2026年8月12日09时：8条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260811-soybean-china-sale", "title": "美国私营出口商向中国销售 13.6 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "美国大豆对华销售量", "value": 136000, "unit": "metric tons", "period": "2026/27 营销年度交付", "comparison": "USDA 于 2026-08-11 新增公布；本次公告未提供前一公告的可比量" }, { "metric": "destination", "value": "China", "unit": "market", "period": "2026/27 营销年度" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "对华新季大豆销售新增 13.6 万吨→美国大豆出口需求预期边际改善→压低新季期末库存预期的可能性上升→SOYMEAL_ETF 短线偏多一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 或出口商修正本次销售数量或交付年度", "后续对华取消销售或周度出口数据未能延续增量" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260811-soybean-meal-philippines-sale", "title": "美国私营出口商向菲律宾销售 18 万吨豆粕", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "美国豆粕对菲销售量", "value": 180000, "unit": "metric tons", "period": "2026/27 营销年度交付", "comparison": "USDA 于 2026-08-11 新增公布；本次公告未提供前一公告的可比量" }, { "metric": "destination", "value": "Philippines", "unit": "market", "period": "2026/27 营销年度" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "对菲豆粕销售新增 18 万吨→美国豆粕出口需求预期边际改善→豆粕近远月需求端获得量化支撑→SOYMEAL_ETF 短线偏多一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 或出口商修正本次销售数量或交付年度", "后续豆粕出口销售明显走弱" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-philippines-0))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-weather-plains", "title": "美国西部与平原周内少雨且多地高温", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "weather", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "主要农业区气温", "value": "2 至 8°F 高于常年", "unit": "temperature anomaly", "period": "2026-08-03 至 2026-08-09；美国西南部、中部平原和东北部多地", "comparison": "USDA 公报将上述区域列为高于常年；北部平原和上密西西比河谷低于常年" }, { "metric": "美国西部与平原降水", "value": "低于常年", "unit": "precipitation anomaly", "period": "2026-08-03 至 2026-08-09", "comparison": "USDA 称西部与平原大部少雨，多个州仍报告表层土壤墒情明显不足" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "西部与平原高温少雨且墒情不足→结荚鼓粒阶段的局部单产风险上升→美豆供应预期的天气折价增加→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏多一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续降水明显恢复且土壤墒情改善", "USDA 修正本周气温或降水描述，或州级优良率持续回升" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset-illinois", "title": "伊利诺伊大豆结荚率升至 77%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 77, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09；伊利诺伊州", "comparison": "前一周 62%，去年同期 75%，五年均值 74%；周环比增加 15 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "伊利诺伊结荚率高于去年同期和五年均值→主产州产量形成进度偏快→局部供应预期偏宽→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续报告显示伊利诺伊优良率明显下修或结荚后遭遇极端天气", "USDA 修正州级结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset-north-dakota", "title": "北达科他大豆结荚率升至 74%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 74, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09；北达科他州", "comparison": "前一周 59%，去年同期 72%，五年均值 67%；周环比增加 15 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "北达科他结荚率高于去年同期和五年均值→产量形成进度偏快→供应预期的边际压力增加→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续报告显示北达科他结荚后优良率继续恶化并影响单产", "USDA 修正州级结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset-iowa", "title": "爱荷华大豆结荚率为 72%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 72, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09；爱荷华州", "comparison": "前一周 61%，去年同期 74%，五年均值 76%；周环比增加 11 个百分点，但低于去年同期 2 个百分点和五年均值 4 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "爱荷华结荚进度周环比加快但仍低于去年同期和五年均值→进度与产量风险信号相互抵消→SOYMEAL_ETF 暂定中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续报告显示爱荷华优良率或结荚进度持续偏离历史水平", "USDA 修正州级结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset-missouri", "title": "密苏里大豆结荚率升至 64%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 64, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09；密苏里州", "comparison": "前一周 51%，去年同期 58%，五年均值 56%；周环比增加 13 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "密苏里结荚率高于去年同期和五年均值→产量形成进度偏快→局部供应预期偏宽→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续报告显示密苏里优良率明显下修或结荚后出现异常高温干旱", "USDA 修正州级结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset-nebraska", "title": "内布拉斯加大豆结荚率升至 75%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 75, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09；内布拉斯加州", "comparison": "前一周 61%，去年同期 69%，五年均值 76%；周环比增加 14 个百分点，高于去年同期 6 个百分点但低于五年均值 1 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "内布拉斯加结荚进度高于去年同期但略低于五年均值→进度改善与历史均值偏差并存→单一州级信号不足以改变方向→SOYMEAL_ETF 暂定中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续报告显示内布拉斯加优良率持续下修或结荚后天气显著恶化", "USDA 修正州级结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796013/wwcb3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ]