2026-08-13 09:00 纳指ETF事件流（12条）

[ { "event_id": "Trimble-NASDAQ-20260812-q2-fy26-guidance", "title": "Trimble 给出 FY26 营收 39 亿至 39.5 亿美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T07:01:35Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T07:01:35Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "TRMB", "quarter": "Q2 2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 972.0, "unit": "million", "yoy_change_percent": 11, "organic_yoy_change_percent": 10}, "annualized_recurring_revenue": {"current": 2.51, "unit": "billion", "yoy_change_percent": 14, "organic_yoy_change_percent": 12}, "gaap_net_loss": {"current": 471.7, "unit": "million", "goodwill_impairment": 562.0, "goodwill_impairment_unit": "million"}, "fy2026_revenue_guidance": {"low": 3900, "high": 3950, "unit": "million"}, "fy2026_gaap_eps_guidance": {"low": -0.12, "high": -0.07, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "fy2026_non_gaap_eps_guidance": {"low": 3.60, "high": 3.70, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "q3_2026_revenue_guidance": {"low": 953, "high": 978, "unit": "million"}, "share_repurchase_authorization": {"current": 1.0, "unit": "billion"} }, "transmission_chain": "营收与经常性收入双位数增长并上调全年指引→企业软件与数字化支出预期改善→纳指软件和工业科技估值获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续营收低于 39.0 亿美元指引下限、ARR 增速显著放缓，或商誉减值继续扩大时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474926000106/a2026q2-8kex991_00version.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474926000106/a2026q2-8kex991_00version.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474926000106/a2026q2-8kex991_00version.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474926000106/a2026q2-8kex991_00version.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "BLS-NASDAQ-20260812-july-cpi", "title": "美国 7 月 CPI 同比降至 3.4%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_type": "macro_release", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "release_id": "USDL-26-1378", "reference_month": "2026-07", "index_base": "1982-84=100", "cpi_u_index": {"current": 333.918, "unit": "index_points", "seasonally_adjusted": false}, "cpi_u_mom": {"current": 0.1, "previous": -0.4, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "cpi_u_yoy": {"current": 3.4, "previous": 3.5, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": false}, "core_cpi_mom": {"current": 0.2, "previous": 0.0, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "core_cpi_yoy": {"current": 2.5, "previous": 2.6, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": false}, "shelter_mom": {"current": 0.1, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "energy_mom": {"current": -1.5, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "gasoline_mom": {"current": -2.9, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "food_mom": {"current": 0.1, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true} }, "transmission_chain": "整体与核心 CPI 同比均较前值回落→加息压力与长期贴现率预期下降→高久期纳指资产获得估值支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续核心 CPI 重新加速、PPI 或 PCE 显著高于该降温路径，或美联储维持更鹰派利率指引时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "BLS-NASDAQ-20260812-july-real-earnings", "title": "美国 7 月实际时薪环比下降 0.1%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:30:00Z", "event_type": "macro_release", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": -1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "release_id": "USDL-26-1379", "reference_month": "2026-07", "all_employees_real_average_hourly_earnings_mom": {"current": -0.1, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "all_employees_real_average_hourly_earnings_yoy": {"current": -0.2, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "all_employees_real_average_weekly_earnings_mom": {"current": 0.0, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "all_employees_real_average_weekly_earnings_yoy": {"current": 0.1, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "production_nonsupervisory_real_hourly_earnings_mom": {"current": 0.0, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true}, "production_nonsupervisory_real_weekly_earnings_mom": {"current": 0.1, "unit": "percent", "seasonally_adjusted": true} }, "transmission_chain": "实际时薪环比与同比下降→居民实际购买力和可选消费增量偏弱→纳指消费互联网及硬件需求预期承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续实际时薪转正、周工时或消费支出明显回升，且企业收入未受需求放缓影响时，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-NASDAQ-20260812-september-rate-odds", "title": "9 