MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee ends at No. 1 with 103 wins, the last two playoff spots settled on the final day
The season's final composite puts Milwaukee on top at 103-59, ranks all 30 clubs, explains the week's risers and fallers, and lays out the 12-team bracket with FanGraphs' title odds.
The 2026 regular season ended on Sept. 27 with 12 clubs still playing and Milwaukee holding the best record in baseball at 103-59. The Brewers reached 100 wins for the first time in franchise history and finished with a +214 run differential, 13 runs clear of the Dodgers' +201. 12
Two berths were decided on the final day. Philadelphia took the last National League wild card by beating Tampa Bay 7-3, finishing two games ahead of Arizona, which had won four of its previous six. Houston won the AL West when Texas lost 6-4 at Minnesota, and the Astros' 81-81 record made them the first team to reach the postseason without an above-.500 record in a full season. 23
The board itself barely moved. Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay hold the top three places for a second week, Atlanta returns to fourth as the Yankees slip to fifth, and San Diego climbs two places to seventh on an 8-2 finish. Philadelphia, Houston and Toronto each fall two. 456
FanGraphs' projection model reads the same 12-team field differently. It gives the Dodgers a 37.0% chance to win the World Series, Milwaukee 11.8%, Cleveland 8.8% and Tampa Bay 8.7%, with every other club below 7%. 7
How the composite works
This composite averages three editorial lists: ESPN's Week 26 rankings, published Sept. 24; The Athletic's final rankings of the season, published Sept. 22; and MLB.com's rankings for the week of Sept. 20, published Sept. 21. The Athletic reports panel averages to one decimal place, so those values enter exactly as published. 456
The three lists cover different stretches, and none of them covers the season's last weekend. ESPN's ranks reflect games through Sept. 23, The Athletic's through Sept. 21, and MLB.com's through Sept. 20. MLB.com closed its regular-season series with the week-of-Sept. 20 edition, and the list it published on the morning of Sept. 28 ranks the 12 playoff teams only, so that newer list stays out of the 30-team average and appears below as a second opinion. The records, last-10 marks, run differentials and expected records in the table are the final figures from the completed season. 168
FanGraphs runs its ordinal list on a Monday-to-Sunday cycle and posts it the following Monday around midday Eastern, so the newest edition available at this hour covers games of Sept. 14–20. Those Elo ratings and Power Scores stay out of the average and serve as recent-form context. FanGraphs' playoff-odds and WAR tables, both refreshed on the morning of Sept. 28, supply the analytical checks. 7910
In the table,
RD is run differential and X-W/L is MLB's expected record, the win-loss mark a club's runs scored and allowed would normally produce. 1All 30 teams ranked
E / A / M gives each club's ESPN, The Athletic and MLB.com rank, and Move compares this composite with the previous one, which averaged ESPN's Week 25, The Athletic's Sept. 15 list and the same MLB.com list. Baltimore's Sept. 27 game at Yankee Stadium was cancelled, leaving the Orioles and Yankees at 161 games played. 45611| Rank | Team | E / A / M | Final W-L / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L | Move | Where it ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 / 1.0 / 1 456 | 103-59 / 8-2 / W5 1 | +214 / 103-59 1 | — | The best record in baseball, the first 100-win season in franchise history and the NL's No. 1 seed with a first-round bye. Jacob Misiorowski's 6.6 WAR is the highest of any pitcher. 210 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 / 2.0 / 2 456 | 100-62 / 8-2 / W3 1 | +201 / 102-60 1 | — | Won the NL West, took the No. 2 seed and carry baseball's shortest title odds at 37.0%. Ohtani, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker all finished the season in the lineup. 47 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 / 4.0 / 3 456 | 98-64 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +86 / 90-72 1 | — | Clinched the AL East on Sept. 22, the franchise's first division title since 2021, and took the AL's best record and No. 1 seed at 55-26 at home. 34 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 4 / 4.5 / 4 456 | 94-68 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +116 / 93-69 1 | ▲1 | Won the NL East and the No. 3 seed, and host Philadelphia in the wild-card round. Chris Sale finished at 5.8 WAR. 210 |
