近30天半导体ETF回填：10条业绩、资本开支与管制事实

[
  {
    "event_id": "BIS-UAE-AI-CHIPS-20260710",
    "title": "BIS：阿联酋获准无许可接收AI芯片与服务器",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "export_control",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 1},
    "confidence": 93,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "country_group": {
        "actual": "BIS将阿联酋移出EAR Country Groups D:3和D:4，并重新归类为A:5",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "阿联酋此前属于EAR Country Groups D:3和D:4"
      },
      "advanced_computing": {
        "actual": "美国商务部批准阿联酋政府及特定公司在阿联酋无许可证接收先进计算物项，包括AI芯片和服务器",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "legal_scope": {
        "actual": "相关规则涉及EAR 15 CFR parts 730-774及License Exception Strategic Trade Authorization",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "阿联酋特定主体获得AI芯片和服务器的无许可证接收资格 → 美国先进计算产品对阿联酋数据中心的合规交付路径缩短，潜在AI基础设施部署范围扩大 → GPU、先进逻辑、存储和服务器相关需求预期获得边际支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "BIS实施规则被撤回，或后续解释收窄AI芯片和服务器的无许可证范围。",
      "阿联酋承诺的美国AI数字基础设施匹配投资未落地，或出现敏感技术转移和再出口违规。",
      "后续出口管制公告重新提高阿联酋先进计算物项许可要求。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-eases-export-controls-uae"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "TSMC-Q2-GUIDANCE-20260716",
    "title": "台积电Q2营收1270.38bn新台币，净利706.56bn",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 2},
    "confidence": 96,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_revenue_ntd_billion": {
        "actual": "1,270.38",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "1,134.10（1Q26）；933.79（2Q25）"
      },
      "q2_2026_net_income_ntd_billion": {
        "actual": "706.56",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "572.48（1Q26）；398.27（2Q25）"
      },
      "q2_2026_usd_revenue": {
        "actual": "40.20 billion",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "35.90 billion（2Q25）"
      },
      "q3_2026_guidance_usd_billion": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_guidance": "44.6-45.8"
      },
      "fy2026_revenue_growth": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_guidance": "slightly above 40% in US dollar terms"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "台积电Q2营收1,270.38 billion新台币、净利润706.56 billion新台币，且Q3营收指引为44.6-45.8 billion美元、2026年美元营收增长预计略高于40% → 先进逻辑和高性能计算订单的已实现收入与近端指引得到验证 → 晶圆代工、先进制程、封装和相关设备材料的盈利预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "台积电后续正式下调Q3营收指引或2026年美元营收增长指引。",
      "后续季度披露高性能计算需求、先进制程出货或利润率明显低于本次指引。",
      "出口管制或客户取消订单抵消本次业绩信号。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/0e4d9625c9ef46521afd54002f835e45a9035043/2Q26%20Presentation%20%28E%29.pdf"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "TSMC-CAPEX-20260716",
    "title": "台积电将2026年资本预算上调至600-640亿美元",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 2},
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "fy2026_capital_budget_usd_billion": {
        "actual": "60-64",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "52-56"
      },
      "allocation": {
        "actual": "70%-80%投向先进制程，约10%投向特色工艺，约10%-20%投向先进封装、测试、光罩及其他项目",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "q2_2026_capex_usd_billion": {
        "actual": "15.7",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "台积电将2026年资本预算从52-56 billion美元上调至60-64 billion美元，且70%-80%投向先进制程 → 先进逻辑和AI加速器相关晶圆、设备及先进封装产能扩张预期上修 → 半导体制造链订单与资本开支预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "台积电后续下调60-64 billion美元资本预算，或延后先进制程产能建设。",
      "后续披露资本开支未转化为晶圆出货、订单或盈利增长。",
      "出口管制、供应链约束或客户需求转弱导致项目取消。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/547d1696765e05ce3adb81c108ce1c8c1682b80c/TSMC%202Q26%20Transcript.pdf"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "TSMC-ARIZONA-20260716",
    "title": "台积电宣布追加1000亿美元投资亚利桑那州",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 1},
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "additional_arizona_investment_usd": {
        "actual": "100 billion",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "planned_capacity": {
