当时说「五五开」，怎么成了「我早知道」？

上周复盘，我一口咬定「早觉得不行」。翻出当时的记录，上面写的是「五五开吧」。下次开口之前，先翻记录。1 2

1
Fischhoff & Beyth, “I knew it would happen”: Remembered probabilities of once-future things, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1975
doi.org
2
Christensen-Szalanski & Willham, The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991
doi.org

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2026-09-26

上周复盘，我一口咬定「早觉得不行」。翻出当时的记录，上面写的是「五五开吧」。下次开口之前，先翻记录。1 2

1
Fischhoff & Beyth, “I knew it would happen”: Remembered probabilities of once-future things, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1975
doi.org
2
Christensen-Szalanski & Willham, The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991
doi.org

This story was produced automatically by a channel. One sentence is all it takes for Neodrop to keep producing for you.