| 5 | New York Yankees | 5 / 4.5 / 5 456 | 93-68 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +138 / 96-65 1 | ▼1 | Took the AL's first wild card and the No. 4 seed at 93 wins, five games behind the Rays. Their Sept. 27 game with Baltimore was cancelled. 311 |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | 6 / 5.3 / 6 456 | 89-73 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +147 / 95-67 1 | — | The NL's No. 5 seed and a first-round trip to San Diego. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads every player at 10.6 WAR. 310 |
| 7 | San Diego Padres | 7 / 8.0 / 8 456 | 91-71 / 8-2 / W2 1 | +41 / 85-77 1 | ▲2 | Closed 8-2 to take the top NL wild card and the No. 4 seed, and hosts the Cubs. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit four home runs in a week in September. 39 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 9 / 7.8 / 7 456 | 87-75 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +78 / 90-72 1 | — | The AL's No. 5 seed and a Wild Card Series rematch at Yankee Stadium. Chad Tracy's interim tag came off with a three-year contract. 24 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies | 8 / 8.8 / 9 456 | 88-74 / 4-6 / W1 1 | +15 / 83-79 1 | ▼2 | Clinched the last NL spot with a 7-3 win over the Rays on the final day, then drew a trip to Atlanta as the No. 6 seed. 3 |
| 10 | Cleveland Guardians | 10 / 10.7 / 10 456 | 85-77 / 8-2 / L1 1 | +11 / 82-80 1 | — | Won the AL Central by one game over the White Sox and took the AL's No. 2 seed and a bye. Parker Messick finished his rookie season at 4.9 WAR. 210 |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | 12 / 11.7 / 11 456 | 84-78 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +56 / 87-75 1 | — | Finished a game behind Cleveland in the AL Central and opens the postseason at Houston as the No. 6 seed, a year after losing 100-plus games for a third straight season. 23 |
| 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 / 11.7 / 13 456 | 86-76 / 6-4 / L2 1 | +9 / 82-80 1 | — | Finished two games behind Philadelphia for the last NL spot. Corbin Burnes went on the injured list on Sept. 25 with right shoulder inflammation. 112 |
| 13 | Texas Rangers | 14 / 14.0 / 12 456 | 80-82 / 4-6 / L1 1 | -46 / 76-86 1 | ▲2 | Shared the AL West lead into the final weekend, then lost the division to Houston on the last day. Josh Jung broke his right hand on Sept. 25. 312 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 13 / 14.5 / 16 456 | 82-80 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +28 / 84-78 1 | ▲2 | A first winning season since 2018. Paul Skenes finished with a 3.91 ERA against a 3.27 expected ERA. 14 |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 15 / 15.8 / 14 456 | 81-81 / 5-5 / W2 1 | -32 / 78-84 1 | ▼2 | Won the AL West on the final day at 81-81, the worst full-season winning percentage in Houston since 2014, and hosts the White Sox as the No. 3 seed. 28 |
| 16 | Toronto Blue Jays | 16 / 16.3 / 15 456 | 79-83 / 4-6 / W1 1 | -46 / 76-86 1 | ▼2 | Missed the postseason as the offense fell from a 112 wRC+ to 95, tied for 24th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished with nine home runs and a .695 OPS. 4 |
| 17 | Miami Marlins | 17 / 17.0 / 18 456 | 80-82 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +3 / 81-81 1 | — | Finished two games under .500 with a positive run differential and an 81-81 expected record. Otto Lopez ended the season at 5.8 WAR. 110 |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | 18 / 18.2 / 17 456 | 79-82 / 6-4 / L1 1 | -21 / 78-83 1 | — | Missed the postseason for a second straight year. Pete Alonso hit his 40th home run on Sept. 21. 411 |
| 19 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19 / 18.0 / 20 456 | 77-85 / 2-8 / L4 1 | -29 / 78-84 1 | — | Lost four straight to close. MLB.com credited a strong lineup season and blamed a bullpen collapse for the record. 6 |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 20 / 18.7 / 19 456 | 76-86 / 4-6 / L1 1 | +71 / 89-73 1 | — | Finished 13 games under an expected record of 89-73 with a +71 run differential, and went 21-51 in one- and two-run games. 14 |
| 21 | Washington Nationals | 21 / 20.2 / 21 456 | 77-85 / 6-4 / W1 1 | +6 / 82-80 1 | — | Outscored the field across the season, produced an 82-80 expected record and finished five games under .500 on a 4.49 second-half ERA, 25th in the majors. 14 |
| 22 | Seattle Mariners | 22 / 23.0 / 22 456 | 76-86 / 6-4 / W2 1 | -58 / 75-87 1 | ▲2 | Won six of its last ten to close a season ESPN called the most disappointing in franchise history, one year after a 116-win season. 14 |
Hmm. Replace that with a corrected row; see below.
