Hold day: 5 deals (June 13)

Yesterday was noisy. Two floors broke upward — the Sony A7 IV jumped +$330 and the Nikon Z 24-70/4 S jumped +$105 — and the session ended with two brand-new ATLs on the Sony A6700 and Fujifilm X-H2. Today, 24 hours later: every one of those floors is unchanged. No new breaks, no new bounces. The market found a line and parked on it.

That's not a lack of signal. A floor that holds through a bounce session is a floor with real supply behind it, not a single motivated seller draining out. Day 2 is when the absorbing begins — or doesn't.

System weather (June 13): Sony E-mount is running four simultaneous ATL floors: the FE 24/1.4 GM on Day 6, the FE 85/1.8 on Day 8 (the longest single-item streak in this tracking cycle), the FE 24-105/4 G on Day 7, and now the A6700 body on Day 2. Fujifilm X has two ATL bodies on the board at once, the X-H2 and the X-T5 both sitting at their lowest MPB prices. The Panasonic S5 II hit Day 16 this morning with 20 Like New copies still available — a near three-week hold at the same price.

Six days. 26 units. Price unmoved. 1

The Sony FE 24mm f/1.4 GM (G Master ultra-wide prime, MSRP $1,398) has now held its $399 floor across every single tracked session since June 8 — the longest active ATL streak among GM primes in this cycle. Unit count: 26 units available, range $399–$879. Inventory has not drained.

Sony FE 24mm f/1.4 GM at $399 on MPB, Day 6 of ATL. 1

The grade at $399 is unconfirmed at the aggregate level — the top visible listings run $854–$879 (Excellent), which puts the floor units somewhere below Good, likely Well Used. For a prime lens, that's a practical trade-off: the optical and AF value is in the XA aspherical element and Nano AR coating, not the barrel finish. Check the front element for cleaning marks, rear element for coating edge wear at the mount ring, and run the focus motor through its full throw. No documented serial-range defects on the 24/1.4 GM.

At 71% off MSRP, the day-to-day question is whether the 26 units are absorbing. Six sessions with no unit count change means either: (a) the listing replenishes as units sell, or (b) nobody is buying at $399. Either interpretation supports holding the floor. What it doesn't support is the price breaking lower.

6-month range: $399 ATL (Day 6) to $879 on MPB. Grade at $399: unconfirmed, likely Well Used. Shutter count: N/A (lens). Known red flags: none.

Verdict: Buy. Six-day GM prime ATL at 71% off MSRP. Inspect the front element before committing, but the optics-to-price ratio is not something this market produces often.

Pair with: Sony FE 85mm f/1.8 at $149 (Pick 4) for a 24mm + 85mm E-mount two-prime kit at $548 combined — both at confirmed multi-day ATLs.

The floor held overnight. 2

The Sony A6700 (Sony's APS-C flagship mirrorless, MSRP ~$1,398 body-only) dropped to $1,319 on Day 1 — a new all-time low on MPB. Day 2: 76 units still available, range $1,319–$1,399, identical to yesterday's snapshot. The default "price high to low" sort shows the eight visible listings all at $1,399 (Excellent or Like New). The $1,319 floor corresponds to Good-grade units not surfaced in the top sort — confirmed by the grade-price pattern across similar bodies.

Sony A6700 at $1,319 on MPB, Day 2 of first-ever ATL. 2

What the A6700 is: 26MP BSI APS-C sensor, 759-point phase-detect AF with Sony's AI subject-recognition system (the same engine that debuted in the A7R V), 4K/120p video, and 5-axis IBIS. It shares Sony's full-frame lens lineup via the E-mount, which means the 76mm-equivalent of the FE 50/1.8 at $117 reads naturally on this body. The highest-actuation unit visible in the listing data at $1,399 showed 15,548 shutter counts; the rated shutter lifespan on the A6700 is 200,000 actuations, so that's 7.8% used. Shutter counts at the $1,319 floor are not visible without clicking through individual listings — check at checkout.

The 76-unit inventory is meaningful context. MPB's $1,319 floor on a body with 76 available copies is not a single-seller anomaly — it's a volume price. No documented defects or serial-range issues on the A6700.

6-month range: $1,319 (new ATL, Day 2) to $1,399 on MPB. Grade at $1,319: likely Good — confirm per listing. Shutter count: not visible at aggregate; check per-listing. Known red flags: none.

Verdict: Buy. Day 2 floor confirmation on a 76-unit inventory. Grade verification at checkout is the only remaining check.

Pair with: Sony FE 50mm f/1.8 at $117 (109 units on MPB) 3 — body plus portrait prime at $1,436 combined.

Same price, same session. 4

The Fujifilm X-H2 (40MP X-Trans BSI APS-C, MSRP ~$1,999 body-only) dropped to $1,549 on Day 1 from a long-running $1,649 floor — a $100 move on a body that had held flat for weeks. Day 2: 10+ units available, range $1,549–$1,679, no change. The direct product page is currently Cloudflare-blocked; the $1,549 floor is cross-confirmed via two independent MPB search queries. Per-unit grade and shutter count require the individual listing page.

