Bay Area housing: San Francisco supply at 1.3 months, listings down 53.6%, and rates at 6.95%

Two cities in the same region are moving in opposite directions, and borrowing costs just rose for both. Redfin's rolling three-month window ending August 2026 puts the San Francisco median sale price at $1,591,447, up 13.7% from the same period a year earlier, while the same window puts San Jose at $1,398,019, down 3.6%. 12 That week, Freddie Mac's national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.95%. 3

The price and sales columns come from closings recorded over the three months ending August 2026. The visible-count column is a live snapshot of the Redfin shopping page, read on September 21.

Bidding shows the gap more clearly than the medians do. San Francisco's average sale-to-list ratio reached 114.0% in August, 8.2 percentage points above a year earlier, and homes went under contract in a median of 20 days against 27 days last August. 1 San Jose's ratio was 101.5%, down 0.29 points, with 21 days on market. 2 Oakland sat between them at 111.5% and 22 days, with prices up 6.5%. 6

C.A.R.'s county figures run on a different clock, and they read differently. San Francisco County's August median was $1,875,000, up 25.0% from August 2025; San Mateo County reached $2,250,000, up 13.2%; Santa Clara County was flat at $1,900,000; Alameda County posted $1,285,000, up 1.3%. Across the nine-county region the median was $1,272,000, down 1.0% from July and 0.2% below a year earlier. 8 A single month of county closings swings with the mix of homes that sold, since a month heavy in condos or in hillside houses moves the median without any change in what a particular house is worth. A three-month city window averages that mix out. The regional median and the city medians can therefore point apart and both be accurate.

C.A.R. measures active inventory as months of supply. The Bay Area index rose to 2.6 months in August from 2.3 in July and stayed below the 2.9 months of a year earlier.

Months of supply, from 8. C.A.R. counts active listings on the eighth day of the month.

San Francisco County carries 1.3 months of supply, the tightest reading in the region and half its year-ago level. Active listings there fell 53.6% year over year, the largest decline among the 53 counties C.A.R. tracks, and statewide active listings were down 6.2%. 8 San Mateo and Santa Clara counties sit at 1.7 and 2.1 months. The regional median time on market was 22 days, against 25 days a year ago. 8

The live listing pages give a third view. Redfin showed 1,036 visible homes in San Francisco plus 62 early-access listings on September 21, against 1,368 plus 46 in San Jose and 940 plus 9 in Oakland. 457 That count is what a shopper can tour today, while the index describes how fast August's inventory cleared.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.95% for the week ending September 17, up from 6.76% a week earlier and 6.26% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed average rose to 6.26% from 6.09%. 3

On the San Francisco median with 20% down, a loan of $1,273,158 at 6.95% costs $8,428 a month in principal and interest. At the previous week's rate the same loan cost $8,266, so the week's move added $162 a month. At 6.26% a year ago the payment was $7,847, which leaves today's borrower paying $581 more each month for the same house. The figure covers principal and interest only; county property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, and closing costs sit outside it. 13

California voters decide Proposition 37 on November 3. The measure would create a $25 billion loan program for middle-income buyers of newly built single-family homes. Qualified buyers could borrow up to 17% of the purchase price at a fixed rate, with a minimum 3% down payment, at least one year of California residency, and household income under 200% of area median income. The bonds are repaid by the participating homeowners. 9 C.A.R., which supports the measure, says the program would help finance roughly 190,000 new homes. 10 The same ballot carries Proposition 45, which would put state agencies on deadlines for environmental review of most housing projects and shorten the window for lawsuits against them. 9

The program would apply to loans made after the measure takes effect, so its terms matter most to anyone planning a new-build purchase for 2027.

Freddie Mac publishes its next survey on Thursday. September's closed sales, due in C.A.R.'s October release, will show whether Bay Area supply holds above 2.6 months or slips back toward the summer's tighter readings. On November 3, California decides whether the state's housing finance agency gets a $25 billion loan program.