GPOR: Natural gas E&P at 5.6× earnings, PEG 0.26
Gulfport Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: GPOR, $3.02B market cap) is pass #13 in this channel's daily small-cap screen, clearing all four hard filters: TTM revenue growth +90.73%, PEG 0.26 (Finviz, single-source disclosed), TTM OCF $918.83M. The article covers GPOR's Utica/Marcellus/SCOOP asset base, the commodity-cycle backstory behind the 90% revenue surge, a full peer valuation table showing GPOR at roughly half the P/E and EV/EBITDA of RRC/AR/EQT, $416.9M in TTM buybacks exceeding FCF (debt-funded), the LNG export capacity wave as a structural bull catalyst, and four specific risks: gas price reversion, concentrated insider selling by Silver Point and multiple C-suite officers, debt-funded buyback fragility, and new CEO strategic uncertainty.
Pass #13 in this channel's daily small-cap screen. Gulfport Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: GPOR) clears all four hard filters and trades at roughly half the P/E multiple of its closest Appalachian peers — after posting the strongest revenue growth (+90.73% TTM) and the highest return on equity (33.99%) in that peer group. The stock is down 19% year-to-date and sits just 4.4% above its 52-week low, while operating cash flow has climbed to $918.83M.
Current price: $168.06 (June 5, 2026 close). Market cap: $3.02B. 1
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A note on the PEG: Finviz calculates it as Forward P/E 5.57 divided by the 5-year EPS growth forecast of 21.12%, yielding 0.264. That is a single-source figure from Finviz — no cross-verification is available on StockAnalysis for this exact input combination. The calculation checks out mathematically; the key variable to watch is whether the 21.12% long-run growth estimate holds up as gas prices normalize. 12
What Gulfport does
Gulfport Energy is an independent natural gas exploration and production company (E&P) with two core asset bases in the US. The larger position spans the Utica and Marcellus shale formations in Ohio and Pennsylvania (Appalachian Basin), producing 833.0 MMcfe (million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent) per day in Q1 2026. The second position, called SCOOP (South Central Oklahoma Oil Province), operates in Oklahoma and contributed 163.8 MMcfe per day in the same quarter. 3
Natural gas makes up 91% of total production, with NGLs (natural gas liquids) at 7% and crude oil at 2%. The company employs just 245 people, generating revenue per employee of $5.76M — a figure that reflects the capital-intensive, low-headcount nature of shale E&P operations. 1
On May 28, 2026, Domenic J. Dell'Osso, Jr. became Gulfport's new President and CEO. Dell'Osso previously served as CEO of Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake Energy), which under his tenure became the largest US natural gas producer by volume, with a track record focused on capital efficiency and shareholder returns. Former CEO John Reinhart's departure was announced on March 9, 2026. Timothy Cutt continues as non-executive Chairman. 4 Dell'Osso has not yet held an investor day or published a formal capital allocation update.
Revenue trend — the 90% growth story
The 90.73% TTM revenue surge is real, but its backstory matters for judging durability. Gulfport's revenue collapsed 46.52% in FY2024 as Henry Hub natural gas prices fell sharply. The recovery that began in FY2025 (+48.47% YoY) accelerated through Q1 2026, when the company reported $437.53M in quarterly revenue — a 122.06% YoY jump driven by both higher realized prices and modest production growth. 35
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The volatility that chart shows is commodity-cycle normal for natural gas E&P. Investors who buy GPOR are explicitly taking a position on gas prices — the question is whether the current price recovery is durable. 56
Operating cash flow has followed revenue up without the same whipsaw pattern, rising from $650.03M in FY2024 to $803.19M in FY2025 to $918.83M on a TTM basis — a trajectory that shows the business generating cash across cycles, not just at peak prices. 7
Q1 2026 production hit 996.8 MMcfe per day, up 7% year-over-year. Gulfport reaffirmed its full-year 2026 production guidance of 1.030–1.055 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) per day, with Q4 output projected to be roughly 5% above Q4 2025 as the H2 development program ramps. 3
Valuation — cheapest gas E&P by every metric
On every standard E&P valuation metric, GPOR is the cheapest in its natural-gas-focused peer group by a wide margin. The table below compares GPOR against Range Resources (RRC, a Marcellus-focused Appalachian producer and Marcellus shale pioneer based in Fort Worth), Antero Resources (AR, one of the largest Appalachian natural gas and NGL producers), and EQT Corporation (EQT, the only large-scale vertically integrated US natural gas producer, with midstream transmission assets). 8910
| Metric | GPOR | RRC | AR | EQT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 5.56 | 10.35 | 11.52 | 10.19 |
| Forward P/E | 5.57–6.31 | 9.45 | 7.99 | 13.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.39–3.78 | 6.04 | 7.38 | 5.12 |
| P/FCF | 8.35 | 11.38 | 11.58 | 8.30 |
| PEG | 0.26 | 0.59 | n/a | 1.67 |
| ROE | 33.99% | 21.13% | 12.84% | 13.40% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.71× | 0.55× | 1.20× | 0.78× |
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GPOR's EV/EBITDA of 3.39 is less than half the peer group average of roughly 6×. Its trailing P/E of 5.56 compares to a peer range of 10.19–11.52. The discount is notable on a leverage-adjusted basis too: at 0.71× Net Debt/EBITDA, GPOR is not the most leveraged name in this table — AR carries 1.20×. 1
One metric deserves explanation: P/B of 1.68 is in line with peers (RRC 2.00, EQT 1.34). Book value per share is approximately $100.08, which means the stock at $168.06 trades at a modest premium to stated net assets — not a deep value discount on a book basis. The compelling valuation case rests on earnings and cash flow multiples, not asset-replacement cost.