The X-H2's position in Fujifilm's lineup is specific: highest-resolution X-mount body (40MP), 8-stop IBIS, 4K/60p, and Fujifilm's film simulation suite including Reala Ace and Nostalgic Neg. It uses Fujifilm's DSLR-grip form factor — deep handgrip, large EVF — which distinguishes it from the X-T (SLR-style top-deck controls) and X-Pro (rangefinder) lines. The X-H2 S is its stacked-sensor sibling, trading resolution for burst speed; if video and resolution over continuous burst is the use case, the X-H2 is the right body. No documented serial-range defects.

6-month range: $1,549 (new ATL, Day 2) to $1,679 on MPB. Grade at $1,549: unknown — verify per listing. Shutter count: not visible from search page. Known red flags: none.

Verdict: Buy. Day 2 confirmation on a $100 drop. Grade verification is required at the individual listing level — the aggregate search confirms the price but not the condition.

Pair with: Fujifilm XF 50mm f/2 R WR at $244 (Pick 5) 5 for a body-plus-WR-prime kit under $1,800, or the XF 35mm f/2 R WR at $249 (Day 10 ATL, 10+ units) 6.

Eight consecutive sessions at the same price. 7

The Sony FE 85mm f/1.8 (full-frame portrait prime, MSRP $598) has held $149 for eight sessions straight — the longest unbroken ATL streak among all tracked items in this cycle. Current inventory: 10+ units, range $149–$389, cross-confirmed via the Sony A7 IV related-listings sidebar (the direct product page remains Cloudflare-blocked). The sidebar data has held consistent across multiple independent cross-references.

Eight days is long enough that the $149 price is no longer a flash event — it's the market's established valuation for this lens at its lower grade tier. The grade at $149 is almost certainly Well Used based on its position at the deep end of the $149–$389 range. The FE 85/1.8 doesn't have G Master-level coma correction or aperture control, but at f/1.8 full-frame it focuses fast, renders backgrounds cleanly, and has no documented production issues. Check the front element and the focus motor response; on 85mm primes, internal focus element centering is the most common wear point.

6-month range: $149–$389 on MPB. $149 is the all-time low. Shutter count: N/A (lens). Grade at $149: likely Well Used. Known red flags: none.

Verdict: Buy. A full-week ATL is a pricing floor, not a sale. Inspect the glass; the mechanics hold up.

Pair with: Sony FE 24mm f/1.4 GM at $399 (Pick 1) for a 24/85 two-prime E-mount kit at $548 combined — both multi-day ATLs. 1

Six sessions. 5

The Fujifilm XF 50mm f/2 R WR (weather-resistant compact prime for X-mount, ~76mm full-frame equivalent, MSRP $449) has held $244 through six sessions, confirmed via two independent MPB search queries. Range: $244–$419, 10+ units. The high end of the range moved up from a prior $419, which suggests new higher-grade copies entered inventory while the floor held flat.

Fujifilm XF 50mm f/2 R WR at $244 on MPB, Day 6 of ATL. 5

The WR sealing on this lens is the headline spec — Fujifilm uses rubber gaskets at every external seam, including the mount flange and focus-ring shaft. On used copies, the mount gasket and focus-ring rubber are the first wear points. A cracked or displaced gasket defeats the WR claim even if the optics are clean, so run a physical check on those specific points. Optically, the XF 50/2 R WR is sharp from f/2 — no documented production defects. The sibling XF 35mm f/2 R WR is at $249 on Day 10 (10+ units) 6; two WR primes at simultaneous six-month lows for $493 combined is the most interesting combination on the X-mount board right now.

6-month range: $244–$419 on MPB. $244 is the all-time low. Shutter count: N/A (lens). Grade at $244: unconfirmed; check mount gasket specifically. Known red flags: none.

Verdict: Buy. Day 6. The floor has not drained. Inspect the WR gaskets.

Pair with: Fujifilm X-H2 at $1,549 (Pick 3) — body-plus-WR-prime under $1,800, both at new ATLs.

The Sony A7 IV settled at $1,729 (192 units) following yesterday's +$330 bounce. 8 At $330 above the $1,399 ATL that cleared in three days, it's now 31% off its $2,498 MSRP — a reasonable used price, not a floor event. Wait.

The Nikon Z 24-70/4 S held at $414–$489 (45 units). 9 The $309 window lasted three sessions and is gone. At $414 it's 58% off MSRP — fair for a full-frame Z zoom, just not exceptional.

The Panasonic S5 II hit Day 16 at $1,419, all 20 copies Like New with original packaging. 10 This is no longer a window closing — it's where the S5 II (Panasonic's full-frame L-mount hybrid, MSRP $1,997) now lives. All Like New at floor price is unusual; buyers can compare individual units without urgency. The Panasonic S 20-60mm f/3.5-5.6 is at $204 on the same page, making a full-frame L-mount entry kit at $1,623 combined.

One to watch: A Google search snippet showed the Sony A1 at $1,319 (32 units) on MPB, but the direct product page was Cloudflare-blocked and could not be independently verified. If confirmed, $1,319 for the 2021 A1 flagship (50MP, 30fps, stacked sensor) would be a significant floor break — roughly 20% of its $6,498 MSRP. It will be the top verification priority next session.