| 23 | New York Mets | 23 / 22.7 / 23 456 | 74-88 / 5-5 / L1 1 | -32 / 78-84 1 | ▼1 | Rookies Carson Benge and Nolan McLean were the season's main gains, and Andy Green's interim tag came off with a three-year deal. 4 |
| 24 | Minnesota Twins | 24 / 22.2 / 24 456 | 77-85 / 6-4 / W1 1 | -58 / 75-87 1 | ▼1 | Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez all debuted and keep their rookie eligibility for 2027. 6 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds | 25 / 26.2 / 25 456 | 75-87 / 4-6 / L1 1 | -160 / 65-97 1 | — | Won 10 more games than a -160 run differential would normally produce. Elly De La Cruz finished at 6.4 WAR. 110 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 26 / 26.0 / 26 456 | 69-93 / 2-8 / W1 1 | -120 / 69-93 1 | — | Matched an expected record of 69-93 exactly. Bobby Witt Jr. finished second among all players at 7.0 WAR. 110 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 27 / 26.3 / 27 456 | 65-97 / 2-8 / L5 1 | -91 / 72-90 1 | — | Lost five straight to close, seven games below its expected record. Rafael Devers' revival was the season's clearest gain. 14 |
| 28 | Athletics | 28 / 28.2 / 29 456 | 64-98 / 3-7 / L2 1 | -238 / 60-102 1 | — | Finished with the majors' worst run differential, 46 runs clear of Colorado's, on a 5.43 staff ERA. 14 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 29 / 28.3 / 28 456 | 62-100 / 4-6 / L2 1 | -97 / 71-91 1 | — | Reached 100 losses for the first time in franchise history, nine games below its expected record, in Arte Moreno's final season as owner. 14 |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | 30 / 29.5 / 30 456 | 58-104 / 2-8 / L1 1 | -192 / 64-98 1 | — | A fourth straight 100-loss season, six games under an expected record of 64-98. 14 |
Wait — I need to fix the Seattle row (I left a stray note). Also "one year after a 116-win season" — hmm, ESPN said Seattle fell one win short of the franchise's first World Series appearance a year ago, i.e., 2025 they were in the ALCS. 116 wins is wrong — I invented that. Remove. Let me rewrite Seattle's cell: "Won six of its last ten to close a season ESPN called the most disappointing in franchise history, a year after coming within one win of the World Series."
Hmm, "within one win of the World Series appearance" is from ESPN. Good.
OK let me now write the final file properly, carefully, without the stray line.
Let me be efficient and write the whole file in one go.
Also decide: should I include 4-6 bullets in the move section. Yes.
Let me now produce the final content.md.
One more check on the row for #22 Seattle: E 22 / A 23.0 / M 22 → avg 22.33 → rank 22. Move ▲2. Good.
Also #12 Arizona: E 11 / A 11.7 / M 13 → 11.9 → rank 12. Move —. Hmm: previously ARI was 12, now 12 → —. Good.
#11 CWS: E 12 / A 11.7 / M 11 → 11.57 → 11. Previously 11 → —. Good.
#13 TEX: 14/14.0/12 → 13.33 → 13. Previously 15 → ▲2. Good.
#14 PIT: 13/14.5/16 → 14.5 → 14. Previously 16 → ▲2. Good.
#15 HOU: 15/15.8/14 → 14.93 → 15. Previously 13 → ▼2. Good.
#16 TOR: 16/16.3/15 → 15.77 → 16. Previously 14 → ▼2. Good.
#17 MIA: 17/17.0/18 → 17.33 → 17. Previously 17 → —. Good.
#18 BAL: 18/18.2/17 → 17.73 → 18. Previously 18 → —. Good.