月加息概率由 48.4%降至 38%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T12:39:44Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T12:39:44Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "Reuters", "fed_meeting_dates": "2026-09-15/2026-09-16", "rate_hike_probability": {"current": 38.0, "previous": 48.4, "unit": "percent"}, "federal_funds_target_range": {"low": 3.50, "high": 3.75, "unit": "percent"}, "july_fomc_vote": {"hold_votes": 9, "hike_dissents": 3, "unit": "votes"}, "cpi_u_mom": {"current": 0.1, "previous": -0.4, "unit": "percent"}, "cpi_u_yoy": {"current": 3.4, "previous": 3.5, "unit": "percent"} }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率下降 10.4 个百分点→预期政策利率路径下移→纳指成长股贴现率压力减轻。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 PPI、PCE 或就业数据推高 9 月加息概率至 48.4%以上，或美联储官员明确强化加息信号时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-increase-expected-july-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-increase-expected-july-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-increase-expected-july-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-increase-expected-july-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Intel-NASDAQ-20260812-equity-offering", "title": "Intel 普通股发行总毛额约 230 亿美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:05:07Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:05:07Z", "event_type": "fund_flow", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 0}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K", "ticker": "INTC", "unit_currency": "USD", "initial_offering_size": {"value": 15, "unit": "billion"}, "upsized_offering_size": {"value": 20, "unit": "billion"}, "base_shares_offered": {"value": 210526315, "unit": "shares"}, "public_offering_price": {"value": 95.00, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "overallotment_shares": {"value": 31578947, "unit": "shares", "exercise_status": "fully_exercised_on_2026-08-11"}, "total_shares_including_overallotment": {"value": 242105262, "unit": "shares"}, "gross_proceeds_including_overallotment": {"value": 23.0, "unit": "billion", "qualifier": "approximately"}, "base_net_proceeds": {"value": 19.7, "unit": "billion", "overallotment_excluded": true}, "use_of_proceeds": ["capital_expenditures", "working_capital", "general_corporate_purposes"] }, "transmission_chain": "约 230 亿美元新股融资→资本开支能力增强但每股权益被摊薄→纳指半导体链的产能预期与估值压力相互抵消。", "invalidation_conditions": "若新增资本未转化为产能和收入、后续继续大规模稀释，偏中性判断转空；若资本开支快速形成 AI 芯片收入且回报率改善，偏中性判断转多。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670d8k.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670d8k.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670d8k.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670d8k.htm))", "[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670dex992.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670dex992.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670dex992.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000119312526346806/d117670dex992.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Cisco-NASDAQ-20260812-fy27-ai-guidance", "title": "Cisco 预计 FY27 AI 收入达 75 亿美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:07:06Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:07:06Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "CSCO", "quarter": "Q4 FY2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 17.3, "unit": "billion", "yoy_change_percent": 18}, "quarterly_gaap_eps": {"current": 0.97, "previous": 0.64, "unit": "dollars_per_share", "yoy_change_percent": 52}, "quarterly_non_gaap_eps": {"current": 1.22, "unit": "dollars_per_share", "yoy_change_percent": 23}, "q1_fy2027_revenue_guidance": {"low": 18.0, "high": 18.2, "unit": "billion"}, "fy2027_revenue_guidance": {"low": 72.2, "high": 73.4, "unit": "billion"}, "fy2027_non_gaap_eps_guidance": {"low": 5.05, "high": 5.11, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "ai_infrastructure_orders": {"q4_current": 4.0, "fy2026_total": 9.3, "unit": "billion"}, "ai_infrastructure_revenue": {"fy2026": 4.0, "fy2027_guidance": 7.5, "unit": "billion"}, "networking_product_orders_yoy": {"current": 40, "unit": "percent"} }, "transmission_chain": "AI 基础设施订单累计 93 亿美元且 FY27 收入指引 75 亿美元→云厂商网络资本开支需求得到一手验证→纳指网络、芯片和 AI 基础设施估值获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 AI 订单取消、FY27 AI 收入低于 75 亿美元，或网络产品订单增速跌出双位数时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/csco-20260812.