Wages Grew 3.1% as Prices Grew 3.6%, and Microsoft Offered 60,000 Employees an Exit: November 2 Briefing
Weekly U.S. job-market intelligence for October 26–November 1: claims held at 194,000, the Fed held rates on a 10–2 vote, wage growth slowed to 3.1% against 3.6% inflation, and Microsoft offered about 60,000 employees a voluntary exit while reporting a 32% profit rise.
The week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 produced one reassuring reading of hiring and one poor reading of pay.
New claims for unemployment benefits came in at 194,000, close to a level last reached in 1969. Wages rose 3.1% over the year through September, while the price index the Federal Reserve watches rose 3.6%.
Microsoft offered about 60,000 employees a voluntary exit on Monday, then reported $36.6 billion of quarterly net income on Wednesday, up 32%. Dropbox cut 9% of its staff and told investors the same day that results would meet guidance.
Ahead: the October layoff count from Challenger, Gray & Christmas lands this week, September job openings on November 3, productivity and costs on November 5, the October jobs report on November 6, CPI and real earnings on November 10, and producer prices on November 13. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Hiring highlights
Claims held at 194,000, close to the lowest since 1969
Initial claims count the people who filed for unemployment benefits after losing a job. They came in at a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in the week ended October 24, down 1,000 from a revised 195,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by Reuters expected 199,000. (Source: Reuters)
Claims have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September. The lowest week of the year, 189,000 in mid-July, was the smallest number since 1969. (Source: Reuters)
Continuing claims count people still collecting after an initial week, so the figure works as a rough proxy for hiring: someone who finds work drops off the count. That number fell 21,000 to 1.701 million in the week ended October 17. (Source: Reuters)
Economists describe the result as a "low-hire, low-fire" market. Strong profits have kept layoffs near historic lows, while the war with Iran has made employers hesitant to add headcount. (Source: Reuters)
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% and said hiring kept pace
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 on October 28 to keep its target range at 3.75% to 4%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase. (Source: Federal Reserve)
The statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as elevated. On jobs it said: "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little." (Source: Federal Reserve)
Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that "on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive." Unemployment was 4.2% in September and could hold steady or edge down in October, and economists expect a rate increase in December. (Source: Reuters)
Consumers said jobs were easier to find in October
The Conference Board's confidence index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October from 84.2 in September. The survey was taken between October 1 and 21. (Source: The Conference Board)
The share of consumers who called jobs "plentiful" rose to 26.7% from 24.3%. The share who called jobs "hard to get" held at 21.4%, which widened the gap between the two to 5.3 points from 2.9. (Source: The Conference Board)
Fergus McCormick, a senior economist at the Conference Board, tied the gain to cheaper gasoline. He said confidence "remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years," and mentions of jobs as a concern ticked up. (Source: The Conference Board)
The only employers adding jobs last quarter were the largest
Business Employment Dynamics counts gross job gains at expanding and newly opened private establishments, and gross job losses at contracting and closing ones. The release published October 28 covers December 2025 through March 2026. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Gross gains were 7.4 million jobs, down 478,000 from the previous quarter. Gross losses were 7.3 million, up 43,000. Each equalled 5.5% of private employment, which left a net gain of 88,000 jobs. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Sort the same quarter by employer size and the picture narrows to one group.
| Employer size | Net change in jobs, first quarter 2026 |
|---|---|
| 1 to 49 employees | −67,000 |
| 50 to 249 employees | −5,000 |
| 250 or more employees | +255,000 |
| All private employers | +88,000 |
All rows: (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Goods-producing industries added 96,000 jobs and service-providing industries lost 8,000. Gains exceeded losses in 6 of 13 industry sectors and in 29 states. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
This is the newest churn data the country publishes, and it describes the winter rather than this week. The October payroll report on November 6 will describe the autumn.
Layoff tracker
Microsoft offered a quarter of its staff an exit, then reported a 32% profit rise
Chief People Officer Amy Coleman told employees on October 26 that Microsoft would open a Voluntary Exit Offer. It went to eligible staff at level 70 and below, the company's vice president tier, in participating teams in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and India. (Source: KUOW)
Only some organizations took part. Microsoft said each organization's leadership set eligibility, and that sales, parts of marketing and some engineering teams would sit it out. About 60,000 people qualified, roughly a quarter of the workforce. (Source: KUOW)
The terms follow the company's standard severance. That package typically carries base pay for a period set by tenure, stock, health coverage and career planning. An earlier voluntary retirement round drew about 30% of those eligible. (Source: KUOW)
Most of the 60,000 are expected to stay. Business Insider reported that finance chief Amy Hood told staff she expects "very few people" to select the offer. (Source: Business Insider)
Two days later, Microsoft reported revenue of $92.3 billion for the quarter to September 30, up 19%. Net income was $36.6 billion, up 32%. Microsoft Cloud revenue rose 30% to $63.9 billion, while Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 22%. (Source: Microsoft)
A Microsoft spokesperson told KUOW the exit offer is unrelated to AI.
Dropbox cut 9% and told staff the business is profitable
Dropbox told staff on October 28 that it would cut about 9% of its global workforce, roughly 200 roles. (Source: Business Insider)
In a filing the same day, the company put the cash cost at $27 million to $33 million. That covers severance and benefits including a pro rata share of the 2026 bonus, with substantially all of the expense falling in the fourth quarter. (Source: Securities and Exchange Commission)
Chief technology officer Ali Dasdan will leave on November 18. He receives a $515,000 pro rata bonus and a lump-sum payment of about $1.3 million. (Source: Securities and Exchange Commission)
In the memo to staff, Ashraf Alkarmi wrote that "our business is profitable, and we've built real momentum this year." Dropbox reports third-quarter results on November 5. (Source: Business Insider)
ING will cut about 400 in wholesale banking
ING said on October 29 that it would simplify its wholesale banking arm and rename it corporate and institutional banking. The new structure takes effect in March and removes around 400 roles. (Source: Dow Jones via MarketScreener)
The bank expects a €175 million pretax provision in the fourth quarter and savings of about €75 million a year from 2028. (Source: Dow Jones via MarketScreener)
The same morning ING reported third-quarter net profit of €1.85 billion, up from €1.79 billion a year earlier and below the €1.97 billion analysts expected. It also announced a €1.65 billion share buyback. (Source: Dow Jones via MarketScreener, ING)
Chief executive Steven van Rijswijk told an interviewer that AI would help ING "not only to save on costs, also to be able to enlarge the scalability of the growth." (Source: Dow Jones via MarketScreener)
The rest of the ledger
Amazon cut "a small number of roles" in its devices and services unit on October 28. The move followed weeks of product launches including new Kindle e-readers and tablets. (Source: Reuters)
Amazon had cut about 1,000 jobs in its core retail division earlier in October. (Source: Reuters)
Comcast is carrying a $1 billion fourth-quarter charge, including layoffs, against its connectivity business. The company flagged the charge the week before. (Source: Deadline)
In San Francisco, Dropbox and Front cut a combined 110 jobs at their headquarters in the same week. California WARN filings show tech companies have eliminated nearly 14,500 Bay Area positions in 2026. (Source: New York Post)
The national total is still well below last year. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 573,195 announced cuts from January through September, down 39% from 946,426 a year earlier. (Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas)
| Company | Announced | Jobs | Share of workforce | Stated reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | Oct 26 | ~60,000 offers | ~25% eligible | Workforce flexibility |
| ING | Oct 29 | ~400 | Under 1% | Wholesale banking restructuring |
| Dropbox | Oct 28 | ~200 | ~9% | Aligning investment with priorities |
Microsoft's figure counts offers rather than departures, and the company expects 3,000 or fewer people to take one. (Source: Business Insider)
Industry spotlight: wages grew 3.1% while prices grew 3.6%
The Employment Cost Index measures what employers pay for the same jobs over time, adjusting for shifts in occupation and industry. The Federal Reserve watches it because it strips out the effect of a changing workforce. (Source: Reuters)
Compensation costs rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3.4% over the 12 months through September. That is the fourth quarter in a row at 3.4%. (Source: Reuters)
Wages and salaries rose 0.7% in the quarter and 3.1% over the year, down from 3.2%. Benefits rose 0.9% in the quarter and 3.9% over the year. (Source: Reuters)
| Component | 3 months, seasonally adjusted | 12 months, not adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Compensation, all civilian workers | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| Wages and salaries | 0.7% | 3.1% |
| Benefits | 0.9% | 3.9% |
| Private health insurance | — | 6.4% |
Rows: (Source: Reuters, Cornell ILR)
Prices ran faster. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 3.6% in the 12 months to September, and its core measure rose 3.1%. Both were reported on October 29. (Source: Reuters)
Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same period. Adjusted for prices, wages fell 0.6% over the year through September, after a 0.3% decline in the year through June. (Source: Cornell ILR, Reuters)
The makeup of the increase shifted. Employer health insurance costs for private industry workers rose 6.4%, two and a half points above overall benefits. Oxford Economics called it the fastest pace since 2005. (Source: Cornell ILR, Reuters)
Union wages rose 4.3% against 3.0% for nonunion workers, widening the gap to 1.3 points from 0.5. (Source: Cornell ILR)
"Labor-cost inflation continues to move in the right direction," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. She added that the Fed will take comfort that "the labor market is no longer a significant source of price pressures." (Source: Reuters)
Wages growing slower than prices while input costs climb faster is consistent with the week's layoffs. Headcount is the line a finance team can still move. (Source: Cornell ILR)
Growth roles and skills: two growing jobs with very different entry routes
The Bureau of Labor Statistics ranks the 20 occupations with the highest projected percentage growth between 2025 and 2035. The ranking measures the rate of growth, so a small occupation can outrank a large one. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Advanced practice registered nurses sit near the top. The group held 399,000 jobs in 2025, is projected to add 36% by 2035, and averages 32,200 openings a year. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Nurse practitioners alone are projected to grow 41%, the fastest of any occupation on the list, on a 2025 median wage of $132,300. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Wind turbine technicians show what the rate hides. Employment is projected to grow 30%, from 11,800 jobs in 2025, which comes to about 1,500 openings a year. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
| Occupation | Growth, 2025–35 | 2025 median pay | Jobs, 2025 | Openings a year | Entry education |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced practice registered nurses | +36% | $134,920 | 399,000 | 32,200 | Master's degree |
| Wind turbine technicians | +30% | $64,120 | 11,800 | 1,500 | Postsecondary certificate |
Rows: (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The entry routes diverge as sharply as the pay. A nurse practitioner needs a master's degree in an advanced practice role, a state license and a national certification exam. Physicians' offices employ 46% of that group and hospitals 25%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
A wind technician typically completes a certificate or associate degree at a technical school or community college, then learns the specific turbines on the job. Wind electric power generation employs 42% of them, and the work happens above 200 feet, often on call. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Solar photovoltaic installers, the second-fastest growing occupation at 37%, offer a third version of that trade route, at a 2025 median of $53,140. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
These are decade projections published in August. They tell you what the field will need, and what it will cost you to be qualified when it does.
Job seeker tip: price the offer against 3.1%, then read the benefits line
Any raise or offer this month has two reference points. Employers' wage costs rose 3.1% over the past year. Prices rose 3.6%. A 3% raise is about a 0.6% pay cut. (Source: Reuters)
Use the wage figure in the conversation rather than the inflation figure. The Employment Cost Index compares the same job to itself a year earlier, which is what a raise is, while the CPI compares a basket of goods. Employers recognize the first number, and the Fed cites it. (Source: Reuters)
Where base pay is fixed, price the rest. Employer health insurance costs rose 6.4% over the year, and companies finalizing 2027 plans are scaling back spousal coverage, dropping some drug coverage and raising premium contributions. (Source: Cornell ILR)
Four questions settle most of it: what share of the premium you pay, what the deductible is, whether a spouse can be covered, and whether the plan covers the medication you take. Ask for the answers in writing with the offer.
An offer that holds base pay flat but cuts your monthly premium by a few hundred dollars can beat a 2% raise. Putting both numbers on one page is how you tell which one you were handed.
Next week brings September job openings on November 3 and the October jobs report on November 6, the first full month of data after this one. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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