The honest question is whether GPOR deserves a discount at all relative to peers. The answer is probably yes, for two reasons: (1) commodity revenue is inherently volatile, and GPOR's 46.52% revenue collapse in FY2024 is a live demonstration of that; (2) the company lacks EQT's midstream infrastructure buffer or AR's NGL diversification, making Gulfport more directly exposed to Henry Hub swings. Whether the current 50%-off discount on earnings is too deep is the central analytical question.
Balance sheet and capital return
Debt structure: Gulfport carries $650M of senior notes at 6.750% due September 2029, plus $182M drawn on its revolving credit facility and $48.7M in letters of credit. Total debt stands at $824.08M, with cash of just $2.92M — the company runs its balance sheet lean on liquidity. 3
Fitch rates Gulfport BB−/RR3 (speculative grade, with a Recovery Rating of RR3 implying 50–70% expected recovery in a stress scenario). That rating is one notch below investment grade — a meaningful detail for cost of capital, particularly when the company is actively borrowing to fund buybacks. 1
The good news: the interest burden is manageable. At $56.31M in TTM interest expense against $816M in operating income, the interest coverage ratio is 14.49×. Net Debt/EBITDA is 0.71×, Altman Z-Score is 3.73 (above the 3.0 "safe zone" threshold), and Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9 (a composite financial-health score where 7–9 indicates strong fundamentals) — all signals of a financially healthy operation. 1 In May 2026, the borrowing base on the revolving credit facility was confirmed at $1.1B (a 10% increase), lifting total available liquidity to approximately $872M. 3
Buyback program: This is the most distinctive feature of Gulfport's capital allocation. TTM buybacks totaled $416.9M — exceeding free cash flow of $361.66M by $55M, with the gap bridged by $121.30M of net new borrowing. 7 Q1 2026 alone saw a record single-quarter repurchase of $172.8M (863,000 shares at a weighted average price of $199.45). Since the program began in March 2022, Gulfport has repurchased more than $1.0 billion in common shares (including preferred redemptions). 3 The remaining buyback authorization stands at $406.8M.
At the current share count of approximately 18.08M, this is a company retiring 4–5% of its float annually. That mechanical per-share value creation holds even in a flat-price scenario — but it requires the debt-to-fund-buybacks logic to remain financially sound, which in turn requires gas prices to stay high enough to sustain operating cash flows above capital expenditures.
Growth catalysts
LNG export surge — the structural demand story. The primary bull case for US natural gas prices through 2026 and 2027 is a wave of new LNG export terminal capacity pulling incremental feed-gas demand from the domestic grid. Golden Pass LNG (1.4 Bcf/day, Sabine Pass, TX) began operations in April 2026. Corpus Christi Stage 3 adds another 0.6 Bcf/day, and smaller expansions at Plaquemines and Elba Island contribute 0.6 Bcf/day combined — total 2026 new capacity of 2.6 Bcf/day. The 2027 pipeline includes Port Arthur Phase 1 (1.6 Bcf/day), Rio Grande trains 1–2 (1.4 Bcf/day), and the final Golden Pass train (0.7 Bcf/day), adding another 3.7 Bcf/day. LNG feedgas demand is projected to exceed 22 Bcf/day (billion cubic feet per day) ahead of winter 2026. 11
Gulfport's assets are in Appalachian and Oklahoma, not on the Gulf Coast — so the company does not supply LNG feedgas directly. But Appalachian gas flows to Gulf Coast markets via pipeline, and basin-level pricing moves with aggregate national demand. Higher LNG feedgas demand tightens the national supply-demand balance, lifting Henry Hub and, through basis differentials, Appalachian wellhead prices. 12
Storage surplus shrinking. As of the week ending May 29, 2026, US working gas in storage stood at 2,578 Bcf — 138 Bcf (6%) above the five-year average but only 3 Bcf below year-ago levels, a dramatic improvement from the 200+ Bcf surplus that weighed on prices at the start of 2026. 13 Henry Hub winter 2026/27 futures reflect this tightening: the December 2026 contract settled at $4.097 and January 2027 at $4.497, versus the current spot of $3.07. 14
Operational efficiency gains. Q1 2026 brought two specific efficiency improvements: Marcellus drilling speed improved 50% measured in feet per day, and SCOOP drilling cycles came in 25% faster than the company's own internal forecast. Gulfport also completed $39.5M in discretionary acreage acquisitions in Q1 alone, part of $102.4M deployed over the past four quarters to extend its drilling inventory. Management described these bolt-on acquisitions as priced attractively relative to comparable large-scale transactions nearby. 3
Key risks
Gas price reversion (HIGH). Gulfport realized $4.90/Mcf before hedges and $4.22/Mcf after hedges in Q1 2026. The current Henry Hub (the primary US natural gas price benchmark, set at a Louisiana pipeline hub) summer strip — $3.23 to $3.29 for July through October — is 30% below Q1 realized levels. If summer 2026 prices track the strip, Q2 and Q3 revenue will be materially lower than Q1, and the TTM revenue growth rate will compress significantly. The 90.73% TTM growth number is the product of a commodity price cycle. A one-way bet on its persistence is a one-way bet on gas prices. 14
Hedges provide partial protection: 57% of Gulfport's 2026 remaining gas production (approximately April–December) is hedged via fixed-price swaps at $3.82/Mcf and collars with a $3.61 floor. That floor limits downside — but it also means the company is locked out of the full winter 2026 upside at $4.10–$4.50, since those months are partially hedged at $3.82. In 2027, only 35% of production is hedged. 4
Insider and institutional selling (MEDIUM-HIGH). Between December 2025 and April 2026, insiders net-sold 703,756 shares — an 84.5% net negative insider change. The largest single seller was Silver Point Capital, Gulfport's biggest shareholder at 14.51%, which sold approximately 844,156 shares at an average price of $204.22 in early March 2026 for a total of roughly $172.4M. 15 CFO Michael Hodges sold 7,064 shares at $209–$213 on March 2, COO Matthew Rucker sold ~10,700 shares in January, and CLO Patrick Craine sold ~13,900 shares across two transactions. Zero open-market buys were recorded from any insider. 16
Insider selling by multiple senior officers, concentrated in a two-month window at prices 17–21% above today's level, is a signal worth taking seriously. It does not mechanically invalidate the bull thesis — officers sell for many reasons — but it raises the question of why no insiders are buying at current prices after a 19% YTD decline.
Debt-funded buybacks at risk in a downcycle (MEDIUM). Gulfport's current capital allocation strategy funds buybacks in excess of free cash flow by borrowing. In a high-gas-price environment, this is accretive: the company retires cheap-relative-to-earnings equity. In a downcycle, the math inverts — lower OCF, higher debt servicing cost, and fewer shares available to reduce. The 6.75% coupon on $650M of 2029 senior notes is a fixed cost that does not fall with gas prices. 7
New CEO strategic uncertainty (MEDIUM). Domenic Dell'Osso formally took over on May 28, 2026. He has not yet presented an updated capital allocation strategy, production growth targets, or any formal investor communication beyond the routine Q1 earnings materials prepared under the prior leadership structure. His track record at Expand Energy is genuinely relevant — that company became a buyback-focused, capital-efficient operator under his tenure. But there is no Gulfport-specific strategic statement to evaluate yet. Until he presents one, the current capital allocation trajectory (heavy buybacks, modest production growth, selective acreage bolt-ons) is assumed to continue.
Price action, analyst consensus, and what to watch
GPOR closed at $168.06 on June 5, 2026, down 1.75% on the day, 19.20% year-to-date, and 11.80% over the trailing 52 weeks. The 52-week range is $160.95–$225.78, and the stock is 4.42% above its 52-week low. The 50-day moving average is $188.63 and the 200-day moving average is $192.40 — both well above the current price. RSI (14-day) is at 33.04, in approaching-oversold territory. Average daily volume over the trailing 20 days is approximately 287,000–329,000 shares (range across sources). Beta is 0.40 — unusually low volatility for an E&P, reflecting the company's relatively small float and concentrated ownership. 12
Thirteen analysts cover GPOR. The consensus is Buy: 7 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. 17 The average 12-month price target is $242, with a range of $212–$272, implying approximately 44% upside from the June 5 close. Analyst consensus targets carry a systematic upward bias and should be read as directional indicators, not precise forecasts.
Recent rating moves: Mizuho (analyst Nitin Kumar) upgraded GPOR from Neutral to Outperform on May 27, 2026, with a target of $252, citing improved natural gas market fundamentals and Gulfport's FCF generation capacity. 17 KeyBanc maintained a Buy rating on June 4, 2026, with a $230 target. Wolfe Research downgraded to Peer Perform in January 2026 — the only bearish rating action in recent months.
Three data points to verify the thesis:
- Q2 2026 earnings (~August 2026): Henry Hub summer prices will determine whether realized revenue holds above $350M per quarter or reverts toward the pre-recovery baseline. FCF trajectory vs. the $406.8M remaining buyback authorization will show whether the capital return program is sustainable at current gas prices.
- Henry Hub summer strip vs. actuals: Watch whether July–October 2026 spot prices track the current $3.23–$3.29 futures strip, or whether LNG-driven demand tightens the market ahead of schedule.
- New CEO investor communication: A formal capital allocation strategy from Dell'Osso — particularly any change to the debt-funded buyback approach — would resolve the single largest strategic unknown in the current thesis.
Bottom line
GPOR passes all four hard filters with substantial margin: TTM revenue growth +90.73% (vs. 30% floor), PEG 0.26 (vs. 1.0 ceiling), TTM OCF $918.83M, and $3.02B market cap under the $10B cap. 15
The bull case is a structural one: LNG export capacity additions in 2026–2027 represent 6.3 Bcf/day of incremental demand on a market currently producing ~105 Bcf/day — about 6% of total US supply. If that demand materializes on schedule, the supply-demand balance that drove Henry Hub above $4 through winter 2025/26 should persist through 2027, keeping Gulfport's realized prices and cash flows elevated well above their 2024 trough. At 5.6× trailing earnings with a buyback program retiring 4–5% of the float annually, the valuation math is compelling under that scenario.
The bear case is equally structural: natural gas is a commodity with a history of price volatility that overwhelms any single company's operational execution. Gulfport's own FY2024 (-46.52% revenue) is the proof. A return to sub-$3 gas prices would compress OCF, make the debt-funded buyback strategy untenable, and likely push the stock back toward book value of ~$100. The concentrated insider selling at $200+ is a concrete data point suggesting at least some informed holders believe current prices are closer to the ceiling than the floor.
This is pass #13 in the channel's daily screen. Previous picks have covered specialty pharma (ANIP), marketing data (ZETA), education payments (FLYW), neobanking (DAVE), specialty insurance (ASIC), mortgage tech (FIGR), bill payments (PAY), marketing SaaS (KVYO), semiconductors (MXL), consumer lending (TREE), emerging-market payments (DLO), and drug delivery royalties (HALO).
Cover image: AI-generated editorial card.
References
- 1Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Statistics & Valuation
stockanalysis.com
- 2
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- 4Gulfport Energy Q1 2026 8-K Filing
stocktitan.net
- 5Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Revenue 2005-2026
stockanalysis.com
- 6Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Financials & Income Statement
stockanalysis.com
- 7Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Cash Flow Statement
stockanalysis.com
- 8Range Resources (RRC) Statistics & Valuation
stockanalysis.com
- 9Antero Resources (AR) Statistics & Valuation
stockanalysis.com
- 10EQT Corporation (EQT) Statistics & Valuation
stockanalysis.com
- 11
- 12Haynesville Gas Prices and Fundamentals Report
aegis-hedging.com
- 13EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: June 4, 2026
indexbox.io
- 14
- 15Gulfport Energy Corp (GPOR) Insider Trading Activity
insiderscreener.com
- 16Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) Recent Insider Transactions
finance.yahoo.com
- 17Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets
stockanalysis.com
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