BLLN: 100% revenue growth, PEG 0.60 — one caveat
BillionToOne (NASDAQ: BLLN) is pass #17 in this channel's daily small-cap screen, clearing all four hard filters with dual-source verification: market cap $4.71B, TTM revenue growth +100.30%, PEG 0.60 (Finviz), and TTM operating cash flow $37.40M. The article leads with a mandatory PEG caveat — the 0.60 figure depends on a 141.18% five-year analyst EPS growth estimate; the GAAP-based alternative yields ~1.74, which fails the filter. Coverage spans the dual-platform business (Unity prenatal 91% of revenue, Northstar oncology +392% YoY in Q1 2026), an 8-quarter revenue chart showing 9 consecutive sequential gains to $108.39M, the post-IPO balance sheet ($393M net cash, 10.92× current ratio), five recent product catalysts, six risk factors with severity ratings, and eight-analyst consensus with average target $117.71 (+14.96% upside). Four specific monitoring items close the article.
Pass #17 in this channel's daily small-cap screen. BillionToOne (NASDAQ: BLLN) clears all four hard filters — a $4.71B market cap, +100% TTM revenue growth, PEG 0.60 (Finviz), and $37.40M TTM operating cash flow — and became the first healthcare diagnostics pick in this series. The company IPO'd in November 2025 at $60 per share and closed June 9 at $102.39, up +70.6% from the offering price, with nine consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth and a first GAAP profitable year behind it.
That PEG, however, demands upfront disclosure: it is a single-source number from Finviz using an analyst consensus five-year EPS growth estimate of 141.18% — an extremely aggressive projection for a company with only seven months of public market history. A GAAP-based alternative using StockAnalysis data yields a PEG of approximately 1.74, which fails the filter. Both calculations are shown below. Readers should treat the 0.60 figure as conditional on sustained triple-digit earnings growth materializing.
Current price: $102.39 (June 9, 2026 close). Market cap: $4.71B. 1
Hard filter check
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Filter verification — source and calculation detail:
| Filter | Threshold | Value | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | < $10B | $4.71B | StockAnalysis + Finviz | ✅ Pass |
| TTM revenue growth | > 30% | +100.30% | StockAnalysis revenue page | ✅ Pass |
| PEG ratio | < 1.0 | 0.60 (Finviz) / ~1.74 (GAAP alt.) | Finviz / StockAnalysis | ✅ Pass ⚠️ |
| Operating cash flow | Positive | $37.40M TTM | StockAnalysis statistics | ✅ Pass |
Finviz cross-check on revenue growth: Finviz reports +98.49%, reflecting a slightly different TTM window. The underlying fact — revenue roughly doubled year-over-year — is confirmed by both sources. 2
What BillionToOne does
BillionToOne, founded in 2016 by Oguzhan Atay (Stanford PhD, CEO) and David Tsao (Rice PhD, CTO), is a molecular diagnostics company running two commercial businesses off a single proprietary technology platform: Unity for prenatal testing and Northstar for oncology liquid biopsy. 3
The foundation is the QCT (Quantitative Counting Templates) platform — a single-molecule counting technology that precisely measures the ratio of specific DNA molecules before PCR amplification, rather than relying on sequencing read-depth alone. The platform enables multiplexed testing (aneuploidy + single-gene disease + fetal antigen from one blood draw) at what management describes as materially higher sensitivity than conventional next-generation sequencing approaches. 4
Unity (prenatal) is the larger business, generating $277.1M in FY2025 (91% of total revenue). The Unity Complete panel tests for chromosomal aneuploidies and recessive diseases — including cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, and others — without requiring paternal DNA, a meaningful clinical differentiator versus Natera's Panorama and other NIPT (non-invasive prenatal test) platforms. 5
Northstar (oncology) is smaller ($25.0M in FY2025, 8% of revenue) but growing faster — Q1 2026 oncology revenue of $10.7M was up +392% year-over-year. Northstar Select is a liquid biopsy platform that detects somatic mutations at variant allele frequencies as low as 0.15% (95% limit of detection), which in a head-to-head study showed 51% more actionable SNV/indels and 109% more CNVs than comparator liquid biopsy tests. 56
