2026-08-18 23:30｜霍尔木兹遇袭，上金所库存周报更新

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T14:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-hormuz-vessel", "title": "霍尔木兹外出船遭不明物体击中", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T14:33:48.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T14:33:48.096Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-18", "reporting_body": "United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)", "vessel": { "name": "Minoan Dignity", "flag": "Liberia", "type": "bulk carrier", "voyage_segment": "outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz" }, "incident": { "projectile": "unknown", "engine_room_damage": true, "crew_casualty": 1, "casualty_role": "chief engineer", "remaining_crew_assistance": "Omani Coast Guard", "environmental_impact": "none reported", "investigation": "authorities investigating" }, "traffic_context": { "current_crossings": "single digits", "prewar_crossings": ">130 vessels/day" } }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹外出船受袭且通行量由战前每日超过 130 艘降至个位数→航运与能源供给风险上升→AU 与 AG 避险及风险溢价获得支撑，但油价推升收益率的反向链条仍可能抵消部分支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "若 UKMTO 或后续权威调查确认受袭报告失实，或后续实测通行量持续恢复至战前每日超过 130 艘，当前航运风险状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessel-struck-by-unknown-projectile-strait-hormuz-crew-casualty-reported-ukmto-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessel-struck-by-unknown-projectile-strait-hormuz-crew-casualty-reported-ukmto-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessel-struck-by-unknown-projectile-strait-hormuz-crew-casualty-reported-ukmto-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessel-struck-by-unknown-projectile-strait-hormuz-crew-casualty-reported-ukmto-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-brent-settlement", "title": "布伦特周二结算上涨 0.20 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T15:18:24.871Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-18", "benchmark": "Brent crude oil futures", "settlement_change": 0.20, "settlement_change_unit": "USD/barrel", "settlement_level_source_text": "just over $91 a barrel", "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T15:18:24.871Z" }, "transmission_chain": "美伊协议前景转弱与霍尔木兹供给风险推高布伦特结算价→能源通胀压力与利率路径预期上移→无息金银的持有机会成本上升，AU 与 AG 方向评分为-1。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续交易所结算修订，或霍尔木兹通行恢复并带动布伦特回吐本次 0.20 美元/桶涨幅，当前价格传导状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-planned-with-iran-tehran-says-strait-hormuz-still-shut-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-planned-with-iran-tehran-says-strait-hormuz-still-shut-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-planned-with-iran-tehran-says-strait-hormuz-still-shut-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-planned-with-iran-tehran-says-strait-hormuz-still-shut-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AUAG-20260818-daily-quotation", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 收 955.16 元，Ag(T+D)跌 0.57%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_data_date": "2026-08-18", "source_publication_time": "not stated; UTC field uses date anchor", "Au99.99": { "close": 955.16, "unit": "CNY/g", "change": 2.72, "change_unit": "CNY/g", "change_pct": 0.29, "weighted_average": 953.84, "volume": 3713.6, "volume_unit": "kg", "turnover": 3542215439.6, "turnover_unit": "CNY" }, "Au(T+D)": { "close": 955.00, "unit": "CNY/g", "change": 3.48, "change_unit": "CNY/g", "change_pct": 0.37, "weighted_average": 954.18, "volume": 28992, "volume_unit": "kg", "turnover": 27663738740, "turnover_unit": "CNY", "open_interest": 246806, "open_interest_unit": "contracts", "delivery_direction": "多支付给空", "delivery_volume": 13066, "delivery_volume_unit": "contracts" }, "Ag(T+D)": { "close": 15910.00, "unit": "CNY/kg", "change": -91, "change_unit": "CNY/kg", "change_pct": -0.57, "weighted_average": 15997.00, "volume": 326692, "volume_unit": "kg", "turnover": 5226122794, "turnover_unit": "CNY", "open_interest": 2949148, "open_interest_unit": "contracts", "delivery_direction": "空支付给多", "delivery_volume": 10380, "delivery_volume_unit": "contracts" }, "Ag99.99": { "close": 16000.00, "unit": "CNY/kg", "change": -150, "change_unit": "CNY/kg", "change_pct": -0.93, "volume": 180, "volume_unit": "kg", "turnover": 2880000, "turnover_unit": "CNY", "open_interest": 12, "open_interest_unit": "contracts" } }, "transmission_chain": "上金所当日 AU 合约收涨而 AG 合约收跌→人民币计价的本地金银相对强弱分化→AU 短线相对支撑、AG 短线承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "若下一交易日 AU 与 AG 同向反转并抹去本日涨跌，当前本地金银相对强弱状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-18&end_date=2026-08-18" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AUAG-20260818-weekly-stock-delivery", "title": "上金所白银库存周减 9480 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-18", "source_publication_time": "not stated; UTC field uses date anchor", "report_period": "2026-08-10 to 2026-08-14", "weekly_delivery": { "AU": { "value": 125132.68, "unit": "kg" }, "AG": { "value": 313620.00, "unit": "kg" } }, "weekly_volume_excluding_询价": { "AU": { "value": 302214.88, "unit": "kg" }, "AG": { "value": 1718028.00, "unit": "kg" } }, "weekly_delivery_ratio": { "AU": 41.41, "AG": 18.25, "unit": "%" }, "silver_designated_warehouse_stock": { "previous_week": 802590.00, "change": -9480.00, "current_week": 793110.00, "unit": "kg" }, "gold_designated_warehouse_stock": "not listed in the source table" }, "transmission_chain": "上金所周报显示白银指定仓库库存由 802590 千克降至 793110 千克且周交割量为 313620 千克→可交割白银库存缓冲收缩→AG 供给端短中期获得支撑，黄金交割数据本身不构成方向信号。", "invalidation_conditions": "若上金所后续周报修订本周白银库存或库存回升并持续高于 802590 千克，当前库存收缩信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007518", "https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/18/e9d0929247964c17b1b32ad025528223.pdf" ], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮新增检查 Bloomberg 商品市场汇总与 Reuters 市场详情，并复核 iShares SLV 发行人页和 SPDR GLD 入口；未取得本窗口可证明发布时间的持仓变动数字，SPDR 入口仍为安全校验。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-aug-18](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-aug-18)](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-aug-18](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-aug-18))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/))" ] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改用 CME 官方页面公开的 Gold_Stocks.xls 和 Silver_stocks.xls 直接报表入口，但文件下载返回 403；CME 页面本身只列出入口，未返回窗口内分级数字。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))" ] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与完整仓单数据", "status": "partial", "attempted_route": "本轮改查上金所按日期每日行情和 2026 年第 31 期官方周报，取得 2026-08-18 交易数据及白银指定仓库库存、交割数字，但页面和 PDF 未提供完整黄金白银出入库字段；正文使用已核验的库存和交割数据。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-18&end_date=2026-08-18", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007518" ] }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮复核上期所英文市场数据入口，仍返回人机识别页面，未取得窗口内 AU/AG 仓单数字。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/eng/reports/marketdata/" ] }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线", "status": "no_new_window_row", "attempted_route": "本轮复核美国财政部官方 Real Yield XML 入口，最新可读行仍为 2026-08-17，未出现 2026-08-18 窗口内新行，因此未把旧日曲线作为本期事件。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ] } ] }