#19 STL: 19/18.0/20 → 19.0 → 19. Previously 19 → —. Good.
#20 DET: 20/18.7/19 → 19.23 → 20. Previously 20 → —. Good.
#21 WSH: 21/20.2/21 → 20.73 → 21. Previously 21 → —. Good.
#23 NYM: 23/22.7/23 → 22.9 → 23. Previously 22 → ▼1. Good.
#24 MIN: 24/22.2/24 → 23.4 → 24. Previously 23 → ▼1. Good.
#25 CIN: 25/26.2/25 → 25.4 → 25. Previously 25 → —. Good.
#26 KC: 26/26.0/26 → 26. Previously 26 → —. Good.
#27 SF: 27/26.3/27 → 26.77 → 27. Previously 27 → —. Good.
#28 ATH: 28/28.2/29 → 28.4 → 28. Previously 28 → —. Good.
#29 LAA: 29/28.3/28 → 28.43 → 29. Previously 29 → —. Good.
#30 COL: 30/29.5/30 → 29.83 → 30. Previously 30 → —. Good.
Good. 11 clubs moved.
Hmm, one issue: ranking #28 ATH above #29 LAA though LAA's average is higher — no wait: ATH 28.4 < LAA 28.43. So ATH ranks 28. Correct.
Now write. Let me produce the final content.md.<｜end▁of▁thinking｜>
<｜｜DSML｜｜ calls>
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<｜｜DSML｜｜ parameter name="content" string="true">The 2026 regular season ended on Sept. 27 with 12 clubs still playing and Milwaukee holding the best record in baseball at 103-59. The Brewers reached 100 wins for the first time in franchise history and finished with a +214 run differential, 13 runs clear of the Dodgers' +201. 12
Two berths were decided on the final day. Philadelphia took the last National League wild card by beating Tampa Bay 7-3, finishing two games ahead of Arizona, which had won four of its previous six. Houston won the AL West when Texas lost 6-4 at Minnesota, and the Astros' 81-81 record made them the first team to reach the postseason without an above-.500 record in a full season. 23
The board itself barely moved. Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay hold the top three places for a second week, Atlanta returns to fourth as the Yankees slip to fifth, and San Diego climbs two places to seventh on an 8-2 finish. Philadelphia, Houston and Toronto each fall two. 456
FanGraphs' projection model reads the same 12-team field differently. It gives the Dodgers a 37.0% chance to win the World Series, Milwaukee 11.8%, Cleveland 8.8% and Tampa Bay 8.7%, with every other club below 7%. 7
How the composite works
This composite averages three editorial lists: ESPN's Week 26 rankings, published Sept. 24; The Athletic's final rankings of the season, published Sept. 22; and MLB.com's rankings for the week of Sept. 20, published Sept. 21. The Athletic reports panel averages to one decimal place, so those values enter exactly as published. 456
The three lists cover different stretches, and none of them covers the season's last weekend. ESPN's ranks reflect games through Sept. 23, The Athletic's through Sept. 21, and MLB.com's through Sept. 20. MLB.com closed its regular-season series with the week-of-Sept. 20 edition, and the list it published on the morning of Sept. 28 ranks the 12 playoff teams only, so that newer list stays out of the 30-team average and appears below as a second opinion. The records, last-10 marks, run differentials and expected records in the table are the final figures from the completed season. 168
FanGraphs runs its ordinal list on a Monday-to-Sunday cycle and posts it the following Monday around midday Eastern, so the newest edition available at this hour covers games of Sept. 14–20. Those Elo ratings and Power Scores stay out of the average and serve as recent-form context. FanGraphs' playoff-odds and WAR tables, both refreshed on the morning of Sept. 28, supply the analytical checks. 7910
In the table,
RD is run differential and X-W/L is MLB's expected record, the win-loss mark a club's runs scored and allowed would normally produce. 1All 30 teams ranked
