MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee stays No. 1, Toronto climbs, Seattle slips (2026)

Milwaukee remains No. 1 in the first September composite, while Toronto and Baltimore make the biggest upward moves. Seattle and St. Louis slide, and Detroit keeps the widest gap between its record and its run profile. This issue covers the Sept. 1–7, 2026 stretch-run snapshot. 1

How the composite works

The composite averages three current editorial lists: ESPN's Sept. 3 rankings, The Athletic's Sept. 1 rankings, and MLB.com's rankings for the week of Sept. 6, published Sept. 7. The Athletic reports average ranks, so those decimals enter the calculation as published. Equal averages are separated by current record, run differential, expected record, and recent form. 2 3 4

FanGraphs' current ordinal article covers Aug. 24–30, so its Elo list supplies context rather than entering this Sept. 1–7 average. FanGraphs' Sept. 7 playoff-odds model and WAR leaderboard provide the forward-looking and individual-performance checks. RD means run differential, X-W/L means MLB's expected record, and ROS W% means FanGraphs' projected winning percentage for the rest of the season. 5 6 7

All 30 teams ranked

E / A / M means ESPN / The Athletic / MLB.com. Movement compares this composite with the previous published composite through Aug. 30. Records, last-10 results, streaks, run differential, and expected records come from the current MLB standings snapshot. 1

