截至2026年8月20日15时：3条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-zhangjiagang-dafu-basis-update", "title": "张家港达孚豆粕远月基差报 M2701+20 等条款", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T06:01:32Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "张家港", "producer": "张家港达孚油厂", "product": "豆粕基差报价", "quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "2026-08-20_to_2026-08-31_delivery": "M2609-60", "by_2026-09-15_delivery": "M2609-30", "2026-09_delivery": "M2609+0", "2026-10_to_2027-01_delivery": "M2701+20" }, "limited_supply_quote": "2026-10 至 2027-01 提货的 M2701+20 为限量报价", "2027-05_to_2027-07_delivery": "M2705+0", "unit": "元/吨", "comparison_basis": "原文表述 8 月 20 日基差报价保持稳定；页面未给出上一报价的逐项数值对比" }, "transmission_chain": "张家港达孚近月至远月基差报价维持在 M2609-60 至 M2705+0 的结构，远月 M2701+20 为限量条款；基差结构稳定意味着现货相对期货的定价信号暂未新增方向，豆粕 ETF 短线方向仍需现货价格或期货价格变化确认。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "张家港达孚任一交货期基差报价发生调整", "豆粕期货合约价格变化使现有基差结构对应的绝对现货价格明显偏离", "M2701+20 限量条款取消或供应条件改变" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/3CDE53E3368672DB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/3CDE53E3368672DB_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/3CDE53E3368672DB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/3CDE53E3368672DB_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-shanghai-dongchen-spot-update", "title": "上海东辰 43%豆粕现货报价上调至 3130 至 3170 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T06:02:03Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "上海", "producer": "上海东辰油厂", "product": "43±0.5%蛋白豆粕现货", "package_quotes_yuan_per_ton": { "70_kg_fixed_weight_package": "3160 至 3130", "50_kg_fixed_weight_package": "3170 至 3140" }, "delivery_period": "2026-08-26 至 2026-09-04，需均衡提完", "quote_validity": "2026-08-20 14:50 前有效，限量供应，随盘调价", "comparison_basis": "原文表述现货报价上调，但未披露调整前绝对报价和涨幅", "unit": "元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": "上海东辰 43±0.5%蛋白豆粕现货报价上调，70 公斤定量包报 3160 至 3130 元/吨、50 公斤定量包报 3170 至 3140 元/吨；华东现货报价上移先改善豆粕 ETF 的短线现货支撑，但报价限量且随盘调价，持续性要看后续成交和区域报价是否跟随。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "上海东辰在有效期内回调本次上调后的报价", "后续华东现货成交价格持续低于该报价区间", "限量供应或随盘调价导致报价无法代表区域主流现货" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/1A948CA51138F5A5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/1A948CA51138F5A5_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/1A948CA51138F5A5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/1A948CA51138F5A5_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260820-aks-cotton-soy-gap-update", "title": "新疆阿克苏豆粕与棉粕价差扩大至 920 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T06:12:35Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "region": "新疆阿克苏", "comparison_products": { "cotton_meal_protein": "46%", "soymeal_protein": "43%" }, "cotton_meal_price_yuan_per_ton": 2540, "soymeal_price_yuan_per_ton": 3460, "cotton_soy_price_gap_yuan_per_ton": 920, "historical_comparison": { "gap_on_2026-08-08": 790, "gap_change_yuan_per_ton": 130, "soymeal_price_on_2026-08-12_yuan_per_ton": 3340, "soymeal_price_change_from_2026-08-12_yuan_per_ton": 120, "cotton_meal_recent_range_yuan_per_ton": "2540 至 2550" }, "comparison_basis": "价差由近期数据中的 790 元/吨扩大至 920 元/吨；豆粕价格由 8 月 12 日的 3340 元/吨升至 3460 元/吨，棉粕价格维持在 2540 至 2550 元/吨区间", "unit": "元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": "新疆阿克苏豆粕价格升至 3460 元/吨，而 46%棉粕为 2540 元/吨，豆粕与棉粕价差扩大至 920 元/吨；豆粕价格上行直接提供现货支撑，同时相对替代蛋白变贵可能削弱部分饲料配方的豆粕使用意愿，两个方向需要分开观察。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "新疆阿克苏豆粕价格回落并收窄与棉粕的价差", "棉粕价格上行使替代蛋白价差重新收窄", "饲料配方或区域采购变化使该价差不再反映实际替代关系" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/E9B223146BBB6E80_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/E9B223146BBB6E80_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/E9B223146BBB6E80_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082014/E9B223146BBB6E80_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]