2026-09-04 14:30|非农前金银持稳,9月加息定价约50%

2026-09-04 14:30|非农前金银持稳,9月加息定价约50%

非农公布前,路透记录黄金4468.27美元/盎司、白银66.59美元/盎司,9月加息定价约50%;COMEX分级库存与上金所周频出入库仍无窗口内可核验数值。

{ "schema_version": 1, "window": { "label": "上一次运行以来", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start_local": "2026-09-04 09:30:00+08:00", "end_local": "2026-09-04 14:30:00+08:00" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260904-payrolls-radar-price", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透:非农前黄金报 4468.27 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T04:10:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Reuters", "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T04:21:19.356Z", "quote_time_source": "0410 GMT", "spot_gold_usd_per_troy_ounce": 4468.27, "spot_gold_change": "steady", "us_december_gold_futures_usd_per_ounce": 4514.60, "us_december_gold_futures_change_pct": -0.6, "september_fed_rate_hike_probability_pct": 50, "previous_rate_hike_probability_reference_pct": 54, "nonfarm_payrolls_release_time_source": "1230 GMT" }, "transmission_chain": "9 月美联储加息定价约 50%且低于此前约 54%→预期利率路径上行压力暂缓、黄金持有机会成本预期下降→AU 获得日内偏多的利率驱动信号", "invalidation_conditions": "后续非农或美联储相关数据使 9 月加息概率重新明显上升,或路透修订本次报价与利率定价时,以最新可核验记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260904-payrolls-radar-price", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透:非农前白银报 66.59 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-04T04:10:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Reuters", "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T02:30:32.775Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T04:21:19.356Z", "quote_time_source": "0410 GMT", "spot_silver_usd_per_troy_ounce": 66.59, "spot_silver_change_pct": -0.5, "september_fed_rate_hike_probability_pct": 50, "previous_rate_hike_probability_reference_pct": 54, "nonfarm_payrolls_release_time_source": "1230 GMT" }, "transmission_chain": "9 月美联储加息定价约 50%且低于此前约 54%→预期利率路径上行压力暂缓、白银持有机会成本预期下降→AG 获得日内偏多的利率驱动信号", "invalidation_conditions": "后续非农或美联储相关数据使 9 月加息概率重新明显上升,或路透修订本次报价与利率定价时,以最新可核验记录覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "gap_id": "COMEX-registered-eligible", "requirement": "硬性覆盖:COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮在 CME 官方 Registrar Reports 入口之外,另检索路透 9 月 4 日白名单网页及其 COMEX 库存数值线索,未取得窗口内可核验的 Gold Stocks 或 Silver Stocks registered、eligible 数字;CME 页面仍只有下载入口。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-ground-with-us-payrolls-data-radar-2026-09-04/))" ] }, { "gap_id": "SGE-weekly-inventory-flow", "requirement": "硬性覆盖:SGE 出入库(周频)", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改查上金所最新周报详情页及其 PDF 下载文件;最新可见仍为 2026 年第 33 期,发布日期 2026-08-31、覆盖 2026-08-24 至 2026-08-28,未取得覆盖本窗口的新周频出入库数字。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007537", "https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/31/d0e7e142116d4bc29e1cc42828daaeea.pdf" ] } ] }

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