Eight quarters of revenue
Nine consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth, no seasonal dips. Q1 2026 revenue of $108.39M was up +83.82% year-over-year. 7
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Annual trajectory: FY2023 $71.73M → FY2024 $152.58M (+112.7%) → FY2025 $305.11M (+100.0%). TTM revenue through March 31, 2026: $354.54M. 8
Earnings inflection: The company turned GAAP profitable in Q3 2025 (diluted EPS $0.14) after six consecutive loss quarters. Q1 2026 EPS of $0.34 beat the $0.04 consensus by 750% — a substantial positive surprise. 7 Gross margin reached 72.97% in Q1 2026 (versus 49.96% in Q1 2024), driven by lab efficiency and a shift toward higher-ASP tests. Operating margin was 16.45% in Q1 2026, with operating leverage evident: Q1 2026 revenue grew 83.82% while operating expenses grew 52.04% year-over-year. 6
FY2026 revenue guidance has been raised twice: initial January 2026 guidance of $415–430M was raised to $430–445M with Q4 results, then raised again to $450–465M with Q1 results — an 8.3% cumulative increase from the initial midpoint. Consensus analyst estimate at the January guidance was $393.61M; the company has already exceeded that on a run-rate basis. 69
Valuation and PEG breakdown
PEG: the 0.60 figure and its GAAP alternative
The two calculations produce materially different results, and both are presented here for transparency:
| Calculation | Forward P/E | Growth rate | PEG | Pass/Fail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finviz (screener basis) | 84.30× | 141.18% (5Y EPS, analyst consensus) | 0.60 | ✅ Pass |
| GAAP alternative (StockAnalysis) | 106.67× | 61.23% (3Y EPS GAAP, analyst consensus) | ~1.74 | ❌ Fail |
The Finviz PEG uses the forward non-GAAP P/E (84.30×, based on consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of ~$1.21) divided by the five-year EPS growth estimate of 141.18%. That growth figure means analysts expect earnings to more than double annually for five consecutive years. Only 8 analysts cover the stock, all of whom initiated coverage in December 2025 — less than seven months of active coverage. StockAnalysis does not display a PEG ratio for BLLN, noting the underlying data is unreliable for a newly public company. If the five-year growth estimate falls to 85%, the Finviz PEG rises to approximately 1.0, exactly at the filter threshold. 2
Broader valuation snapshot
| Metric | BLLN | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 130.56× (StockAnalysis) | Finviz reports 221.29× — different diluted share count for TTM EPS denominator |
| Forward P/E | 106.67× GAAP / 84.30× non-GAAP | GAAP FY2026E $0.87; non-GAAP FY2026E ~$1.21 |
| P/S (TTM) | 13.28× | vs healthcare diagnostics peer average ~3–5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 100.31× (StockAnalysis) | EBITDA early-stage at ~$43M TTM |
| P/FCF | 178.42× | FCF $26.4M TTM; heavy growth investment |
| P/B | 9.31× | Intangible QCT platform value not on balance sheet |
The P/S of 13.28× sits well above healthcare industry average (~1.2×) and closer to high-growth software multiples. At these levels, growth deceleration — even to a 50% annual rate — would compress the multiple substantially without a corresponding earnings ramp.
The stock is +70.6% above its $60.00 IPO price and has already experienced a 46% drawdown from its $130.18 post-IPO high to $77.49 (approximately May 2026), before recovering to current levels. 11
Balance sheet
The IPO transformed BLLN's balance sheet. Pre-IPO equity was -$251.66M at FY2024 year-end; the $314M gross IPO proceeds flipped it to +$480.11M by FY2025. 12
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Cash and equivalents: $537.45M. Total debt: $144.19M (long-term debt $90.01M + lease liabilities $47.94M + current lease portion $6.24M). Net cash per share: $8.55 (StockAnalysis) or $11.68 (Finviz), with the difference attributable to different diluted share count assumptions. Interest expense is essentially negligible at $0.07M TTM, explaining the 556× interest coverage. Altman Z-Score of 13.69 is well into the safe zone (>3.0). 112
One structural note: shares outstanding grew +214% year-over-year (from ~10M pre-IPO to 46M basic / 53M diluted in Q1 2026) due to IPO issuance and preferred stock conversion. Per-share metrics prior to the IPO are not comparable on a dilution-adjusted basis.