Rank	Team	E / A / M	Record / L10 / streak	RD / X-W/L	Move	September read
1	Milwaukee Brewers	1 / 1.0 / 1 2 3 4	88-56 / 5-5 / L2 1	+168 / 89-55 1	—	Every editorial list keeps Milwaukee first. The Brewers also lead the league in record, expected wins, and run differential.
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	2 / 2.8 / 3 2 3 4	86-57 / 6-4 / W4 1	+152 / 87-56 1	—	Los Angeles stays second across the composite. FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 100% playoff probability and a 27.9% World Series probability, the highest in the model.
3	Atlanta Braves	3 / 2.8 / 2 2 3 4	85-58 / 7-3 / W1 1	+120 / 84-59 1	—	Atlanta ties Los Angeles in average rank and takes third on its stronger current record. The Braves' 7-3 last 10 sets up a direct NL East test against Philadelphia.
4	Tampa Bay Rays	4 / 3.8 / 4 2 3 4	85-58 / 6-4 / L1 1	+47 / 76-67 1	▲1	Tampa Bay owns the best AL record, and the composite now places the Rays fourth. FanGraphs still projects a 100% playoff chance, while the 76-67 expected record leaves less margin than the ledger suggests.
5	Chicago Cubs	5 / 6.0 / 5 2 3 4	81-63 / 5-5 / L1 1	+132 / 84-60 1	▼1	The Cubs fall one place after a 5-5 stretch, although their +132 run differential and 84-60 expected record remain elite. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads FanGraphs WAR at 9.6.
6	New York Yankees	6 / 5.0 / 6 2 3 4	81-62 / 6-4 / L1 1	+117 / 84-59 1	—	New York's run profile supports sixth place. Aaron Judge's live-pitching work this week gives the Yankees a possible lineup boost, while Trent Grisham's hamstring strain removes outfield depth.
7	Philadelphia Phillies	7 / 7.0 / 7 2 3 4	80-63 / 7-3 / L1 1	+34 / 75-68 1	—	Philadelphia's 7-3 run keeps the club seventh. The Braves lead the NL East by five games, so the current series carries division and playoff-bye stakes.
8	Boston Red Sox	8 / 8.0 / 8 2 3 4	79-65 / 6-4 / W4 1	+86 / 81-63 1	—	Boston's fourth straight win and 81-63 expected record hold the Red Sox in eighth. Sonny Gray's seven shutout innings over Baltimore added rotation evidence to the case.
9	Chicago White Sox	10 / 8.8 / 9 2 3 4	75-68 / 5-5 / W1 1	+49 / 76-67 1	▲1	Chicago rises into ninth behind a near-even record and a slightly stronger average rank than San Diego. The White Sox lead the AL Central by 2.5 games.
10	San Diego Padres	9 / 11.0 / 10 2 3 4	75-68 / 4-6 / W1 1	+8 / 72-71 1	▼1	San Diego slips behind Chicago as its 4-6 recent form meets a +8 run differential. FanGraphs gives the Padres a 43.2% playoff probability, with Arizona still within reach.
11	Arizona Diamondbacks	11 / 10.0 / 11 2 3 4	76-68 / 5-5 / W2 1	-1 / 72-72 1	—	Arizona's 76-68 record keeps the Diamondbacks above San Diego, even with a nearly neutral run differential. The season-ending Padres series will decide the tiebreaker if the race stays level.
12	Cleveland Guardians	12 / 12.8 / 14 2 3 4	73-71 / 5-5 / W1 1	-14 / 70-74 1	—	Cleveland stays 12th as ESPN and The Athletic carry the Guardians above MLB.com's mark. FanGraphs gives Cleveland a 56.2% playoff probability and a .530 ROS win rate.
13	Houston Astros	13 / 13.8 / 12 2 3 4	73-71 / 6-4 / L2 1	-38 / 68-76 1	▲1	Houston moves ahead of Cleveland on the tie-break sequence and holds the AL West lead. The negative run profile keeps the division race open despite a 79.4% FanGraphs playoff probability.
14	Miami Marlins	15 / 13.0 / 16 2 3 4	72-72 / 4-6 / W1 1	+15 / 74-70 1	▼1	Miami falls one place after a 4-6 stretch, although the Marlins' 74-70 expected record gives them a stronger run-based profile than their .500 record.
15	Toronto Blue Jays	17 / 15.8 / 13 2 3 4	72-72 / 7-3 / L1 1	-38 / 68-76 1	▲2	Toronto makes the biggest upward move among teams above 20th. The Blue Jays have gone 7-3 over their last 10, and MLB.com notes a schedule with zero remaining games against winning teams.
16	Baltimore Orioles	14 / 14.8 / 18 2 3 4	69-75 / 4-6 / L6 1	-29 / 69-75 1	▲2	Baltimore's two-place rise comes from the source spread and the club's proximity to the AL Wild Card race. The six-game losing streak now cuts against that case, and Luis Robert Jr.'s hamstring injury removes another middle-order option.
17	Texas Rangers	16 / 18.3 / 17 2 3 4	71-73 / 5-5 / W1 1	-44 / 67-77 1	▼1	Texas gains a place over St. Louis on the current record tie-break, but the Rangers remain below .500 with a -44 run differential. Nathan Eovaldi's throwing program could help the September rotation.
18	St. Louis Cardinals	19 / 17.8 / 15 2 3 4	72-72 / 6-4 / W1 1	-9 / 71-73 1	▼3	St. Louis takes the largest fall in the middle tier. The Cardinals' 6-4 recent form helps, while a -9 run differential, a 71-73 expected record, and pitching injuries keep the ceiling limited.
19	Pittsburgh Pirates	18 / 18.0 / 19 2 3 4	71-73 / 6-4 / W1 1	+26 / 75-69 1	▲1	Pittsburgh's positive run profile remains one of the board's clearest underperformance cases. The Pirates are 71-73, but their 75-69 expected record gives the offense and defense a better look than the ledger.
20	Minnesota Twins	20 / 21.3 / 21 2 3 4	68-75 / 4-6 / L1 1	-48 / 67-76 1	▲2	Minnesota rises as Joe Ryan nears a return and the composite rewards a narrow source spread. The Twins remain seven games behind Chicago in the AL Central.
21	Seattle Mariners	22 / 21.8 / 20 2 3 4	67-77 / 3-7 / W1 1	-71 / 64-80 1	▼2	Seattle's 3-7 stretch and -71 run differential pull the Mariners down two places. FanGraphs still gives Seattle a .590 ROS W% because the remaining schedule is favorable, but the playoff probability is only 6.4%.
22	Washington Nationals	21 / 21.5 / 23 2 3 4	67-78 / 5-5 / L4 1	+9 / 73-72 1	▲1	Washington's 73-72 expected record is far better than its 67-78 actual mark. The Nationals stay in the lower tier because the six-game gap between those records has produced a 19-game deficit in the standings.
23	Detroit Tigers	23 / 22.8 / 22 2 3 4	65-78 / 3-7 / L1 1	+50 / 77-66 1	▼2	Detroit owns the largest record-to-run-profile gap in the league. The Tigers are 65-78 with a 77-66 expected record, while FanGraphs gives them a 0.1% playoff probability.
24	Cincinnati Reds	24 / 23.5 / 24 2 3 4	69-74 / 7-3 / W2 1	-105 / 61-82 1	▲1	Cincinnati's 7-3 last 10 earns a one-place rise, even as the -105 run differential remains the weakest among teams above 25th. Sal Stewart's rookie season gives the Reds a clear lineup centerpiece.
25	New York Mets	25 / 25.0 / 25 2 3 4	65-78 / 5-5 / W1 1	-48 / 66-77 1	▼1	The Mets hold 25th across all three editorial lists. Juan Soto remains the headline talent, while the club's 0% FanGraphs playoff probability shifts attention toward the next roster cycle.
26	Kansas City Royals	26 / 25.3 / 26 2 3 4	64-80 / 5-5 / W1 1	-88 / 63-81 1	—	Kansas City stays 26th despite a strong late-season run. Jac Caglianone's Grade 1 flexor strain interrupts a breakout season, and FanGraphs projects a 0% playoff chance.
27	San Francisco Giants	27 / 27.0 / 27 2 3 4	59-85 / 4-6 / L1 1	-75 / 64-80 1	—	The Giants receive the same rank from every editorial list. Rafael Devers leads the club with 32 home runs, and rookie Bryce Eldridge gives San Francisco a second left-handed power bat for 2027.
28	Colorado Rockies	28 / 28.8 / 29 2 3 4	55-88 / 3-7 / L1 1	-140 / 59-84 1	▲1	Colorado moves ahead of the Athletics on the composite average. The Rockies still carry a -140 run differential, while TJ Rumfield and Hunter Goodman form a young offensive base.
29	Athletics	29 / 29.0 / 28 2 3 4	57-87 / 4-6 / L1 1	-188 / 55-89 1	▲1	The Athletics rise one place because MLB.com ranks them 28th, ahead of the other lists. The -188 run differential remains the league's largest deficit, and the team has five regulars on the injured list for the season.
30	Los Angeles Angels	30 / 29.3 / 30 2 3 4	54-89 / 2-8 / L1 1	-77 / 63-80 1	▼2	Los Angeles falls to last after a 2-8 run and a 54-89 record. The Angels' 63-80 expected record offers a small run-based counterpoint, while FanGraphs gives the club a 0% playoff probability.

The moves that changed the board

Toronto gets the schedule it needs

Toronto is the week's clearest upward story. The Blue Jays went 7-3 over their last 10 games, moved from 17th to 15th, and sit at .500 after a season spent below expectations. MLB.com gives Toronto a remaining schedule made up of opponents without winning records, an advantage that gives the Blue Jays a path back into the AL Wild Card race. 1 4

The run profile still asks for caution. Toronto has scored 38 fewer runs than it has allowed, and MLB's expected record is 68-76. FanGraphs projects 81.4-80.6 with a .524 ROS W%, which gives the Blue Jays a plausible September climb and a 38.4% playoff probability. 1 6

Baltimore's rise meets a six-game slide

Baltimore also rises two places, helped by ESPN's 14th ranking and The Athletic's 14.8 average. The Orioles remain close enough to the AL Wild Card race to draw support from the editorial lists, and ESPN notes that the club added Luis Robert Jr. after selling Taylor Ward, Adley Rutschman, and Dean Kremer at the deadline. 2 3

The current standings push against the rise. Baltimore is 69-75 with a six-game losing streak, a -29 run differential, and a 2.7% FanGraphs playoff probability. Luis Robert Jr. then went on the injured list with left hamstring discomfort, leaving the Orioles to chase the race with a thinner lineup. 1 6 8

Seattle still has a projection case

Seattle's two-place fall comes from the past week rather than from the rest-of-season model. The Mariners went 3-7 over their last 10 and carry a -71 run differential. MLB.com describes a club whose stars have underperformed, including Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, and Andrés Muñoz. 1 4

FanGraphs gives Seattle a .590 ROS W%, the best mark among the AL West teams, because the remaining schedule is favorable. The same model gives Seattle only a 6.4% playoff probability after the 67-77 start. Seattle therefore enters the week as a projection-versus-record test: the schedule can help, but the standings leave very little time. 6

St. Louis loses the benefit of the doubt

St. Louis drops three places, the largest fall in the middle of the table. The Cardinals remain 6-4 over their last 10, yet their season profile has flattened to 72-72 with a -9 run differential and a 71-73 expected record. 1

Injuries have made the pitching development question harder. Masyn Winn is still working through a fractured left thumb, and JJ Wetherholt is on the injured list with right-wrist tendinitis. FanGraphs projects St. Louis at 80.9-81.1 with a 1.8% playoff probability. 6 8

The top five still separate into different shapes

Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta occupy the top three in every current editorial list. Tampa Bay has the American League's best record, while Chicago has the strongest run profile among the teams outside the top three. The result is a top five built from different evidence: Milwaukee has the broadest season control, Los Angeles has the strongest title model, Atlanta has the hottest current record, Tampa Bay has the best AL ledger, and Chicago has the largest offensive-season signal from Crow-Armstrong. 1 2 3 4 7

