Geopolitics Daily Brief — August 13, 2026: Taiwan rehearses blockade response as Hormuz risk persists

1. New Zealand says China-linked observatory sought satellite-tracking site

• New Zealand’s security agency said it disrupted an attempt by China’s Purple Mountain Observatory to install ground-based satellite-tracking infrastructure through a local company that was likely unaware the equipment could collect intelligence of military value. 1
• The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service said China was the only country it had detected conducting espionage “at scale” and described Chinese intelligence services as its most active espionage threat; Beijing’s embassy and the observatory did not respond to requests for comment. 1
• The agency said New Zealand’s South Pacific location is attractive for systems tracking satellites, space debris and scientific data, while cautioning that the finding should not end legitimate trade or research cooperation with Chinese entities. 1

2. Ukraine says it has retaken 745 square kilometres on the southeastern front

• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces had recaptured 745 square kilometres (288 square miles) of Russian-occupied land this year across Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. 2
• Zelenskiy said 26 settlements along an approximately 60-kilometre stretch where the three regions meet had returned to Kyiv’s control; the open-source group DeepState said 19 settlements had been restored and Russian forces pushed back in six more. 2
• Reuters could not independently verify video released by Ukraine’s General Staff, while analysts cited in the report said Russia’s battlefield advances had slowed across much of the front even as its forces continued to approach key cities in eastern Donetsk. 2

3. A tanker leak adds environmental and shipping risk off Oman

• A tanker carrying nearly 1 million barrels of Russian crude has been leaking for more than two months near Oman’s Hallaniyat Islands Nature Reserve, according to satellite analysis and reporting reviewed by Reuters. 3
• Oman put the slick at roughly 390 square kilometres, while Greenpeace’s satellite analysis last week estimated about 600 square kilometres; Reuters reported no clear sign of activity to stabilise the tanker. 3
• The spill is unfolding alongside wider maritime violence: Reuters cited the International Maritime Organization’s count of 65 commercial ships attacked in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman since March 1, with at least 17 seafarers killed. 3

4. Oil dips, but Hormuz uncertainty keeps a floor under prices

• Brent futures fell 11 cents, or 0.12%, to $88.87 a barrel by 0624 GMT on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 16 cents, or 0.19%, to $83.11. 4
• Reuters reported no progress in talks to revive an interim U.S.-Iran agreement and no change in the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while navigation risks were making actual regional supply levels harder to assess. 4
• U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million in the week ended August 7, against expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw; OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day. 4

5. Taiwan runs its first joint anti-blockade naval and coast-guard drill

• Taiwan’s armed forces carried out an anti-blockade drill during the Han Kuang war games, using the navy and coast guard to simulate escorting a merchant ship, Taiwan’s defence ministry said. 5
• The navy worked with coast-guard vessels on escort and security duties while a minesweeper cleared a safe navigation channel and guided the simulated merchant vessel to port; both destination ports were on Taiwan’s east coast. 5
• Taiwan’s coast guard said it was the first time it had worked with the navy on an anti-blockade drill; the report said China had begun what it calls “law enforcement” patrols off Taiwan’s east coast in June. 5