2026-08-20 09:30｜FOMC纪要9—3分歧，黄金报4512.19美元

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-19T17:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-20T01:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "FederalReserve-AUAG-20260819-fomcminutes-1800", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "FOMC 纪要显示三名成员主张加息", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-19T18:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T18:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_release_time_utc": "2026-08-19T18:00:00Z", "meeting_date": "2026-07-28/2026-07-29", "target_range_federal_funds_rate": { "value_low": 3.5, "value_high": 3.75, "unit": "%" }, "policy_vote": { "maintain_target_range_votes": 9, "raise_target_range_votes": 3, "dissent_preference": "加息 25 个基点" }, "policy_discussion": { "participants_favoring_25bp_hike": "数名", "participants_assessing_tightening_needed_if_inflation_does_not_decline": "多数", "inflation_goal": 2, "inflation_goal_unit": "%" }, "pce_inflation_may_2026": { "headline": 4.1, "core": 3.4, "unit": "% year over year" }, "unemployment_rate_june_2026": { "value": 4.2, "unit": "%" } }, "transmission_chain": "FOMC 纪要确认 9—3 维持利率且三名成员主张加息、通胀仍高于 2%目标→政策路径的上行尾部风险被重新定价→无息 AU 与 AG 的中期机会成本上升。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续官方通胀或就业数据促使 FOMC 转向降息，或下一次政策声明下调目标利率区间，本次纪要的偏鹰派传导状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm))", "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260820-gold-0031", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货黄金报 4512.19 美元/盎司", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T00:31:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T01:07:49.276Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-20", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-20T01:08:27.922Z", "source_observation_utc": "2026-08-20T00:31:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price": 4512.19, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_description": "基本持平" }, "session_high": { "price": 4525.79, "unit": "USD/oz", "description": "highest level since June 2" }, "us_gold_futures_december": { "price": 4569.8, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": 0.6 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold": 4496.39, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta": 15.8, "delta_pct": 0.3514 } }, "transmission_chain": "长端美债收益率与美元走低→黄金持有的相对机会成本下降→现货黄金在 00:31Z 报 4512.19 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若美元和长端收益率反弹并使现货黄金回落至 4512.19 美元/盎司下方，本次窗口内的短线价格状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260820-silver-20260820", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货白银报 67.06 美元/盎司", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T01:07:49.276Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-20", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-20T01:08:27.922Z", "source_observation_date": "2026-08-20", "spot_silver": { "price": 67.06, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": 0.2 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_silver": 66.03, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta": 1.03, "delta_pct": 1.5599 } }, "transmission_chain": "长端收益率与美元走低→白银的贵金属机会成本下降且弹性高于黄金→现货白银报 67.06 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若美元或长端收益率反弹并使现货白银回落至 67.06 美元/盎司下方，本次窗口内的短线价格状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260820-fedhold-0107", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "9 月联储按兵不动概率升至 67.3%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T01:07:49.276Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-20", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-20T01:08:27.922Z", "september_2026_fed_hold_probability_pct": 67.3, "september_2026_fed_hike_probability_pct": 32.7, "unit": "%", "prior_channel_snapshot": { "september_2026_fed_hold_probability_pct": 65, "hold_change_percentage_points": 2.3, "unit": "%" } }, "transmission_chain": "9 月联储按兵不动概率由 65%升至 67.3%→市场定价中的近期加息尾部风险下降→AU 与 AG 的中期利率机会成本边际下降。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续官方通胀数据或联储表态使 9 月按兵不动概率回落至 65%以下，本次概率上修状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-hovers-near-early-june-high-lower-bond-yields-2026-08-20/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260820-yields-dollar-0125", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "30 年美债收益率报 5.1890%，美元 98.86", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T01:25:45.208Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-20", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-20T01:37:57.155Z", "source_observation_period": "亚洲早盘", "us_30_year_treasury_yield": { "value": 5.189, "unit": "%", "change_bps": -9 }, "us_10_year_treasury_yield": { "value": 4.6466, "unit": "%", "change_bps": -5 }, "dollar_index": { "value": 98.86, "unit": "index points", "description": "接近两个月半低位" }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "us_30_year_treasury_yield": 5.1942, "us_10_year_treasury_yield": 4.649, "dollar_index": 98.93, "units": "%; %; index points", "delta_30_year_percentage_points": -0.0052, "delta_10_year_percentage_points": -0.0024, "delta_dollar_index": -0.07 } }, "transmission_chain": "美国长端收益率下行且美元指数接近两个月半低位→美元计价贵金属的机会成本和汇率压力下降→AU 与 AG 获得窗口内利率因子支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "若 30 年期收益率回升至 5.1890%以上且美元指数回到 98.86 上方，本次收益率与美元缓解状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260820-oil-0125", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "布伦特报 91.92 美元/桶，WTI 报 85.81 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T01:25:45.208Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-20", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-20T01:37:57.155Z", "source_observation_period": "亚洲早盘", "brent": { "price": 91.92, "unit": "USD/barrel", "change_pct": 0.33 }, "us_west_texas_intermediate": { "price": 85.81, "unit": "USD/barrel", "prior_session_change_pct": 1 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "brent": 91.89, "wti": 86.11, "unit": "USD/barrel", "brent_delta": 0.03, "wti_delta": -0.3 }, "shipping_fact": "路透报道，周三霍尔木兹海峡航运放缓，多数船东避开该水道。" }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹航运放缓与布伦特维持 91.92 美元/桶→能源供应风险和通胀路径仍有上行变量、但 WTI 较前一频道快照回落→AU 与 AG 的净方向信号保持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若霍尔木兹通行恢复并使布伦特跌破 91.92 美元/桶，当前地缘供应风险状态失效；若油价回落且通胀预期同步走低，能源对利率路径的传导也失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-20/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查 SSGA 官方 GLD 产品页与 iShares 官方 SLV 产品页。GLD 页面给出截至 2026-08-18 的 NAV 与资产管理规模及截至 2026-08-19 的基金信息，但未给出窗口内实物持仓变动；SLV 页面给出 Ounces in Trust 491121753.00、Tonnes in Trust 15275.59，截至 2026-08-19，但没有独立的窗口内发布时间证据，未把数据日期冒充发布时间。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld)](https://ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-gold-shares-gld))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))" ] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改试 CME 官方 Gold_Stocks.xls 与 Silver_Stocks.xls 直接下载路径；两条文件请求均返回 403，未取得窗口内 registered/eligible 分项数字，未用产品页、交割通知或搜索摘要替代库存报告。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_Stocks.xls))" ] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库与库存数据", "status": "no_new_report_in_window", "attempted_route": "本轮改查上金所行情周报目录；目录最新仍为 2026 年第 31 期、发布日期 2026-08-18，对应统计区间 2026-08-10 至 2026-08-14，没有窗口内更新的周报或完整 AU/AG 出入库、库存数据行，未把上一期报告重复发为本窗口事件。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007518", "https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/18/e9d0929247964c17b1b32ad025528223.pdf" ] }, { "coverage": "SHFE 黄金白银仓单日报", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改试上期所 data/dailydata 与 data/dailydata/whbill 公开路径；两条入口均返回应用防火墙人机识别页面，未取得窗口内 AU 或 AG 仓单数字，未用入口壳或交割通知替代。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/whbill/" ] }, { "coverage": "美国财政部实际收益率（TIPS）曲线", "status": "no_new_row_in_window", "attempted_route": "本轮改查美国财政部官方 Real Yield XML 入口。feed 更新时间为 2026-08-19T15:52:03Z，早于本窗口起点 2026-08-19T17:30:00Z；最新数据行日期为 2026-08-19，5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 分别为 2.07%/2.19%/2.35%/2.72%/2.94%，因此该行不作为本窗口新发布事件。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ] } ] }