        "actual": "建设数座采用2-nanometer及以下技术的逻辑晶圆厂，以及先进封装厂",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "台积电宣布在亚利桑那州追加100 billion美元，建设2-nanometer及以下逻辑晶圆厂和先进封装厂 → 美国先进制程与封装产能的多年期投资可见度提高 → 光刻、刻蚀、沉积、封装和测试设备需求预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "台积电后续取消、缩减或显著推迟该追加投资。",
      "亚利桑那项目无法获得许可、建设进度或客户导入确认。",
      "先进制程需求转弱，导致新建晶圆厂和先进封装厂的利用率预期下降。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/547d1696765e05ce3adb81c108ce1c8c1682b80c/TSMC%202Q26%20Transcript.pdf"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "ASML-Q2-OUTLOOK-20260715",
    "title": "ASML Q2净销售额93.26亿欧元，上调全年指引",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-15T05:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-15T05:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 2},
    "confidence": 97,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_net_sales_eur_million": {
        "actual": "9,326",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "8,767（Q1 2026）"
      },
      "q2_2026_gross_margin": {
        "actual": "54.0%",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "53.0%（Q1 2026）"
      },
      "q2_2026_net_income_eur_million": {
        "actual": "2,918",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "2,757（Q1 2026）"
      },
      "fy2026_guidance": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_guidance": "2026年总净销售额43-45 billion欧元，毛利率54%-56%"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "ASML Q2净销售额9,326 million欧元、毛利率54.0%、净利润2,918 million欧元，并将2026年总净销售额指引上调至43-45 billion欧元 → 先进逻辑与存储设备订单及客户扩产的可见度提高 → 光刻和晶圆制造设备产业链盈利预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "ASML后续下调2026年43-45 billion欧元销售额或54%-56%毛利率指引。",
      "订单取消、出口限制或客户扩产推迟导致新设备出货低于指引。",
      "后续季度数据显示AI相关先进逻辑和存储需求未延续。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "ASML-CAPACITY-20260715",
    "title": "ASML计划2027年低NA EUV与浸润式DUV产能增30%",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-15T05:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-15T05:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "capex",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 1},
    "confidence": 94,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "low_na_euv_capacity": {
        "actual": "计划在2026年约65台的基础上，2027年增加30%",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "2026年约65台"
      },
      "duv_immersion_capacity": {
        "actual": "计划在2026年约130台的基础上，2027年增加30%",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "2026年约130台"
      },
      "2028_plan": {
        "actual": "正在研究2028年再增加30%产能",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "ASML计划将2027年低NA EUV和浸润式DUV产能分别在2026年约65台和约130台的基础上增加30% → 先进制程设备供给和晶圆厂扩产的中期可见度提高 → 晶圆制造设备、零部件与材料需求预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "ASML后续取消或下调2027年低NA EUV、浸润式DUV产能计划。",
      "客户订单、供应链或出口许可不足以支持新增设备产能。",
      "先进逻辑或存储扩产计划明显推迟。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "ASML-HIGH-NA-20260715",
    "title": "ASML称英特尔已用High NA EUV量产18A产品",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-15T05:30:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "exact",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-15T05:30:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 1},
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "production_milestone": {
        "actual": "Intel Foundry已使用ASML High NA EUV技术，对Intel 18A节点的部分Core Ultra Series 3（Panther Lake）处理器进入高量逻辑产品制造",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "qualification": {
        "actual": "俄勒冈州特定Intel 18A产品层已在High NA EUV上完成双重认证，产品以与NXE平台匹配的良率向客户出货",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "2024年Intel与ASML完成首台商用High NA EUV光刻系统集成"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "Intel Foundry宣布使用High NA EUV生产部分Intel 18A高量逻辑产品，且俄勒冈州特定产品层完成双重认证并以匹配NXE平台的良率出货 → High NA EUV从设备验证推进到先进逻辑量产应用 → 先进光刻设备、晶圆制造和相关供应链的导入预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "Intel后续取消该High NA EUV产品层的量产或认证状态。",
      "产品良率、产能或客户出货无法持续，导致High NA EUV未扩展到更多节点。",
      "先进逻辑客户推迟High NA EUV导入。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/high-na-euv-reaches-new-readiness-milestone"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SEMI-EQUIPMENT-FORECAST-20260714",
    "title": "SEMI预计2026年半导体设备销售额1659亿美元",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 2},
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "total_equipment_forecast": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_forecast": "2026年165.9 billion美元，同比+23.2%；2028年229.5 billion美元"
      },
      "segment_forecast_2026": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_forecast": "晶圆制造设备143.9 billion美元，同比+23.1%；测试设备15.3 billion美元，同比+31.0%；组装和封装设备6.7 billion美元，同比+9.6%"
      },
      "memory_equipment_forecast_2026": {
        "actual": "「原文未披露」",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」",
        "company_forecast": "DRAM设备38.8 billion美元，同比+39.0%；NAND设备13.9 billion美元，同比+30.7%"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "SEMI预计2026年全球半导体制造设备销售额165.9 billion美元、同比增长23.2%，其中晶圆制造设备143.9 billion美元、DRAM设备38.8 billion美元、测试设备15.3 billion美元 → AI、HBM、先进逻辑和先进封装带来的设备投资增量被量化 → 半导体设备、存储、晶圆制造和测试环节的中期订单预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "SEMI后续下修165.9 billion美元总设备销售额或关键细分预测。",
      "晶圆厂资本开支、HBM投资或AI基础设施投资低于预测。",
      "出口管制、设备交付约束或客户取消订单削弱设备销售兑现。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/global-semiconductor-equipment-sales-forecast-to-reach-a-record-229-billion-dollars-in-2028-semi-reports"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SEMI-SILICON-WAFER-20260729",
    "title": "SEMI：Q2全球硅片出货3573百万平方英寸",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "industry_data",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 1},
    "confidence": 95,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_shipments_msi": {
        "actual": "3,573 million square inches（MSI）",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "3,275 MSI（Q1 2026）；3,327 MSI（Q2 2025）"
      },
      "change": {
        "actual": "同比+7.4%，环比+9.1%",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "demand_comment": {
        "actual": "SEMI SMG称AI相关需求已从先进逻辑和存储扩展到功率器件、光电子及其他市场；工业和汽车需求正在恢复",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "2026年第二季度全球硅片出货量达到3,573 MSI，同比+7.4%、环比+9.1% → 晶圆制造投入与终端芯片生产的基础材料需求维持增长，且需求范围扩展到功率器件和光电子 → 半导体制造链产能利用与材料需求预期获得支持 → SEMICONDUCTOR价格方向偏正。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "SEMI后续修订2026年第二季度出货量或同比、环比增速。",
      "下一期硅片出货量转为同比或环比下降，且下降来自AI、先进逻辑或存储需求转弱。",
      "存储价格压力持续压制PC和智能手机相关硅片需求，并扩散至其他应用。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/semi-reports-worldwide-silicon-wafer-shipments-increase-7.4-percent-year-on-year-in-q2-2026"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "SMIC-Q2-SCHEDULE-20260731",
    "title": "中芯国际将于8月13日盘后披露Q2业绩",
    "event_time_utc": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["SEMICONDUCTOR"],
    "direction_score": {"SEMICONDUCTOR": 0},
    "confidence": 98,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "q2_2026_results_disclosure": {
        "actual": "中芯国际将于2026年8月13日交易时段后披露2026年第二季度业绩",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "earnings_call": {
        "actual": "2026年8月14日上午8:30-9:30举行2026年第二季度业绩说明会",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      },
      "announcement": {
        "actual": "公告编号2026-031",
        "consensus": "「原文未披露」",
        "prior": "「原文未披露」"
      }
    },
    "transmission_chain": "中芯国际确认2026年8月13日交易时段后披露Q2业绩，并于8月14日8:30-9:30举行说明会 → 该披露将成为观察中国晶圆代工收入、产能利用率、资本开支和先进制程进展的下一硬信息节点 → 在结果披露前仅提高事件时点确定性，不预设SEMICONDUCTOR方向。",
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "中芯国际公告变更2026年8月13日业绩披露日期或取消8月14日说明会。",
      "公司提前披露完整业绩，导致本次时间点不再是下一硬信息节点。",
      "说明会不再披露可验证的收入、产能利用率或资本开支数据。"
    ],
    "source_urls": [
      "http://dataclouds.cninfo.com.cn/shgonggao/hsomarket/2026/20260730/610cab31af854824950f35f8b8fb8690.PDF"
    ],
    "source_tier": "A"
  }
]