MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee leads the last eight, and the White Sox are the surprise still standing

The wild-card round ran from Sept. 29 through Oct. 1 and sent half its field home. Chicago's White Sox swept Houston 6-3 and 7-3 on the road. The Yankees swept Boston 9-0 and 9-2, which ESPN called the highest series run differential in the history of the current wild-card format, and they did it with Aaron Judge on the injured list. San Diego swept the Cubs 8-0 and 4-1. Atlanta needed a third game to finish Philadelphia, winning 6-2 at home after the Phillies took Game 2. 12

The Division Series opened Oct. 3, and the National League half has produced the sharper edges. Milwaukee beat San Diego 3-2 and 4-3 at American Family Field and leads that series two games to none. The Dodgers and Braves split two games at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles winning 5-3 and Atlanta answering 3-2. In the American League, Tampa Bay beat the Yankees 1-0 in Game 1, and Chicago's White Sox won 3-0 in Cleveland. Both AL series resume Monday. 12

Eight clubs are left. The board below covers all 30: the eight still playing are ranked first, and the 22 whose seasons ended follow in the order their seasons finished.

Every regular-season edition of this space averaged three ordinal lists — ESPN's, The Athletic's and MLB.com's — and tested them against FanGraphs' numbers. The end of the regular season closed that series. ESPN's October coverage has run matchup previews and World Series odds, and MLB.com's newest ranking covers the 12 playoff clubs. FanGraphs published a postseason board on Sept. 29 and placed it behind its members' paywall. 345

Two ordinal lists cover the playoff field, and both are used here. The Athletic's ranking of the 12 postseason teams, published Sept. 29 and updated Oct. 1, averages where each club placed in four regular-season measures: its record, its Pythagorean record, its record over the final 30 games, and BaseRuns. MLB.com's playoff power rankings, published Sept. 28, come from a panel of the site's contributors. 46

Both lists rest on regular-season measures, so the ranks below record how those outlets read the playoff field on the eve of October. The eight surviving clubs are ranked on the average of the two, and the columns beside them carry the live layer: each series' current state and FanGraphs' title odds, refreshed at 1:53 a.m. ET on Oct. 5. The 22 eliminated clubs are ordered by how far each advanced, and then by where it finished the regular season. Records are final. 467

The A / M column gives each club's rank from The Athletic and MLB.com. Win WS is FanGraphs' chance of winning the World Series. The eight still alive come first.

The 22 clubs whose seasons are over, ordered by how far they went and then by their final regular-season standing.

Three sweeps and one three-game series rearranged the middle of the top eight, and the results have already outrun the ranks in two places.

Chicago's White Sox were the last club into the field and have won all three games they have played, outscoring Houston 13-6 and then blanking Cleveland 3-0 in Game 1. Both editorial lists rank them eighth of the eight, and FanGraphs gives them the better side of their series, at 59.4% to Cleveland's 40.6%. 267

San Diego sits on the other side of that gap. The Padres swept the Cubs in the wild-card round and then lost two one-run games in Milwaukee, and the model now puts them at 1.4% to win the World Series, the longest odds of the eight. 27

New York's sweep of Boston was the round's most lopsided, 18 runs to 2, with Judge on the injured list and Cam Schlittler and the rotation carrying the load. 310 The Rays then beat the Yankees 1-0 in Game 1 on five Tampa Bay hits and one New York hit. 12

Atlanta and Los Angeles traded one-run games at Dodger Stadium, and the Braves head home even after dropping Game 1. The Brewers, meanwhile, won both games against San Diego by a single run, and no other club left is as close to advancing. 2

FanGraphs' model, refreshed Monday at 1:53 a.m. ET, sorts the eight by their chance of winning the World Series.

The model and the two editorial lists agree at the top and split underneath. Both lists put Milwaukee first and the Dodgers second, while FanGraphs gives Los Angeles the shortest title odds at 36.2% against Milwaukee's 20.1%. The lists also keep the Padres sixth and the White Sox eighth; FanGraphs reverses both of those, giving Chicago a 59.4% chance to win its series and San Diego a 9.5% chance to win its own. 467

ESPN's own simulation, published Oct. 2 before the series opened, saw the same two favorites as near equals — the Dodgers at 21.8% to win the World Series and the Brewers at 21.6% — and made the Yankees a slight favorite over the Rays, at 52% to advance against 48%. It put the White Sox at 4.4% and the Padres at 5.7%. 3

Judge's right calf strain kept him off the Yankees' Division Series roster. He has taken live batting practice, and manager Aaron Boone said Judge is "not quite ready to do it," with a return more likely if the club reaches the Championship Series. 10

Tampa Bay left Shane McClanahan off its Division Series roster because of left forearm tightness, and he has thrown on the side while the club keeps open a return in a later round. 10

San Diego put Walker Buehler on the paternity list Oct. 3, with Randy Vásquez taking his roster spot, and Casey Mize stays ineligible until at least the NLCS after a Sept. 26 left ankle sprain. 10

Bryce Elder, who had right knee surgery, and Martín Pérez, who has lower back inflammation, are off Atlanta's Division Series roster. Both could return in a Championship Series. 10

Los Angeles lost Blake Treinen for the whole postseason to a right shoulder injury, and the club added Edgardo Henriquez to the Division Series roster after his lower back discomfort cleared. Milwaukee's Joey Ortiz made the roster after a Sept. 24 right knee injury, and Andrew Vaughn returned from illness. 10

Cleveland kept Rhys Hoskins on the taxi squad after adding an extra pitcher, and Colin Holderman's season ended with wrist surgery. 10

Both American League series play Game 2 on Monday: the White Sox visit the Guardians at 5 p.m. ET, and the Yankees visit the Rays at 8 p.m. ET. The National League takes Tuesday, with the Dodgers at the Braves at 6 p.m. ET and the Brewers at the Padres at 9:30 p.m. ET. 12

The Division Series move to the lower seeds for the middle games. Cleveland hosts Game 2 on Monday before the White Sox host Games 3 and 4 on Oct. 7 and 8, and Tampa Bay hosts Game 2 before the Yankees host Games 3 and 4 on Oct. 7 and 8. Milwaukee carries its two home wins to San Diego for Games 3 and 4 on Oct. 6 and 7, and Atlanta hosts Games 3 and 4 against the Dodgers on Oct. 6 and 7. Any Game 5 would return to the higher seed. 1

The Championship Series open Oct. 11 in the National League and Oct. 12 in the American League. The World Series begins Oct. 23. 9