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/csco-20260812.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/csco-20260812.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/csco-20260812.htm))", "[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000106/exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Cerebras-NASDAQ-20260812-q2-fy26-guidance", "title": "Cerebras 云收入同比增长 287%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:09:19Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:09:19Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "CBRS", "quarter": "Q2 2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "gaap_revenue": {"current": 180.1, "unit": "million", "yoy_change_percent": 74}, "core_revenue": {"current": 209.9, "previous": 103.3, "unit": "million", "yoy_change_percent": 103}, "core_cloud_revenue": {"current": 127.7, "previous": 33.0, "unit": "million", "yoy_change_percent": 287}, "core_gross_margin": {"current": 41, "yoy_change_bp": 940, "unit": "percent"}, "remaining_performance_obligations": {"current": 25.4, "unit": "billion"}, "q3_2026_core_revenue_guidance": {"low": 214, "high": 216, "unit": "million"}, "q3_2026_core_gross_margin_guidance": {"low": 38, "high": 40, "unit": "percent"}, "fy2026_core_revenue_guidance": {"low": 880, "high": 890, "unit": "million", "revision": "raised"}, "fy2026_core_gross_margin_guidance": {"low": 41, "high": 43, "unit": "percent", "revision": "raised"}, "contracted_data_center_capacity_by_2027_end": {"value": 600, "unit": "megawatts", "qualifier": "more_than"} }, "transmission_chain": "核心云收入增长 287%并上调全年指引→高速 AI 推理需求与算力部署扩张得到验证→纳指 AI 芯片和云基础设施链条获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续核心收入低于 2.14 亿美元季度指引下限、毛利率跌破 38%，或已签数据中心容量延迟部署时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrs-20260812.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrs-20260812.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrs-20260812.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrs-20260812.htm))", "[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Harmonic-NASDAQ-20260812-q2-broadband-guidance", "title": "Harmonic 宽带收入同比增长 54%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:09:22Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:09:22Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "HLIT", "quarter": "Q2 2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "total_revenue": {"current": 173.0, "unit": "million"}, "broadband_revenue": {"current": 133.5, "unit": "million", "yoy_change_percent": 54}, "rest_of_market_broadband_yoy_change": {"current": 44, "unit": "percent"}, "gaap_operating_income": {"current": 18.4, "unit": "million"}, "non_gaap_operating_income": {"current": 35.6, "unit": "million"}, "gaap_eps": {"current": -0.02, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "non_gaap_eps": {"current": 0.24, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "fy2026_broadband_revenue_guidance": {"low": 505, "high": 525, "unit": "million", "revision": "raised"}, "cash_after_video_business_sale": {"current": 232, "unit": "million"} }, "transmission_chain": "宽带收入增长 54%并再次上调全年指引→运营商网络升级支出保持强劲→纳指通信设备与边缘计算需求预期改善。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续宽带收入低于 5.05 亿美元全年指引下限、非核心客户增速明显放缓，或出售业务后的现金未转化为增长时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851310/000119312526346853/hlit-ex99_1.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851310/000119312526346853/hlit-ex99_1.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851310/000119312526346853/hlit-ex99_1.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851310/000119312526346853/hlit-ex99_1.