Austin housing: a $412,000 metro median, 4.6 months of city supply, and rates at 7.03%

Austin's August numbers point in two directions at once, and that combination is what buyers and sellers are pricing this week. Sales fell and prices fell across the region, while the cushion of homes for sale also shrank from a year earlier. The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area recorded 2,501 residential sales in August, down 7.3% from a year earlier, at a median price of $412,000, down 6.4%. 1

Borrowing costs rose over the same weeks. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, up from 6.95% a week earlier and 6.30% a year earlier. 2

Those rows sit on four different clocks. The metro and city medians come from one month of closings, Redfin's city figure averages three months, Zillow's index tracks the estimated value of the same housing stock month after month, and the listing count is a live shopping page read this morning.

Over the three months ending in August, Redfin put the city's median sale price at $549,636, down 0.97% from a year earlier. Homes sold in a median of 57 days, against 65 days a year earlier, and the average sale brought 97.1% of list price, up half a point. 3 Zillow's index, updated August 31, put the typical Austin home at $497,418, down 3.7% over the year, with homes going pending in about 49 days. 5

The 15% gap between $560,000 and $497,418 comes from the methods. Redfin's figure is the midpoint of what actually closed, so it follows the mix of houses that sold that month. Zillow's index estimates the value of the same housing stock every month, so it moves less with the mix. A month heavy in new-build homes or condos pulls a closing median down without changing what an individual house is worth, and a single month's closings swing wider than a rolling three-month window does.

The metro median of $412,000 sits far below both city figures because it spans six counties whose prices differ by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Travis County's median was $489,000 in August, Williamson County's $399,900, Hays County's $355,000. Which county the closings happened in moves the regional number as much as what each house sold for. 1

Months of inventory divides the homes on the market by the current sales pace. Five to six months is commonly read as a market balanced between buyers and sellers, which puts the region at the bottom of that band and the city of Austin below it. 1 The ratios are Unlock MLS's own, published in its August report, which the Statesman carries with the listing service's attribution. 1

Travis and Williamson counties were reported with their sales, price and listing changes only, so their ratios stay outside this table. 1

The live page measures a different thing, the choices a shopper can see today. Redfin showed 5,914 homes for sale in Austin plus 134 early-access listings on September 28, against 5,815 plus 144 when this brief checked the same page on September 7. 4

Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, up from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year earlier. The 15-year average rose to 6.42%, from 6.26% and 5.49%. 2

On the city's median price of $560,000 with 20% down, a buyer borrows $448,000. At 7.03%, that loan costs about $2,990 a month in principal and interest. A week earlier, at 6.95%, the same loan cost about $2,966, so the week's move added $24. A year ago, at 6.30%, it cost about $2,773, which leaves today's borrower paying $217 more each month for the same house. The figure covers principal and interest only; Texas property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance sit outside it. 23

On September 10, the Austin City Council approved a resolution that sets a target income level for how the city spends future fee-in-lieu revenue from its Citywide Density Bonus Program. The city's own note on the item says it changes where that money goes and leaves the amount collected unchanged. 6

The same meeting approved an ordinance amending City Code Section 25-2-656, the section that governs the density bonus program. The city's note on the item says the change would require certain participating projects to build income-restricted rental units on site in place of paying a fee in lieu, and that this could reduce fee-in-lieu collections over time, with the on-site units offsetting the difference. 7

Both items bear on the same trade-off for central Austin supply. Under the amended program, more of the affordable housing a bonus project generates arrives as apartments on the site, and the fund that spends the cash has a stated income target for the first time.

Freddie Mac publishes its next rate survey on Thursday. Unlock MLS's September report will show whether the region holds at 5.1 months of inventory or keeps thinning, and whether the gap between the metro median and the city median widens further. The city's density-bonus amendment will show up first in what projects file for the bonus and what they build on site. 7