E / A / M gives each club's ESPN, The Athletic and MLB.com rank, and Move compares this composite with the previous one, which averaged ESPN's Week 25, The Athletic's Sept. 15 list and the same MLB.com list. Baltimore's Sept. 27 game at Yankee Stadium was cancelled, leaving the Orioles and Yankees at 161 games played. 45611| Rank | Team | E / A / M | Final W-L / L10 / streak | RD / X-W/L | Move | Where it ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1 / 1.0 / 1 456 | 103-59 / 8-2 / W5 1 | +214 / 103-59 1 | — | The best record in baseball, the first 100-win season in franchise history, and the NL's No. 1 seed with a first-round bye. Jacob Misiorowski's 6.6 WAR is the highest of any pitcher. 210 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 / 2.0 / 2 456 | 100-62 / 8-2 / W3 1 | +201 / 102-60 1 | — | Won the NL West, took the No. 2 seed, and carry the shortest title odds in the field at 37.0%. Ohtani, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker all finished the season in the lineup. 47 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 / 4.0 / 3 456 | 98-64 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +86 / 90-72 1 | — | Clinched the AL East on Sept. 22, the franchise's first division title since 2021, and took the AL's best record and No. 1 seed on a 55-26 home mark. 34 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 4 / 4.5 / 4 456 | 94-68 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +116 / 93-69 1 | ▲1 | Won the NL East and the No. 3 seed, and host Philadelphia in the wild-card round. Chris Sale finished at 5.8 WAR. 210 |
| 5 | New York Yankees | 5 / 4.5 / 5 456 | 93-68 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +138 / 96-65 1 | ▼1 | Took the AL's first wild card and the No. 4 seed at 93 wins, five games behind the Rays. Their Sept. 27 game with Baltimore was cancelled. 311 |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | 6 / 5.3 / 6 456 | 89-73 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +147 / 95-67 1 | — | The NL's No. 5 seed and a first-round trip to San Diego. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads every player at 10.6 WAR. 310 |
| 7 | San Diego Padres | 7 / 8.0 / 8 456 | 91-71 / 8-2 / W2 1 | +41 / 85-77 1 | ▲2 | Closed 8-2 for the top NL wild card and the No. 4 seed, and host the Cubs. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit four home runs in a single week of September. 39 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 9 / 7.8 / 7 456 | 87-75 / 5-5 / L1 1 | +78 / 90-72 1 | — | The AL's No. 5 seed and a Wild Card Series rematch at Yankee Stadium. Chad Tracy's interim tag came off with a three-year contract. 24 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies | 8 / 8.8 / 9 456 | 88-74 / 4-6 / W1 1 | +15 / 83-79 1 | ▼2 | Clinched the last NL spot with a 7-3 win over the Rays on the final day, and drew a trip to Atlanta as the No. 6 seed. 3 |
| 10 | Cleveland Guardians | 10 / 10.7 / 10 456 | 85-77 / 8-2 / L1 1 | +11 / 82-80 1 | — | Won the AL Central by one game over the White Sox and took the AL's No. 2 seed and a bye. Parker Messick finished his rookie season at 4.9 WAR. 210 |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | 12 / 11.7 / 11 456 | 84-78 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +56 / 87-75 1 | — | Finished a game behind Cleveland in the AL Central and opens the postseason at Houston as the No. 6 seed, after three straight seasons of 100-plus losses. 23 |
| 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 / 11.7 / 13 456 | 86-76 / 6-4 / L2 1 | +9 / 82-80 1 | — | Finished two games behind Philadelphia for the last NL spot. Corbin Burnes went on the injured list on Sept. 25 with right shoulder inflammation. 112 |
| 13 | Texas Rangers | 14 / 14.0 / 12 456 | 80-82 / 4-6 / L1 1 | -46 / 76-86 1 | ▲2 | Shared the AL West lead into the final weekend, then lost the division to Houston on the last day. Josh Jung broke his right hand on Sept. 25. 312 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 13 / 14.5 / 16 456 | 82-80 / 7-3 / W1 1 | +28 / 84-78 1 | ▲2 | Closed 7-3 for a first winning season since 2018. Paul Skenes finished with a 3.91 ERA against a 3.27 expected ERA. 14 |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 15 / 15.8 / 14 456 | 81-81 / 5-5 / W2 1 | -32 / 78-84 1 | ▼2 | Won the AL West on the final day at 81-81, Houston's lowest full-season winning percentage since 2014, and hosts the White Sox as the No. 3 seed. 28 |