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Coherent-NASDAQ-20260812-q4-optical-results", "title": "Coherent 季度营收同比增长 34%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:10:13Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:10:13Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "COHR", "listing_exchange": "NYSE", "routing_theme": "AI_optical_interconnect", "quarter": "Q4 FY2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 2.05, "unit": "billion", "reported_yoy_change_percent": 34, "pro_forma_yoy_change_percent": 42}, "gaap_gross_margin": {"current": 38.5, "yoy_change_bp": 277, "unit": "percent"}, "non_gaap_gross_margin": {"current": 40.2, "yoy_change_bp": 215, "unit": "percent"}, "gaap_eps": {"current": 1.19, "yoy_change_dollars_per_share": 2.02, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, "non_gaap_eps": {"current": 1.74, "yoy_change_dollars_per_share": 0.74, "unit": "dollars_per_share"} }, "transmission_chain": "营收增长 34%且毛利率提升→AI 数据中心从铜互联转向光互联的需求增强→纳指光模块、交换机与 AI 算力链估值获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续光互联订单放缓、毛利率回落至上年水平，或数据中心光学需求未形成持续收入时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "AOSL-NASDAQ-20260812-q4-ai-server-outlook", "title": "AOSL 预计下季营收 1.66 亿至 1.86 亿美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:11:41Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:11:41Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "AOSL", "quarter": "Q4 FY2026", "unit_currency": "USD", "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 170.4, "previous_quarter": 163.8, "year_ago_quarter": 176.5, "unit": "million", "qoq_change_percent": 4.0, "yoy_change_percent": -3.5}, "gaap_gross_margin": {"current": 23.1, "previous_quarter": 21.1, "year_ago_quarter": 23.4, "unit": "percent"}, "non_gaap_gross_margin": {"current": 23.7, "previous_quarter": 21.7, "year_ago_quarter": 24.4, "unit": "percent"}, "gaap_net_loss_per_share": {"current": -0.43, "previous_quarter": -0.46, "year_ago_quarter": -2.58, "unit": "dollars_per_share"}, 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["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1387467/000162828026056197/exhibit991earningreleaseju.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1387467/000162828026056197/exhibit991earningreleaseju.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1387467/000162828026056197/exhibit991earningreleaseju.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1387467/000162828026056197/exhibit991earningreleaseju.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "U.S.Treasury-NASDAQ-20260812-nominal-yield-curve", "title": "美债 10 年期收益率日降 2 个基点", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T20:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T20:30:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates", "data_date": "2026-08-12", "comparison_date": "2026-08-11", "unit": "percent_per_annum", "nominal_3m": {"current": 3.87, "previous": 3.89, "change_bp": -2}, "nominal_1y": {"current": 4.00, "previous": 4.03, "change_bp": -3}, "nominal_2y": {"current": 4.20, "previous": 4.22, "change_bp": -2}, "nominal_5y": {"current": 4.38, "previous": 4.39, "change_bp": -1}, "nominal_10y": {"current": 4.68, "previous": 4.70, "change_bp": -2}, "nominal_20y": {"current": 5.24, "previous": 5.25, "change_bp": -1}, "nominal_30y": {"current": 5.24, "previous": 5.24, "change_bp": 0}, "standard_publication_time": "4:30 p.m. ET" }, "transmission_chain": "2Y 与 10Y 名义收益率均下降 2 个基点→政策与长期贴现率边际回落→纳指高久期资产估值压力减轻。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 2Y 或 10Y 收益率回升并高于 8 月 11 日水平，或通胀预期推动长端再创新高时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "U.S.Treasury-NASDAQ-20260812-real-yield-curve", "title": "美债 10 年期实际收益率日降 1 个基点", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T20:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T20:30:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates", "data_date": "2026-08-12", "comparison_date": "2026-08-11", "unit": "percent_per_annum", "real_yield_5y": {"current": 2.14, "previous": 2.16, "change_bp": -2}, "real_yield_7y": {"current": 2.26, "previous": 2.28, "change_bp": -2}, "real_yield_10y": {"current": 2.42, "previous": 2.43, "change_bp": -1}, "real_yield_20y": {"current": 2.78, "previous": 2.79, "change_bp": -1}, "real_yield_30y": {"current": 2.99, "previous": 3.00, "change_bp": -1}, "standard_publication_time": "4:30 p.m. ET" }, "transmission_chain": "5Y 至 30Y 实际收益率全线下降 1 至 2 个基点→真实资金成本与远期现金流折现率回落→纳指成长股估值获得支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续实际收益率回升至 8 月 11 日水平以上，或通胀风险溢价重新抬升时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"], "source_tier": "A" } ]