Growth catalysts
Unity Confirm: a new test category. On May 1, 2026, BillionToOne launched Unity Confirm — described as the first circulating fetal cell-based non-invasive confirmation test for high-risk NIPT results. The test uses BillionToOne's Fetal Cell Capture technology to isolate intact fetal cells from maternal blood and sequence them individually, achieving 100% concordance with known fetal outcomes across 16/16 clinical validation samples. The clinical problem it addresses: most patients who receive a high-risk NIPT result decline invasive confirmation procedures (CVS or amniocentesis), leaving them without a definitive diagnosis. Unity Confirm became commercially available May 28 and was presented at ACOG 2026. 13
CEO Oguzhan Atay at the launch: "For years, the idea of capturing whole fetal cells non-invasively was largely viewed as an elusive holy grail, something theoretically possible but practically out of reach. Unity Confirm is proof that it does not have to be." 13
Northstar in Japan national cancer study. In January 2026, BillionToOne announced that Northstar Select was selected as the liquid biopsy platform for LC-SCRUM-TRY, a nationwide multi-center study at Japan's National Cancer Center Hospital East covering 100+ institutions and approximately 2,000 drug-resistant NSCLC patient specimens. The selection followed a head-to-head evaluation in which prior assays failed sensitivity requirements. 14
Epic EHR integration. In December 2025, BillionToOne signed a collaboration with Epic to embed Unity Complete and Northstar tests into Epic's Aura diagnostics suite — the most widely deployed comprehensive EHR in the US. Results flow directly into the MyChart patient portal. Epic SVP Seth Hain: "BillionToOne's use of Aura integrates oncology and prenatal tests and results where they matter — inside the clinician's workflow, at the moment of decision." 15
Payer contract expansion. As of Q1 2026, BillionToOne reached $300 million in contracted US covered lives, up from earlier in the year — broadening the reimbursable patient pool for Unity and Northstar tests. 6
Northstar platform extensions. In February 2026, BillionToOne launched Northstar PGx (pharmacogenomics for DPYD and UGT1A1 variants — genes with FDA labeling implications for 5-FU and irinotecan chemotherapy toxicity) and Northstar Select CH (clonal hematopoiesis detection, >99% accuracy, n=114, to distinguish tumor-derived versus WBC-derived cfDNA variants). Both are add-on applications with the same five-day turnaround and same blood draw as Northstar Select. 16
TAM context. The global NIPT market was estimated at $3.62B in 2024, projected to reach $11.36B by 2033 (13.55% CAGR). The oncology liquid biopsy TAM for late-stage cancer therapy selection is estimated at $20B+, with minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring representing an additional $30B opportunity. 17
Key risks
PEG fragility (HIGH severity). As detailed above, the 0.60 PEG is Finviz-only and rests on a 141.18% five-year EPS growth estimate from eight analysts who have covered the stock for under seven months. The GAAP-based alternative calculation (~1.74) fails the filter. If consensus growth estimates normalize toward the GAAP-based three-year forecast of 61.23%, the PEG recalculates above 1.0 on either basis. This is the most critical variable for investors relying on the filter condition. 210
Valuation at current multiples (HIGH severity). P/S of 13.28×, forward P/E of 84–107×, and P/FCF of 178× leave little room for execution misses. The stock already demonstrated this sensitivity with its 46% drawdown from the post-IPO high. A revenue guidance cut or gross margin contraction would reprice the stock materially. 11
Post-lockup insider selling (MEDIUM-HIGH severity). The 180-day IPO lockup expired May 5, 2026. Within the first week of June 2026, Form 144 proposed sales were filed by CEO Oguzhan Atay (~41,250 shares, ~$4.0M value), officer Nancy JoAnn Johnson (~14,000 shares, ~$1.4M), and Chief Product Officer Shan Riku Sakakibara (8,000 shares, ~$0.8M) — approximately 63,250 shares worth ~$6.2M in total. These are initial filings covering a modest fraction of insider holdings, and the stock was up +8.43% on June 9 despite them. The risk is the pace and scale of selling in coming weeks, particularly from the VC entities (NeoTribe, Hummingbird Ventures) that together represent the majority of the 64.05% insider/beneficial ownership figure. 218
Natera dominance in NIPT (MEDIUM severity). Natera (NASDAQ: NTRA, ~$23B market cap) holds approximately 60% of the US NIPT market via its Panorama test, compared to BillionToOne's disclosed ~15% share. Natera has a materially larger sales force and established relationships with major health systems. Atay at JPMorgan 2025: "We have achieved robust prenatal business growth with a fraction of the sales force size of our largest competitor, demonstrating the power of our technology and differentiation." The technology differentiation claim is supported by clinical data, but Natera's distribution advantage in established hospital systems is a structural constraint on BLLN's share gain pace. 17
Revenue concentration in prenatal (MEDIUM severity). Prenatal accounted for $277.1M of FY2025's $305.1M total (91%). Oncology revenue is growing quickly — Q1 2026 oncology at $10.7M was up 392% year-over-year — but remains a small absolute base. Any reimbursement changes or competitive pricing pressure in the NIPT segment would affect the majority of the company's revenue. 5
Laboratory-developed test regulatory exposure (MEDIUM severity). All of BillionToOne's tests are laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) — not FDA-cleared or FDA-approved devices. The SEC 10-K confirms this structure. LDTs operate under Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) regulation rather than premarket FDA review. Any expansion of FDA oversight over LDTs — a regulatory debate that has been active for several years — could require BillionToOne to conduct formal clinical trials and submit for clearance before continuing to offer its tests. 19
Dual-class voting structure (LOW severity). Class A shares (publicly traded, 1 vote each) and Class B shares (held by co-founders Atay and Tsao, 10 votes each) give the founders effective voting control regardless of economic dilution from IPO and future issuances. Governance actions against the co-founders are structurally foreclosed for public shareholders. 19
Analyst consensus and price targets
8 analysts cover BLLN — all initiated coverage in December 2025, following the IPO quiet period. Consensus rating: 1.50 on a 1–5 scale (Strong Buy = 1). Breakdown: 4 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell. 210
Average 12-month price target: $117.71 (+14.96% upside from $102.39). Range: $90 (Wells Fargo, Hold) to $145 (Stifel Nicolaus, Buy).
