截至8月11日09时的5条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-blooming", "title": "美国 18 州大豆开花率升至 93%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆开花率", "value": 93, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 88%，2025 年同期 90%，2021-2025 年均值 91%；周环比增加 5 个百分点" }, { "metric": "report_date", "value": "2026-08-10", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA Crop Progress 发布日期" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "开花率周环比增加 5 个百分点且高于五年均值 2 个百分点→生长进度领先→短期供应预期的天气不确定性收窄→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 修正开花进度数据", "后续关键生长期出现高温干旱并导致优良率下修" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-podset", "title": "美国 18 州大豆结荚率升至 74%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 74, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 62%，2025 年同期 69%，2021-2025 年均值 69%；周环比增加 12 个百分点" }, { "metric": "report_date", "value": "2026-08-10", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA Crop Progress 发布日期" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "结荚率周环比增加 12 个百分点且高于五年均值 5 个百分点→产量形成阶段推进更快→供应预期偏宽→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 修正结荚进度数据", "结荚后异常高温、干旱或病虫害导致单产预期下修" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-condition", "title": "美国 18 州大豆优良率降至 62%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆优良率", "value": 62, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，18 州合计；Good 51% + Excellent 11%", "comparison": "前一周 63%（Good 52% + Excellent 11%），2025 年同期 68%（Good 53% + Excellent 15%）；周环比下降 1 个百分点" }, { "metric": "report_date", "value": "2026-08-10", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA Crop Progress 发布日期" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "优良率由前周 63%降至 62%，且低于去年同期 68%→作物质量预期边际走弱→天气风险权重上升→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏多一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 修正优良率数据", "后续报告优良率回升并持续高于去年同期" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-condition-north-dakota", "title": "北达科他大豆差等率达 27%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆差等率", "value": 27, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，北达科他州；Very Poor 5% + Poor 22%", "comparison": "同报告 18 州合计差等率 10%（Very Poor 2% + Poor 8%），高 17 个百分点；州级前周和去年同期对比未在本表列出" }, { "metric": "大豆优良率", "value": 31, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，北达科他州；Good 30% + Excellent 1%", "comparison": "同报告 18 州合计优良率 62%，低 31 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "北达科他州差等率高于 18 州合计、优良率显著低于合计→局部产量和单产风险更集中→对美豆供应预期形成偏多天气风险信号→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏多一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续州级报告显示北达科他州优良率回升或差等率下降", "USDA 修正州级条件数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260809-soybean-condition-iowa", "title": "爱荷华大豆优良率达 77%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ { "metric": "大豆优良率", "value": 77, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，爱荷华州；Good 58% + Excellent 19%", "comparison": "同报告 18 州合计优良率 62%，高 15 个百分点；州级前周和去年同期对比未在本表列出" }, { "metric": "大豆差等率", "value": 6, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-09，爱荷华州；Very Poor 1% + Poor 5%", "comparison": "同报告 18 州合计差等率 10%，低 4 个百分点" } ], "transmission_chain": [ "爱荷华州优良率高于 18 州合计、差等率低于合计→主产区样本的供应风险有所分化→对美豆供应预期形成局部偏空信号→SOYMEAL_ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续州级报告显示爱荷华州优良率回落或差等率上升", "USDA 修正州级条件数据" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796012/prog3226.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ]