
2026-08-04|美国实际收益率曲线(8月3日)全期限下降
截至2026年8月4日11:00,新增可核验事实仅为美国财政部8月3日5Y至30Y实际收益率均低于7月31日;COT、美国CPI/PCE/非农、FOMC、SGE无未重复更新。
{
"schema_version": 1,
"as_of": "2026-08-04 11:00:00+08:00",
"asset_universe": [
"AU",
"AG",
"COMEX_GC",
"COMEX_SI",
"GOLD_ETF"
],
"events": [
{
"event_id": "treasury_real_yield_curve_20260803",
"event_type": "TREASURY_REAL_YIELD",
"title": "美国财政部 8 月 3 日实际收益率全期限下降",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-03",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"asset_keys": [
"AU",
"AG",
"COMEX_GC",
"COMEX_SI",
"GOLD_ETF"
],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AU": 1,
"AG": 1,
"COMEX_GC": 1,
"COMEX_SI": 1,
"GOLD_ETF": 1
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "美国财政部 5Y 至 30Y 实际收益率较 7 月 31 日全部下降→持有无息资产的机会成本变量走低→对金银价格形成支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "若后续美国财政部实际收益率数据普遍回升并高于 2026-07-31 对应期限,或后续宏观数据使实际利率预期上行,本事件的方向判断作废",
"raw_facts": {
"series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates",
"published_time_note": "原文仅给出数据行日期 2026-08-03,未给出该行的精确发布时间;published_at_utc 按可确认最早日期 00:00:00Z 记录。",
"event_time_note": "原文给出数据行日期 2026-08-03 但未给出精确事件时刻;event_time_quality=day_only,event_time_utc 填裸日期。",
"observations": {
"2026-08-03": {
"5 YR": "2.17",
"7 YR": "2.29",
"10 YR": "2.43",
"20 YR": "2.78",
"30 YR": "2.99"
},
"2026-07-31": {
"5 YR": "2.19",
"7 YR": "2.32",
"10 YR": "2.47",
"20 YR": "2.82",
"30 YR": "3.03"
}
},
"comparison_note": "来源页面同时列出 2026-07-31 与 2026-08-03;五个期限的 2026-08-03 原文值均低于 2026-07-31 原文值。"
},
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "Daily Treasury Rates",
"url": "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))",
"published_at": "原文未披露精确时刻,数据行日期为 2026-08-03"
},
"source_urls": [
"[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"
],
"source_tier": "A"
}
]
}
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