2026-09-11 10:00|有色金属事件流(13条)

2026-09-11 10:00|有色金属事件流(13条)

覆盖北京时间2026-09-10 14:00—2026-09-11 10:00,纳入上期所仓单、LME官方价、美国宏观、央行逆回购及现货升贴水与加工费共13条事件。

[
  {
    "event_id": "shfe-cn-20260910-warrant-inventory",
    "event_type": "inventory",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "上期所9月10日有色仓单净减少1781吨,铝去库1720吨",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T07:11:14Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "data_date_beijing": "2026-09-10",
      "report_issue": "2026年第168期(总第4361期)",
      "server_last_modified_beijing": "2026-09-10 15:11:14",
      "unit": "吨",
      "warrant_type": "期货仓单(on-warrant)",
      "copper_warrant_tonnes": 21155,
      "copper_daily_change_tonnes": 146,
      "aluminum_warrant_tonnes": 213599,
      "aluminum_daily_change_tonnes": -1720,
      "zinc_warrant_tonnes": 92655,
      "zinc_daily_change_tonnes": 273,
      "lead_warrant_tonnes": 58291,
      "lead_daily_change_tonnes": 0,
      "nickel_warrant_tonnes": 98226,
      "nickel_daily_change_tonnes": -425,
      "tin_warrant_tonnes": 5573,
      "tin_daily_change_tonnes": -25,
      "alumina_warehouse_warrant_tonnes": 266976,
      "alumina_factory_warrant_tonnes": 9300,
      "alumina_total_warrant_tonnes": 276276,
      "alumina_daily_change_tonnes": 0,
      "foundry_aluminum_alloy_warrant_tonnes": 23014,
      "foundry_aluminum_alloy_daily_change_tonnes": -30,
      "bc_copper_warrant_tonnes": 7000,
      "bc_copper_daily_change_tonnes": 0,
      "net_change_tonnes": -1781,
      "net_change_note": "净减少1781吨为铜(+146)、铝(-1720)、锌(+273)、铅(0)、镍(-425)、锡(-25)、氧化铝(0)、铸造铝合金(-30)、BC铜(0)共九个有色品种期货仓单日增减代数和",
      "comparison_basis": "较前一交易日(2026-09-09)官方仓单日报逐项闭合"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "上期所铝仓单减少1720吨且镍锡仓单去化→可交割现货仓单边际收紧但铜锌小幅累库→对有色板块整体价格形成中性偏紧支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "上期所官方修订2026-09-10仓单日报数据,或下一交易日各品种仓单大幅反向累库",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260910/ZH/all.html",
      "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260910/EN/shfe/all.html?params=1"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "lme-uk-20260910-official-prices",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "LME公布9月10日官方价,铜现货卖价14390美元三月期14371美元",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T12:25:00Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "data_valid_date": "2026-09-10",
      "official_release_window_london": "12:20-13:25 BST",
      "unit": "美元/吨(USD/tonne)",
      "price_type": "Bid/Ask",
      "copper_cash_usd_per_tonne": "14388.00/14390.00",
      "copper_3m_usd_per_tonne": "14370.00/14371.00",
      "aluminum_cash_usd_per_tonne": "3342.00/3343.00",
      "aluminum_3m_usd_per_tonne": "3316.00/3318.00",
      "zinc_cash_usd_per_tonne": "4103.00/4105.00",
      "zinc_3m_usd_per_tonne": "3960.00/3962.00",
      "nickel_cash_usd_per_tonne": "16620.00/16630.00",
      "nickel_3m_usd_per_tonne": "16750.00/16760.00",
      "lead_cash_usd_per_tonne": "1870.00/1870.50",
      "lead_3m_usd_per_tonne": "1902.00/1902.50",
      "tin_cash_usd_per_tonne": "54725.00/54750.00",
      "tin_3m_usd_per_tonne": "54900.00/54910.00",
      "cash_spread_structure": "铜、铝、锌呈现现货升水结构(Cash Ask > 3M Ask),镍、铅、锡呈现贴水结构(Cash Ask < 3M Ask)"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "LME公布六金属官方现货与3个月报价→现货相对3个月呈现铜铝锌升水与镍铅锡贴水分化结构→为场外定价与基差套利提供权威结算基准",
    "invalidation_conditions": "LME官方更正2026-09-10官方价格数据,或次日官方结算价出现超预期大幅跳空",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "bls-us-20260910-ppi",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "美国8月PPI环比上涨0.4%,有色废料环比涨3.7%",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T12:30:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T12:30:00Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "release_code": "USDL-26-1495",
      "report_period": "2026年8月",
      "release_time_et": "2026-09-10 08:30 EDT",
      "final_demand_ppi_mom_percent": 0.4,
      "final_demand_ppi_prior_month_mom_percent": 0.1,
      "final_demand_ppi_yoy_percent": 5.4,
      "core_ppi_ex_food_energy_trade_mom_percent": 0.3,
      "core_ppi_ex_food_energy_trade_yoy_percent": 4.7,
      "final_demand_goods_mom_percent": 1.1,
      "final_demand_energy_mom_percent": 4.2,
      "diesel_fuel_mom_percent": 24.1,
      "nonferrous_scrap_mom_percent": 3.7,
      "aluminum_mill_shapes_trend": "下降",
      "intermediate_demand_processed_goods_mom_percent": 1.8,
      "intermediate_demand_unprocessed_goods_mom_percent": 1.1
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美国8月最终需求PPI环比加速至+0.4%且能源上涨4.2%→通胀粘性预期升温压制降息预期与推升美元→抑制有色金属大宗商品金融属性估值",
    "invalidation_conditions": "BLS后续月度发布对8月PPI进行大幅下修,或美联储政策表态淡化PPI通胀扰动",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_09102026.htm"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "dol-us-20260910-initial-jobless-claims",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "美国至9月5日当周初请失业金20.6万人,环比减少千人",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T12:30:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T12:30:00Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "report_week_ended": "2026-09-05",
      "release_time_et": "2026-09-10 08:30 EDT",
      "seasonally_adjusted_initial_claims": 206000,
      "initial_claims_change_vs_prior_week": -1000,
      "prior_week_revised_initial_claims": 207000,
      "four_week_moving_average_initial_claims": 206000,
      "four_week_average_change": -1500,
      "seasonally_adjusted_continuing_claims_week_ended_aug_29": 1774000,
      "continuing_claims_change": -1000,
      "insured_unemployment_rate_percent": 1.2,
      "unadjusted_initial_claims": 176567,
      "unadjusted_initial_claims_change_percent": 3.0
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美国单周初请失业金20.6万人且4周均值降至20.6万人→劳动力市场平稳未出现失速恶化→宏观需求韧性与利率约束相互对冲维持中性",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美国劳工部后续大幅上修当周初请失业金人数,或后续非农就业等劳动力指标显著转弱",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260910"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "federalreserve-us-20260910-h41-reserves",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "美联储H.4.1显示存款机构准备金单周增加968亿美元",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T20:30:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T20:30:00Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "statistical_release": "Federal Reserve H.4.1",
      "statement_week_ended": "2026-09-09",
      "release_time_et": "2026-09-10 16:30 EDT",
      "unit": "百万美元(million USD)",
      "reserve_balances_with_federal_reserve_banks": 2991310,
      "reserve_balances_weekly_change": 96779,
      "us_treasury_general_account_tga": 883335,
      "us_treasury_tga_weekly_change": -84600,
      "securities_held_outright": 6468272,
      "securities_held_weekly_change": 2997,
      "total_factors_supplying_reserve_funds": 6691811,
      "reverse_repurchase_agreements": 351659,
      "reverse_repurchase_weekly_change": -13384
    },
    "transmission_chain": "财政部一般账户TGA释放846亿美元且银行准备金回升968亿美元至2.99万亿美元→美元流动性短期边际充裕但总资产扩张有限→对大宗商品资金面形成中性平稳环境",
    "invalidation_conditions": "美联储次周H.4.1报告显示准备金出现逆向大幅回笼,或财政部发债缴款导致流动性骤缩",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20260910"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "pboc-cn-20260911-omo-7d",
    "event_type": "macro_release",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "央行9月11日开展40亿元7天逆回购,利率1.40%",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T01:20:30Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T01:20:30Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "operation_date_beijing": "2026-09-11",
      "exact_release_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 09:20:30",
      "instrument": "7天期逆回购",
      "bidding_mode": "固定利率、数量招标",
      "operation_amount_yuan": 4000000000,
      "operation_amount_words": "40亿元人民币",
      "interest_rate_percent": 1.40,
      "satisfaction_ratio": "全额满足一级交易商需求",
      "net_liquidity_note": "公告未披露到期量与净投放量,严格遵循原始事实不作推算"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "央行开展40亿元7天期逆回购操作并维持1.40%操作利率→满足一级交易商短期资金需求→国内流动性环境保持平稳",
    "invalidation_conditions": "央行临时追加公开市场操作或同日公布新的降息降准等重大货币政策指令",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/125431/125475/2026091108502869867/index.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-lme-20260910-cash-spreads",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "LME0-3铜转贴水10.65美元,锌升水123.24美元",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T01:25:54Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "data_date_lme": "2026-09-10",
      "source_published_time_beijing": "2026-09-11 09:25:54",
      "metric": "LME 0-3(现货对3个月)升贴水及总持仓变动",
      "unit_spread": "美元/吨(USD/tonne)",
      "unit_position": "手(lots)",
      "copper_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": -10.65,
      "copper_prior_day_spread_usd_per_tonne": 41.48,
      "copper_spread_structure_change": "由升水41.48美元转为贴水10.65美元(贴水即contango)",
      "copper_total_position_lots": 272728,
      "copper_position_change_lots": 1345,
      "aluminum_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": 22.27,
      "aluminum_prior_day_spread_usd_per_tonne": 15.60,
      "aluminum_total_position_lots": 593718,
      "aluminum_position_change_lots": 1881,
      "zinc_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": 123.24,
      "zinc_prior_day_spread_usd_per_tonne": 151.50,
      "zinc_total_position_lots": 260610,
      "zinc_position_change_lots": -3212,
      "lead_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": -38.00,
      "lead_total_position_lots": 169509,
      "lead_position_change_lots": -3429,
      "tin_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": -312.21,
      "tin_total_position_lots": 20329,
      "tin_position_change_lots": -144,
      "nickel_0_3_spread_usd_per_tonne": -146.40,
      "nickel_total_position_lots": 245556,
      "nickel_position_change_lots": 2036
    },
    "transmission_chain": "LME铜0-3现货结构由升水41.48美元转为贴水10.65美元且锌升水收窄→铜锌等主力品种近期实货交割压力显著缓解→外盘现货溢价收缩促使有色盘面承压回调",
    "invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日LME0-3铜重新翻回深升水,或持仓增减出现异动导致逼仓风险重燃",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://news.smm.cn/live/detail/104108937"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260911-cu-morning-basis",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "早盘电解铜上海平水铜升水20元,广东好铜升水150元",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-11T01:54:57Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-11T01:54:57Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "intraday",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "data_cutoff_beijing": "2026-09-11 09:50",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "contract": "对沪铜当月/次月合约升贴水",
      "shanghai_0925_par_copper_quote": "金冠升水20、紫金升水20、大江HS升水20、金川ISA升水20、东南铁峰升水10",
      "shanghai_0925_non_registered_basis": "贴水150至贴水130",
      "shanghai_0950_par_copper_quote": "金川ISA升水20、中条山升水20、东南铁峰升水10、鲁方升水50、大江PC升水40",
      "shanghai_0950_non_registered_basis": "贴水150至贴水120(贴水幅度收窄10元/吨)",
      "guangdong_0940_good_copper_tiefeng_basis": "升水150",
      "guangdong_0940_par_copper_yunxi_basis": "升水150",
      "guangdong_0940_non_registered_basis": "无报价"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "上海平水铜早盘维持升水20元/吨且广东主流品牌升水150元/吨平稳→持货商早间报价挺价意愿较强→现货基差表现平稳为价格提供低位支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "盘中或午盘持货商因出货不畅大幅调低升贴水报价转入贴水区间",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091109/B5C2B09ECA97FA98.html",
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091109/AB656B1072A20FF2.html",
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091109/278A6A2F24BD8FFF.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "smm-shandong-20260910-cu-spot-basis",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "山东电解铜现货均价报贴水130元/吨,周内交投偏冷",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T07:19:21Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T07:19:21Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "region": "山东地区",
      "specification": "电解铜",
      "source_published_time_beijing": "2026-09-10 15:19:21",
      "metric": "现货均价对沪铜合约升贴水",
      "spot_basis_yuan_per_tonne": -130,
      "spot_basis_description": "现货均价报至贴水130元/吨",
      "market_condition": "铜价持续走高与月差维持高位Back结构导致下游观望情绪浓厚,持货商主动降价出货促成交,周内现货成交陷入冷清"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "山东地区电解铜现货均价报贴水130元/吨且成交清淡→区域加工端在高价位对现货接受度低促使持货商降价出货→反映区域现货实体消费跟进乏力",
    "invalidation_conditions": "盘面回调后下游补库带动山东现货由贴水130元/吨大幅收窄或转升水",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://news.smm.cn/live/detail/104108318"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-al-regional-basis",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "佛山A00铝转贴水20元,巩义现货贴水10至20元",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T07:48:00Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T07:48:00Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": -1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "data_cutoff_beijing": "2026-09-10 15:00",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "foshan_a00_aluminum_midprice_yuan_per_tonne": 24780,
      "foshan_a00_aluminum_midprice_change_yuan_per_tonne": -10,
      "foshan_transaction_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "24760-24800",
      "foshan_basis_evolution": "日内报价由平水下调至贴水10元/吨,午后进一步下调至贴水20元/吨",
      "foshan_market_condition": "绝对价格高位,长单现货涌现,中间商接货意愿差,仅刚需采买",
      "gongyi_spot_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "24410-24450",
      "gongyi_spot_midprice_change_vs_prior_day": "持平",
      "gongyi_basis_yuan_per_tonne": "贴水10-20",
      "gongyi_social_inventory_wan_tonnes": 16.0
    },
    "transmission_chain": "佛山A00铝日内由平水下调至贴水20元/吨且巩义报价贴水10至20元/吨→现货长单涌现而下游逢高接货意愿低迷→区域现货基差走弱削弱铝价上方动能",
    "invalidation_conditions": "区域社会库存快速下降带动佛山与巩义报价重新转为升水",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091015/BF87F9401CF30BC0.html",
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091015/6F30BD98B36DB235.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-pb-spot-basis",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "1号铅锭均价16000元/吨,河南对沪铅贴水80至50元",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T07:29:48Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T07:29:48Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 0
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "specification": "1#铅锭",
      "unit": "元/吨",
      "lead_ingot_average_price_yuan_per_tonne": 16000,
      "lead_ingot_price_range_yuan_per_tonne": "15950-16050",
      "lead_ingot_price_change_vs_prior_day": "持平",
      "henan_traders_basis_vs_shfe_2610_yuan_per_tonne": "贴水80-贴水50",
      "hunan_smelter_ex_factory_tax_included_yuan_per_tonne": "16025-16040",
      "jiangxi_smelter_ex_factory_tax_included_yuan_per_tonne": 16125,
      "anhui_smelter_ex_factory_tax_included_yuan_per_tonne": 16105
    },
    "transmission_chain": "国内1号铅锭现货均价持平于16000元/吨且河南贴水维持在贴50至80元/吨→冶炼企业与贸易报价保持平稳→铅锭现货基差维持窄幅盘整中性格局",
    "invalidation_conditions": "主要产区炼企报价发生显著调整,或河南贴水区间突破当前范围",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091017/4195CD6D5F4AF535.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-pb-conc-tc",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "进口铅精矿TC主流负175至负160美元/干吨持平",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T09:45:22Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T09:45:22Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "commodity": "铅精矿加工费(TC)",
      "imported_lead_conc_tc_mainstream_usd_per_dry_tonne": "-175至-160",
      "imported_tc_change_vs_prior_day": "持平",
      "imported_lead_conc_price_change_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -30,
      "domestic_north_china_ex_factory_tc_yuan_per_metal_tonne": 200,
      "domestic_southwest_delivered_tc_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -100,
      "market_assessment": "国产矿现货资源紧张,进口可流通货源偏少,持货商让价意愿低,国内外加工费维持低位运行"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "进口铅精矿TC维持在-175至-160美元/干吨深负值区间且国内部分到厂加工费录得负100元/吨→矿端可流通资源持续紧俏使冶炼原料承压→对铅产业链底部成本形成强支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "国内外铅矿供应大幅改善促使进口TC回升至正值或收窄负值幅度",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091017/0D331954D279A217.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260910-zn-conc-tc",
    "event_type": "spot_basis",
    "asset_keys": [
      "NONFERROUS"
    ],
    "title": "南方国产锌精矿TC下调200元,进口TC负130至负110美元/干吨",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-09-10T10:01:17Z",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-09-10T10:01:17Z",
    "direction_score": {
      "NONFERROUS": 1
    },
    "confidence": 90,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "coverage_window_beijing": "2026-09-10 14:00至2026-09-11 10:00",
      "commodity": "锌精矿加工费(TC)",
      "southern_china_domestic_tc_change_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -200,
      "zinc_conc_price_change_yuan_per_metal_tonne": "220-420",
      "imported_zinc_conc_price_change_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -180,
      "imported_zinc_conc_tc_mainstream_usd_per_dry_tonne": "-130至-110",
      "imported_tc_change_vs_prior_day": "持平",
      "east_china_delivered_tc_50_grade_yuan_per_metal_tonne": -1800,
      "market_condition": "加工费走低叠加副产硫酸价格回落挤压冶炼利润,部分企业减产检修或计划停产,冬储临近使四季度进口矿更趋紧俏"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "南方国产锌精矿TC下调200元/金属吨且进口TC处于负130至负110美元深负值→冶炼厂原料采购成本攀升与加工利润恶化加剧减产预期→从矿端供给紧缩向锌锭价格传导偏多支撑",
    "invalidation_conditions": "海外锌矿大量到港补充或国内矿山增产促使国产及进口TC止跌大幅反弹",
    "source_urls": [
      "https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26091018/4091A6AB89A20541.html"
    ],
    "source_tier": "B"
  }
]

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