2026-08-04|美国实际收益率曲线(8月3日)全期限下降

2026-08-04|美国实际收益率曲线(8月3日)全期限下降

截至2026年8月4日11:00,新增可核验事实仅为美国财政部8月3日5Y至30Y实际收益率均低于7月31日;COT、美国CPI/PCE/非农、FOMC、SGE无未重复更新。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-04 11:00:00+08:00", "asset_universe": [ "AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "treasury_real_yield_curve_20260803", "event_type": "TREASURY_REAL_YIELD", "title": "美国财政部 8 月 3 日实际收益率全期限下降", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-03", "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 100, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 1, "COMEX_GC": 1, "COMEX_SI": 1, "GOLD_ETF": 1 }, "horizon": "days", "transmission_chain": "美国财政部 5Y 至 30Y 实际收益率较 7 月 31 日全部下降→持有无息资产的机会成本变量走低→对金银价格形成支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续美国财政部实际收益率数据普遍回升并高于 2026-07-31 对应期限,或后续宏观数据使实际利率预期上行,本事件的方向判断作废", "raw_facts": { "series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates", "published_time_note": "原文仅给出数据行日期 2026-08-03,未给出该行的精确发布时间;published_at_utc 按可确认最早日期 00:00:00Z 记录。", "event_time_note": "原文给出数据行日期 2026-08-03 但未给出精确事件时刻;event_time_quality=day_only,event_time_utc 填裸日期。", "observations": { "2026-08-03": { "5 YR": "2.17", "7 YR": "2.29", "10 YR": "2.43", "20 YR": "2.78", "30 YR": "2.99" }, "2026-07-31": { "5 YR": "2.19", "7 YR": "2.32", "10 YR": "2.47", "20 YR": "2.82", "30 YR": "3.03" } }, "comparison_note": "来源页面同时列出 2026-07-31 与 2026-08-03;五个期限的 2026-08-03 原文值均低于 2026-07-31 原文值。" }, "source": { "tier": "A", "title": "Daily Treasury Rates", "url": "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "published_at": "原文未披露精确时刻,数据行日期为 2026-08-03" }, "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ] }

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