Analytics check

FanGraphs' playoff model supports the top of the composite. The Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox each have at least a 99.0% playoff probability, with the Dodgers at 27.9% to win the World Series, Milwaukee at 11.5%, Tampa Bay at 9.1%, New York at 8.9%, Philadelphia at 7.2%, and Atlanta at 6.9%. 6

The AL Central remains the model's most interesting disagreement. Chicago has an 88.0% playoff probability and a 70.8% division probability. Cleveland sits at 56.2% to make the playoffs, while Detroit has a 0.1% chance despite a 77-66 expected record and a +50 run differential. The model is weighing the Tigers' 65-78 record and remaining path more heavily than the season run totals. 1 6

FanGraphs' individual leaderboard keeps Crow-Armstrong at the top with 9.6 WAR. Ohtani ranks second at 6.8, Bobby Witt Jr. third at 6.5, Yordan Alvarez fourth at 6.0, and Cristopher Sánchez fifth at 5.9. Misiorowski leads Milwaukee's group at 5.6 WAR, while Chris Sale leads Atlanta at 5.4. 7

The FanGraphs ordinal list adds a useful recent-form check even though its Aug. 24–30 window sits before this issue's Sept. 1–7 window. That list lifted Atlanta six places on Elo movement, placed Kansas City 18th after a hot run, and marked Seattle 21st after a cold stretch. The current composite carries the same broad warning for Seattle and a smaller version of the late Kansas City surge. 5

Injury watch

Dodgers — Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani has been held out as a hitter while the Dodgers evaluate his left knee, right biceps, and neck issues. Edwin Díaz began a Triple-A rehab assignment, and Roki Sasaki could return after Sept. 11 if his finger responds well. 8
Yankees — Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham: Judge is scheduled to face live pitching as he works toward a return during the Sept. 8–13 homestand. Grisham went on the injured list with a right hamstring strain that could keep him out for the rest of the regular season. 8
Red Sox — Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck: Crochet threw off a mound Sept. 4 after left shoulder inflammation. Houck is scheduled to begin a Double-A rehab assignment Sept. 8 after his right elbow and flexor-pronator injuries. 8
Blue Jays — Jameson Taillon and Shane Bieber: Taillon returned to the 15-day injured list with right elbow discomfort. Bieber plans to return to the mound later this week after right teres-major inflammation. 8
Guardians — Chase DeLauter: DeLauter is day-to-day with a right wrist sprain. Cleveland's playoff probability remains above 50%, so his availability matters during the club's AL Central chase. 6 8
Twins — Joe Ryan: Ryan is expected to return Sept. 7 after a mild left glute strain. Minnesota also has Byron Buxton managing a right hip issue. 8
Royals — Jac Caglianone: Caglianone is shut down from throwing for several days after a Grade 1 left flexor strain. The injury interrupts a late-season run that had given Kansas City a clearer 2027 building block. 8
Tigers — Jack Flaherty and Matt Vierling: Flaherty began a Triple-A rehab assignment Sept. 6. Vierling moved to the 60-day injured list with a left adductor strain and left heel soreness, ending his season. 8

The next seven days

The Braves and Phillies provide the week's most direct test. Atlanta visits Philadelphia while leading the division by five games, and FanGraphs gives Atlanta a 94.0% chance to win the NL East against Philadelphia's 6.0%. A Philadelphia series win would change the division margin more quickly than any isolated matchup elsewhere. 1 6

Houston visits Philadelphia next, while the Yankees host Colorado and Texas visits Seattle. Houston's -38 run differential meets a 79.4% playoff projection, and Seattle's .590 ROS W% gets an immediate test against Texas. The Rangers and Mariners are both chasing an AL West path that currently runs through Houston. 1 6

Toronto visits the Athletics, Cleveland visits Baltimore, and Minnesota visits Detroit. Those series put the week's main movement stories on the same field: Toronto's 7-3 form against an Athletics team with a -188 run differential, Cleveland's playoff push against Baltimore's six-game skid, and Detroit's +50 run differential against Minnesota's attempt to stay in the race. 1

Arizona hosts Kansas City, and San Diego hosts Washington. Arizona and San Diego remain separated by one game in the standings and meet in the season's final weekend, while Kansas City's 5-5 recent record gives the Diamondbacks a manageable opponent during the Wild Card chase. 1 4

The top of the board remains stable with Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. The useful questions for this week sit lower: whether Toronto's schedule can overcome its negative run profile, whether Seattle's projection can survive another poor stretch, and whether Detroit's strong run numbers can matter after the standings have pushed the Tigers out of contention.