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | Target | Last action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Arias | Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | $145 | Reiterated May 7, 2026 |
| Casey Woodring | JPMorgan | Buy | $125 | Raised from $120, May 7, 2026 |
| Subbu Nambi | Guggenheim | Buy | $120 | Raised from $100, May 13, 2026 |
| David Westenberg | Piper Sandler | Buy | $130 | Cut from $150, May 7, 2026 |
| — | BTIG | — | $130 | Cut from $140 |
| Brandon Couillard | Wells Fargo | Hold | $90 | Maintained Hold, May 22, 2026 |
FY2026 consensus: revenue $454.14M, GAAP EPS $0.87. FY2027 consensus: revenue $576.97M, GAAP EPS $1.03. 10
The limited analyst history (7 months) is a structural caveat on these targets — this is not a company with a multi-year consensus track record.
Insider and institutional ownership
Ownership discrepancy, explained: Finviz reports 64.05% insider ownership; StockAnalysis reports 11.16%. Both are accurate but measure different things. Finviz includes all 5%+ beneficial owners plus officers and directors — capturing the VC funds (NeoTribe Partners entities, Hummingbird Ventures entities) alongside management. StockAnalysis counts only SEC Section 16 officers and directors, excluding VC/PE funds classified as 10% beneficial owners. SEC EDGAR ownership filings confirm at least 7 entities with 10%+ beneficial owner status, including multiple NeoTribe and Hummingbird Ventures entities. Co-founders Oguzhan Atay and David Tsao are among the reported 10%+ owners. 20
Institutional ownership: 25.75% (StockAnalysis) / 17.46% (Finviz) — divergence reflects the same counting methodology difference. Short interest: 1.47M shares, representing 3.19% of shares outstanding (StockAnalysis) or 10.17% of float (Finviz, which uses a smaller float denominator of 16.54M versus StockAnalysis's 27.52M). Days to cover: 2.19. Short interest declined month-over-month from approximately 2.30M shares to 1.47M, suggesting some cover activity. 12
52-week range: $61.96–$138.70. YTD performance: +25.11%. Average daily volume (20-day): 758,624 shares. 2
Upcoming catalysts and monitoring items
- Post-lockup insider selling pace (ongoing, critical). The Form 144 filings from CEO Atay and two officers in the first week of June represent the opening wave of post-lockup supply. The rate and scale of continued selling by VC funds — which hold the majority of that 64% beneficial ownership block — over the next 4–8 weeks is the highest-uncertainty variable for near-term price action. Watch SEC EDGAR Form 4 and Form 144 filings for BillionToOne (CIK 0002070849).
- Q2 2026 earnings (~August 2026). The next revenue data point will test whether BillionToOne is tracking toward the $450–465M FY2026 guidance midpoint ($457.5M). Q1's $108.39M annualizes to ~$433M — within the original guidance range but below the raised midpoint. Unity Confirm's first commercial quarter will also contribute, and oncology's Q1 trajectory (+392% YoY) will either sustain or show early signs of deceleration from the small base effect.
- Unity Confirm 1,000-patient prospective study data. BillionToOne is enrolling a 1,000-patient study with invasive diagnostic concordance. Results would be presented at a major conference and, if positive, could support guideline inclusion and broader payer reimbursement — a meaningful TAM expansion for the prenatal business. 13
- Northstar reimbursement pathway progress. Northstar Select has Medicare coverage (Palmetto GBA MolDx). Northstar PGx, Northstar Select CH, and Unity Confirm reimbursement pathways are in development. CMS coverage decisions for any of these would expand the addressable patient population for the newer tests.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
References
- 1BillionToOne (BLLN) Statistics & Valuation — StockAnalysis
stockanalysis.com
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- 3Leadership & Board — BillionToOne
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- 4Our Technology — BillionToOne
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- 5BillionToOne Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
investors.billiontoone.com
- 6BillionToOne Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
investors.billiontoone.com
- 7BillionToOne (BLLN) Quarterly Financials — StockAnalysis
stockanalysis.com
- 8BillionToOne (BLLN) Revenue 2023–2026 — StockAnalysis
stockanalysis.com
- 9BillionToOne Provides Guidance for 2026
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- 12BillionToOne (BLLN) Balance Sheet — StockAnalysis
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- 13BillionToOne Launches Unity Confirm — BillionToOne
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- 15BillionToOne Announces Collaboration with Epic
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