
2026-08-18 14:30|金价4397美元,长端收益率走高
本窗口记录金银价格回落、美国与日本长端收益率走高,以及美伊停火到期后的伊朗强硬姿态,并逐项保留未核验的ETF、交易所库存与官方实际收益率缺口。
{
"schema_version": 1,
"as_of": "2026-08-18 14:30:00+08:00",
"window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T03:30:00Z",
"window_end_utc": "2026-08-18T06:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"events": [
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-gold-silver-price",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"title": "现货金跌至 4397.42 美元,现货银跌 0.7%",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T01:05:23.096Z",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T06:24:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 98,
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T01:05:23.096Z",
"source_event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T06:24:00Z",
"spot_gold": "4397.42 USD per ounce",
"spot_gold_change": "-0.4%",
"US_gold_futures_December": "4452.90 USD per ounce",
"US_gold_futures_change": "-0.5%",
"spot_silver": "65.32 USD per ounce",
"spot_silver_change": "-0.7%",
"market_pricing": "A September quarter-point hike had flipped to a nearly 65% chance of a hold after unexpected July job losses, lower-than-expected consumer price inflation and weaker retail sales",
"Fed_minutes_schedule": "Wednesday"
},
"transmission_chain": "金银现货与期货同步走弱→较高美债收益率抬高无息资产机会成本且利率预期仍受关注→AU 与 AG 短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续同一交易时段金银价格收复并稳定在本次快照之上、美国长端收益率回落,或新的宏观数据改变当前利率定价时,本次短线方向信号失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-us-long-yield-5321",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "美国 30 年期国债收益率盘中升至 5.321%",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T04:37:58.709Z",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 96,
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:37:58.709Z",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:42:12.144Z",
"source_event_date": "2026-08-18",
"source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文仅说明周二盘中,未给出 5.321%高点的精确时刻,因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。",
"US_30Y_Treasury_yield_intraday_high": "5.321%",
"US_30Y_Treasury_yield_change": "+1.1 basis points",
"US_30Y_Treasury_yield_high_since": "June 2007",
"US_10Y_Treasury_yield": "4.7259%",
"US_10Y_Treasury_yield_change": "+0.4 basis points"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国 30 年期与 10 年期国债收益率走高→持有无息贵金属的相对机会成本上升→AU 与 AG 估值承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续美国长端收益率跌回本次盘中高点下方且金银未继续走弱,或新的数据使利率上行预期反转时,本次收益率方向信号失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-jgb-yield-2945",
"event_type": "real_rate",
"title": "日本 10 年期国债收益率触及 2.945%三十年高位",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T00:16:23.856Z",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:15:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 94,
"direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1},
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T00:16:23.856Z",
"source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:41:56.015Z",
"source_event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:15:00Z",
"ten_year_JGB_yield": "2.935% as of 0415 GMT",
"ten_year_JGB_yield_change": "+1.5 basis points",
"ten_year_JGB_intraday_high": "2.945%",
"ten_year_JGB_high_since": "September 1996",
"five_year_JGB_auction_demand": "highest level since June 2025"
},
"transmission_chain": "日本 10 年期国债收益率触及 1996 年以来高位→全球长端利率与通胀担忧的外溢信号增强→AU 与 AG 面临相对利率压力",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续日本及其他主要市场长端收益率回落、通胀担忧降温,或金银对全球利率上行不再作出负向反应时,本次外溢信号失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-10-year-government-bond-yield-rises-three-decade-peak-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-10-year-government-bond-yield-rises-three-decade-peak-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-10-year-government-bond-yield-rises-three-decade-peak-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-10-year-government-bond-yield-rises-three-decade-peak-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-iran-offensive-posture",
"event_type": "geopolitics",
"title": "美伊临时停火到期后伊朗称将转入全面进攻",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T04:37:58.709Z",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 91,
"direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1},
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T04:37:58.709Z",
"source_event_date": "2026-08-17",
"source_event_time_note": "Reuters 称临时停火于周一到期,并未给出到期的精确时刻,因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。",
"temporary_US_Iran_ceasefire": "expired on Monday",
"Iranian_posture": "a senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran would shift to a fully offensive military posture",
"US_position": "Washington ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire agreement",
"source_context": "Reuters Morning Bid described the development as increasing concern about inflation and energy supply disruption"
},
"transmission_chain": "美伊临时停火到期且伊朗官员称将转入全面进攻态势→中东能源运输与地缘不确定性上升→AU 避险溢价和 AG 地缘风险溢价获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "美国与伊朗达成并执行新的停火或永久协议、能源运输恢复稳定,或后续一手消息否认全面进攻部署时,本事件的地缘传导失效。",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-08-18/))"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
],
"coverage_gaps": [
{
"scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走 iShares 官方 CSV 接口和 SPDR 官方 CSV 直链;iShares 接口返回 HTML 产品页面壳且没有窗口内持仓字段,SPDR 直链返回 404;未取得带窗口内发布时间证据的 GLD 或 SLV 每日持仓变动,因此未填 ETF 事件。"
},
{
"scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走 CME 官方 Daily Bulletin 的 Section40_Metals_Futures.pdf 与 Section40.pdf 两条新文件入口,均返回 HTTP 403;未取得窗口内 COMEX 黄金或白银库存分级数字,因此未以交割通知、行情页或搜索摘要替代。"
},
{
"scope": "SHFE 仓单与 SGE 出入库",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走 SGE 官方 quotation_daily_new 的 2026-08-18 详情入口,返回查询页面壳且没有 AU/AG 库存、仓单或出入库数据行;SHFE 官方 registered_warrant 入口返回人机识别页,未取得窗口内仓单数字。"
},
{
"scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值",
"status": "unverified",
"reason": "本轮改走美国财政部官方 XML 接口;最新返回行是 2026-08-17,5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 实际收益率为 2.13%/2.27%/2.44%/2.84%/3.06%,该行发布时间为 2026-08-17T15:59:01Z,未出现 2026-08-18 新行,故不纳入本窗口事件。"
}
]
}

贵金属结构化事件流
把影响黄金白银的场外事件压缩成严格 JSON 事实流,供程序化交易系统消费;不含技术分析与操作建议。
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