4Home One Starcruiser #75405 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 5LEGO NASA Mars Perseverance Rover (42158-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 6NASA Mars Rover Perseverance #42158 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 7LEGO Acclamator-class Assault Ship (75404-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 8Acclamator-Class Assault Ship #75404 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 9LEGO Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor (75401-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 10Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor #75401 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 11LEGO Bumblebee (10338-1) — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
- 12Bumblebee #10338 LEGO Set Prices — PriceCharting
pricecharting.com
- 13Retirement Tracker — BrickRanker
brickranker.com
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