| 16 | Toronto Blue Jays | 16 / 16.3 / 15 456 | 79-83 / 4-6 / W1 1 | -46 / 76-86 1 | ▼2 | Missed the postseason as the offense fell from a 112 wRC+ to 95, tied for 24th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished with nine home runs and a .695 OPS. 4 |
| 17 | Miami Marlins | 17 / 17.0 / 18 456 | 80-82 / 5-5 / W1 1 | +3 / 81-81 1 | — | Finished two games under .500 with a positive run differential and an 81-81 expected record. Otto Lopez ended the season at 5.8 WAR. 110 |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | 18 / 18.2 / 17 456 | 79-82 / 6-4 / L1 1 | -21 / 78-83 1 | — | Missed the postseason for a second straight year. Pete Alonso hit his 40th home run on Sept. 21. 411 |
| 19 | St. Louis Cardinals | 19 / 18.0 / 20 456 | 77-85 / 2-8 / L4 1 | -29 / 78-84 1 | — | Lost four straight to close. MLB.com credited a strong lineup season and blamed a bullpen collapse for the record. 6 |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 20 / 18.7 / 19 456 | 76-86 / 4-6 / L1 1 | +71 / 89-73 1 | — | Finished 13 games under an expected record of 89-73 with a +71 run differential, and went 21-51 in one- and two-run games. 14 |
| 21 | Washington Nationals | 21 / 20.2 / 21 456 | 77-85 / 6-4 / W1 1 | +6 / 82-80 1 | — | Outscored the field across the season, produced an 82-80 expected record, and finished five games under .500 on a 4.49 second-half ERA, 25th in the majors. 14 |
| 22 | Seattle Mariners | 22 / 23.0 / 22 456 | 76-86 / 6-4 / W2 1 | -58 / 75-87 1 | ▲2 | Won six of its last ten to close a season ESPN called the most disappointing in franchise history, one year on from a League Championship Series that ended a win short of the World Series. 14 |
| 23 | New York Mets | 23 / 22.7 / 23 456 | 74-88 / 5-5 / L1 1 | -32 / 78-84 1 | ▼1 | Rookies Carson Benge and Nolan McLean were the season's main gains, and Andy Green's interim tag came off with a three-year deal. 4 |
| 24 | Minnesota Twins | 24 / 22.2 / 24 456 | 77-85 / 6-4 / W1 1 | -58 / 75-87 1 | ▼1 | Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez all debuted and keep their rookie eligibility for 2027. 6 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds | 25 / 26.2 / 25 456 | 75-87 / 4-6 / L1 1 | -160 / 65-97 1 | — | Won 10 more games than a -160 run differential would normally produce. Elly De La Cruz finished at 6.4 WAR. 110 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 26 / 26.0 / 26 456 | 69-93 / 2-8 / W1 1 | -120 / 69-93 1 | — | Matched an expected record of 69-93 exactly. Bobby Witt Jr. finished second among all players at 7.0 WAR. 110 |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | 27 / 26.3 / 27 456 | 65-97 / 2-8 / L5 1 | -91 / 72-90 1 | — | Lost five straight to close, seven games below its expected record. Rafael Devers' revival was the season's clearest gain. 14 |
| 28 | Athletics | 28 / 28.2 / 29 456 | 64-98 / 3-7 / L2 1 | -238 / 60-102 1 | — | Finished with the majors' worst run differential, 46 runs clear of Colorado's, on a 5.43 staff ERA. 14 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 29 / 28.3 / 28 456 | 62-100 / 4-6 / L2 1 | -97 / 71-91 1 | — | Reached 100 losses for the first time in franchise history, nine games below its expected record, in Arte Moreno's final season as owner. 14 |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | 30 / 29.5 / 30 456 | 58-104 / 2-8 / L1 1 | -192 / 64-98 1 | — | A fourth straight 100-loss season, six games under an expected record of 64-98. 14 |
Where the week moved the board
Eleven clubs changed places, and every move stayed within two spots. San Diego, Texas, Pittsburgh and Seattle are the risers; Philadelphia, Houston and Toronto give up two places each.
- San Diego, up two to No. 7. The Padres won 13 of 14 at one point in September and closed 8-2, which moved them past Philadelphia on this board and gave them the top NL wild card and a home series against the Cubs. FanGraphs' Sept. 14–20 board had already lifted them four places, the largest jump on it. 349
- Texas, up two to No. 13. ESPN and MLB.com both kept the Rangers inside the top 15 while they shared the AL West lead in the days the lists were written. The final weekend went the other way: three losses in four games, a 6-4 defeat at Minnesota on the last day, and no October baseball. 346
- Pittsburgh, up two to No. 14. The Pirates closed 7-3 to reach 82-80, their first winning season since 2018, with a +28 run differential against an 84-78 expected record. 14
- Seattle, up two to No. 22. The Mariners won six of their last ten, and the panel lists still place the roster in the low 20s. The season itself ended 76-86, a game better than the club's expected record and well short of the 90-win pace the roster was built for. 146
- Philadelphia, down two to No. 9. A 2-6 stretch in late September left the Phillies needing the final day to clinch, and it cost them a place on all three lists and home field in the first round. 346
- Houston, down two to No. 15. The Astros went 3-7 across a ten-game stretch and finished with a -32 run differential, then won the division anyway on the final day. 24
- Toronto, down two to No. 16. The Blue Jays' offense fell from a 112 wRC+ last season to 95, tied for 24th in the majors, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished the first year of a 14-year extension with nine home runs and a .695 OPS. 4
The analytics check
FanGraphs' final WAR leaderboard, updated at 9:16 a.m. ET on Sept. 28, puts a Cub on top of every player in the sport. Pete Crow-Armstrong's 10.6 WAR leads Bobby Witt Jr. (7.0), Yordan Alvarez (6.8), Jacob Misiorowski (6.6), Shohei Ohtani (6.6), Elly De La Cruz (6.4), Cristopher Sánchez (6.2) and Cam Schlittler (6.2). The Athletic's panel calls Crow-Armstrong a near-lock for MVP. 510
Run differential and the expected records it produces split the board in several places.
- Detroit finished 13 games under an expected record of 89-73 with a +71 run differential, the widest such gap in the majors, and went 21-51 in one- and two-run games. 14
- Cincinnati finished 10 games over an expected record of 65-97 on a -160 run differential. 1
- The Angels finished nine games under an expected record of 71-91 on the way to a 100-loss season. 1
- Washington outscored its opponents by six runs, produced an 82-80 expected record, and finished 77-85. 14
- Houston won the AL West at 81-81 with a -32 differential and a 78-84 expected record, while San Diego reached 91-71 on +41 against an 85-77 expected mark. 17
- Milwaukee matched its expected record exactly at 103-59, and Cleveland finished three games above its own at 85-77. 1
The one place the board and the numbers part company is at the very top. The composite makes Milwaukee the best team in baseball; FanGraphs' model makes the Dodgers a 37.0% favorite for the World Series against Milwaukee's 11.8%, and puts Cleveland (8.8%) and Tampa Bay (8.7%) ahead of both wild-card hosts. 37
Injury watch: October availability
The final week left a short list of availability questions for the 12 clubs still playing. These are the items each club reported.
