2026-09-01 09:00｜有色金属事件流（11条）
本批次覆盖上期所仓单、白银现货基差、锡期限结构、铅期限结构与铅精矿加工费。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-cu-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE铜仓单减少1122吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 30340,
"day_change_tonne": -1122,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜仓单减少1122吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割铜资源边际收缩 → 铜近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的铜日变动转为增加，或铜现货升贴水走弱并持续两个报告日时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_cu_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-al-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE铝仓单减少3816吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 241694,
"day_change_tonne": -3816,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "铝仓单减少3816吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割铝资源边际收缩 → 铝近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的铝日变动转为增加，或铝现货升贴水走弱并持续两个报告日时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_al_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-zn-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE锌仓单减少9497吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 102672,
"day_change_tonne": -9497,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "锌仓单减少9497吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割锌资源边际收缩 → 锌近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的锌日变动转为增加，或锌现货升贴水走弱并持续两个报告日时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_zn_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-pb-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE铅仓单增加703吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 57643,
"day_change_tonne": 703,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "铅仓单增加703吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割铅资源边际增加 → 铅近月价格可能面临供给压力（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的铅日变动转为减少，或铅现货提货加快并使现货升贴水走强时，该边际供给压力判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_pb_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-ni-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE镍仓单减少535吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 100936,
"day_change_tonne": -535,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "镍仓单减少535吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割镍资源边际收缩 → 镍近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的镍日变动转为增加，或镍现货升贴水走弱并持续两个报告日时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_ni_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-sn-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE锡仓单减少348吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "期货仓单数量（报告注释：Futures refer to the quantity of the commodities on warrant）",
"on_warrant_tonne": 5131,
"day_change_tonne": -348,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "锡仓单减少348吨 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割锡资源边际收缩 → 锡近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的锡日变动转为增加，或锡现货升贴水走弱并持续两个报告日时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_sn_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-ao-20260831-inventory",
"title": "SHFE氧化铝仓库仓单减少598吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-160",
"data_date": "2026-08-31",
"metric": "氧化铝仓单数量，仓库仓单与厂库仓单分列",
"warehouse_on_warrant_tonne": 242080,
"warehouse_day_change_tonne": -598,
"factory_warehouse_on_warrant_tonne": 9300,
"factory_warehouse_day_change_tonne": 0,
"comparison_period": "相对上一报告日的日变化",
"http_last_modified_utc": "2026-08-31T07:06:10Z",
"scope_note": "仓单对应的期货交割货物数量；该口径不等同于全社会库存。",
"timestamp_evidence": "官方分品种数据文件HTTP Last-Modified"
},
"transmission_chain": "氧化铝仓库仓单减少598吨且厂库仓单持平 → 交易所仓单口径的可交割氧化铝资源边际收缩 → 氧化铝近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径仓单日报的仓库仓单日变动转为增加，或氧化铝产量增加并使现货价格走弱时，该边际收紧判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260831/ZH/all.html",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_ao_20260831.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-ag-20260831-spot-basis",
"title": "SMM白银现货均价跌3.07%",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T07:55:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T07:55:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 86,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_beijing": "2026-08-31 15:55:00",
"spot_quote_range_cny_per_kg": [
16139,
16149
],
"spot_average_cny_per_kg": 16144,
"day_change_pct": -3.07,
"comparison_period": "相对前一交易日",
"event_time_basis": "来源文章发布时间；现货报价属于2026-08-31上午，原文未给出具体报价时刻。",
"spot_market_comment": "原文称月底持货商出货意愿偏弱、实际成交疲软。",
"basis_vs_shfe_2610_cny_per_kg": {
"quote": "贴水",
"from": -45,
"to": -35,
"ordering": "从较深贴水到较浅贴水"
}
},
"transmission_chain": "白银现货均价较前一交易日下跌3.07%且对SHFE2610贴水45至35元/千克 → 原文所述实际成交疲软、现货相对期货偏弱 → 白银近月价格可能承压（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径报价的现货均价高于16144元/千克且日涨跌转正，或对SHFE2610的贴水收窄到小于35元/千克并转为升水时，该短线偏弱判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/news/104088854"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-sn-20260831-spot-basis",
"title": "LME锡0—3月现货贴水359美元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T09:54:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T09:54:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": -1,
"confidence": 83,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_beijing": "2026-08-31 17:54:00",
"lme_tin_0_3_month_basis_usd_per_tonne": {
"quote": "贴水",
"value": -359
},
"comparison_period": "上周数据",
"event_time_basis": "来源文章发布时间；期限结构数据属于上周，原文未给出具体观测日。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME锡0—3月现货贴水359美元/吨 → 近月相对远月偏弱 → 锡近月价格可能承压（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径报告的0—3月贴水绝对值小于359美元/吨、转为升水，或锡库存连续两个报告日下降时，该期限结构偏弱判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/news/104089141"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-pb-20260831-spot-basis",
"title": "LME铅0—3月贴水收窄至32.23美元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T10:17:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T10:17:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 1,
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_beijing": "2026-08-31 18:17:00",
"lme_lead_0_3_month_basis_usd_per_tonne": {
"quote": "贴水",
"value": -32.23
},
"basis_change": {
"direction": "贴水收窄",
"prior_value": null,
"change_amount": null,
"source_statement": "原文称贴水收窄，未披露前值和收窄幅度"
},
"comparison_period": "上周数据",
"event_time_basis": "来源文章发布时间；期限结构数据属于上周，原文未给出具体观测日。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铅0—3月贴水收窄至32.23美元/吨 → 近月相对远月的期限结构较前期改善 → 铅近月价格可能获得支撑（推断）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径报告的0—3月贴水绝对值大于32.23美元/吨、期限结构重新走弱，或LME铅库存连续两个报告日增加时，该期限结构改善判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/news/104089249"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-pb-20260831-tc",
"title": "SMM铅精矿国产与进口TC均持平",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T10:17:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T10:17:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"direction_score": 0,
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_beijing": "2026-08-31 18:17:00",
"smm_pb50_domestic_tc_cny_per_metal_tonne": {
"value": 150,
"change": "持平",
"comparison": "持平，原文未披露前值"
},
"smm_pb60_import_tc_usd_per_dmt": {
"value": -170,
"change": "持平",
"comparison": "持平，原文未披露前值"
},
"comparison_period": "上周口径（原文未给出具体日期）",
"event_time_basis": "来源文章发布时间；TC为前期/上周口径，原文未给出具体观测日。",
"prior_values_disclosed": false
},
"transmission_chain": "国产Pb50与进口Pb60加工费分别持平150元/金属吨和-170美元/干吨 → 冶炼加工费较前期没有边际变化 → 该TC指标对铅价的新增方向信号为中性（仅限TC维度）",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径报告将Pb50国产TC或Pb60进口TC调整，或出现可核验的铅精矿供应与冶炼产量变化时，该TC中性判断失效。",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/news/104089249"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
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