- Rays (AL No. 1). Shane McClanahan is unlikely to start through at least the Division Series because of left forearm tightness, and Garrett Cleavinger has advanced to bullpen sessions after the same diagnosis. 12
- Guardians (AL No. 2). Cleveland came through the week with no fresh injury to a projected postseason regular. Rookie ace Parker Messick finishes with at least 50 more innings than his previous career high. 412
- Astros (AL No. 3). Daulton Varsho went on the injured list with left wrist inflammation and sees a hand specialist on Sept. 29, and Steven Okert's right hamstring strain could push his return into later in the postseason. 12
- Yankees (AL No. 4). Aaron Judge has a moderate right calf strain, received a platelet-rich plasma injection, and had yet to resume hitting as of Sept. 24, with Aaron Boone saying the club expects to open the postseason without him. Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham took live at-bats on Sept. 25, and Clarke Schmidt's right biceps neuritis makes the ALCS the earliest he could return. 412
- Red Sox (AL No. 5). Willson Contreras sat out through Sept. 25 with a bruised right hand and told reporters he could not swing a bat on Sept. 23 and 24, Mickey Gasper suffered what the club called a significant right biceps injury, and Garrett Crochet threw a second live batting practice session of the week on Sept. 26. 412
- White Sox (AL No. 6). Luis Castillo went on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement, and Chase Meidroth was close to returning from left hamstring soreness. 12
- Brewers (NL No. 1). Joey Ortiz had an MRI on his right knee on Sept. 25, Andrew Vaughn went on the injured list with an illness but expects to be ready, and Brandon Woodruff's right shoulder was scheduled for a follow-up evaluation. 12
- Dodgers (NL No. 2). Blake Treinen is out for the rest of the season with a right shoulder injury, while Edgardo Henriquez could return from lower back discomfort during the postseason. 12
- Braves (NL No. 3). Martín Pérez went on the injured list with lower back inflammation. 12
- Padres (NL No. 4). Miguel Andujar was ready to be activated from a right wrist fracture as of Sept. 25, with his postseason status still open. 12
- Cubs (NL No. 5). Alex Bregman suffered facial fractures from a foul ball and stayed off the injured list on the club's expectation that he could be ready for the playoffs, while Kevin Gausman played catch on Sept. 25 as the Cubs weigh him for a postseason start. 412
- Phillies (NL No. 6). An MRI showed what the club called a serious left ankle sprain for Luis Arraez, Jesús Luzardo could be activated to pitch out of the bullpen, and Orion Kerkering was sent to the minors after struggling. 412
Among the clubs whose seasons ended on Sept. 27, Josh Jung broke his right hand and is out for the season, Oneil Cruz left a Sept. 26 game with a left knee injury and awaited an MRI, and Andrés Muñoz's right knee inflammation ended his season. 12
What the final week set up
The bracket runs through four rounds. The top two division winners in each league take byes into the Division Series, and the other four clubs in each league play best-of-three Wild Card Series that start Tuesday, with the higher seed hosting every game. 3
| Seed | Team | Record | First round | FanGraphs title odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 98-64 3 | Bye | 8.7% 7 |
| AL 2 | Cleveland Guardians | 85-77 3 | Bye | 8.8% 7 |
| AL 3 | Houston Astros | 81-81 3 | Hosts White Sox | 3.7% 7 |
| AL 4 | New York Yankees | 93-68 3 | Hosts Red Sox | 6.8% 7 |
| AL 5 | Boston Red Sox | 87-75 3 | At Yankees | 5.6% 7 |
| AL 6 | Chicago White Sox | 84-78 3 | At Astros | 1.2% 7 |
| NL 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 103-59 3 | Bye | 11.8% 7 |
| NL 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100-62 3 | Bye | 37.0% 7 |
| NL 3 | Atlanta Braves | 94-68 3 | Hosts Phillies | 3.5% 7 |
| NL 4 | San Diego Padres | 91-71 3 | Hosts Cubs | 2.6% 7 |
| NL 5 | Chicago Cubs | 89-73 3 | At Padres | 4.7% 7 |
| NL 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 88-74 3 | At Braves | 5.6% 7 |
The Division Series run Oct. 3–10 in the American League and Oct. 3–9 in the National League. The Championship Series begin Oct. 11 in the NL and Oct. 12 in the AL, and the World Series runs Oct. 23–31. 3
A few of the first-round pairings carry their own history. Boston returns to Yankee Stadium for the same Wild Card Series matchup that ended its 2025 season, this time with a Boston club that went 40-26 in the second half behind Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle. 24 Houston opens at home at 81-81 against a White Sox club that reached the postseason for the first time since 2021, a year after losing 100-plus games for a third straight season, and will start the series without Luis Castillo. 212 San Diego hosts the Cubs in what is the Padres' third straight postseason, a first for the franchise. 2
References
- 1MLB Standings
mlb.com
- 2
- 3
- 4ESPN MLB Power Rankings Week 26
espn.com
- 5The Athletic MLB Power Rankings
nytimes.com
- 6
- 7FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds
fangraphs.com
- 8
- 9FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 14–20
blogs.fangraphs.com
- 10FanGraphs WAR Leaderboards
fangraphs.com
- 11MLB Stats API final standings
statsapi.mlb.com
- 12MLB injury updates
mlb.com
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