8月24日09时：13条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260821-soybean-china-unknown-sales", "title": "USDA 报告对华大豆销售 71.2 万吨并有 72 万吨未定向销售", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-21", "commodity": "soybeans", "china_sales_metric_tons": 712000, "unknown_destination_sales_metric_tons": 720000, "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "total_sales_metric_tons": 1432000, "comparison": "单次销售公告，无前值比较" }, "transmission_chain": [ "美国出口商报告 2026/2027 营销年度对华大豆销售 71.2 万吨、对未知目的地销售 72 万吨，合计 143.2 万吨。", "对华销售和未定向销售同时增加出口需求确认，短期先支撑美豆需求预期，再影响国内豆粕进口成本与远月估值。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续公告修正或取消销售，或后续周度实际装船、出口销售明显低于承诺。", "国内豆粕库存和压榨供应继续上升，需求支撑无法传到现货或基差。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-39](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-39)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-39](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-unknown-destinations-39))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "usda-us-20260820-soybean-weekly-export-sales", "title": "USDA 发布 8 月 20 日大豆及豆粕周度出口销售报告", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 100, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-20", "report_name": "Weekly Export Sales", "covered_commodities": ["soybeans", "soybean cake and meal", "soybean oil"], "data_access": "USDA 页面提供周度出口销售查询系统入口，具体分品种和目的地数据在查询系统中更新", "comparison": "定期报告发布，无单一汇总数值" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA 按周发布覆盖大豆、豆粕和豆油的出口销售报告，并提供按品种和目的地查询的原始系统。", "该定期数据是海外需求和美豆出口节奏的核验入口，后续分品种数值将影响豆粕需求预期与成本传导。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续查询数据被官方修订，或本期报告不包含目标营销年度的有效大豆、豆粕数据。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08202026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08202026)](https://fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08202026](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-08202026))", "[https://apps.[fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports)](https://fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/#/reports))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260821-national-crush-trade", "title": "8 月 21 日全国豆粕成交 70.02 万吨开机率 67.12%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T10:20Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-21", "national_soymeal_trade_metric_tons": 700200, "national_crush_rate_percent": 67.12, "spot_price_changes": { "Tianjin_yuan_per_ton": {"value": 3130, "change": -10}, "Shandong_yuan_per_ton": {"value": 3080, "change": -40}, "Jiangsu_yuan_per_ton": {"value": 3070, "change": -30}, "Guangdong_yuan_per_ton": {"value": 3080, "change": -40} }, "comparison": "页面称现货下调，开机率微降；成交量为当日统计" }, "transmission_chain": [ "8 月 21 日全国油厂豆粕成交 70.02 万吨，开机率微降至 67.12%；天津、山东、江苏和广东报价分别为 3130、3080、3070 和 3080 元/吨，较前值均下跌。", "高成交量与仍处高位的开机率并存，但现货下跌和供应充足信号表明近月库存压力仍在，短期对豆粕 ETF 形成偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "全国开机率持续下降且库存转为去化，或现货报价和基差同步回升。", "成交量中的远月基差成交占比上升并不能代表近月现货需求，若近月提货继续走弱则偏空链条延续。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/E7265D17960EEB00_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/E7265D17960EEB00_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/E7265D17960EEB00_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/E7265D17960EEB00_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260821-national-weekly-crush-sales", "title": "8 月 17 至 21 日豆粕周度成交 124.7 万吨增 64.77 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T10:22Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 2, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "period": "2026-08-17 至 2026-08-21", "national_weekly_trade_metric_tons": 1247000, "weekly_change_metric_tons": 647700, "weekly_average_price_yuan_per_ton": 3154, "regional_increases_metric_tons": { "East_China": 350600, "Guangdong": 189000, "Guangxi": 136000, "Jiangxi": 39000, "Shandong": 6000 }, "comparison": "较上周增加 64.77 万吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "8 月 17 日至 21 日全国豆粕周度成交 124.7 万吨，较上周增加 64.77 万吨，周度成交均价 3154 元/吨；华东、广东、广西和江西增量最明显。", "周度成交放量显示下游阶段性锁价或补库需求增强，若订单转化为提货，将减轻现货供应压力并支撑豆粕 ETF 的需求端预期。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "周度提货量继续下降，或成交增量主要停留在远月基差而未转化为实际提货。", "后续周度成交回落至上周附近，或油厂库存继续累积。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/119241A096D3A1B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/119241A096D3A1B0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/119241A096D3A1B0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/119241A096D3A1B0_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260821-national-weekly-pickup", "title": "8 月 17 至 21 日豆粕周度提货 101.94 万吨减 1.07 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T10:21Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "period": "2026-08-17 至 2026-08-21", "national_weekly_pickup_metric_tons": 1019400, "weekly_change_metric_tons": -10700, "regional_changes_metric_tons": { "North_China": 5700, "Shandong": 13000, "Northeast": -21800, "Guangxi": -8100 }, "comparison": "较上周减少 1.07 万吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "8 月 17 日至 21 日全国油厂豆粕提货量 101.94 万吨，较上周减少 1.07 万吨；华北和山东增加，东北、广西等地下降。", "周度提货弱于上周而区域分化，说明成交放量尚未完全转化为现货消化，短期仍可能增加库存和近月供应压力。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下一周全国提货量转为明显增加并带动库存去化。", "华东、广东等主要消费区提货回升，抵消东北和广西的下降。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/3D1BAB57B2C8A895_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/3D1BAB57B2C8A895_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/3D1BAB57B2C8A895_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082118/3D1BAB57B2C8A895_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-two-lakes-morning-report", "title": "两湖豆粕 3180 至 3190 元成交 10100 吨开机 76%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:45Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_spot_yuan_per_ton": { "Wuhan": [3180, 3190], "Yueyang": 3150 }, "previous_trading_day_total_trade_metric_tons": 10100, "crush_rate_percent": 76, "comparison": "页面称上个交易日现货价格下跌" }, "transmission_chain": [ "两湖上个交易日现货价格下跌，武汉报 3180 至 3190 元/吨、岳阳 3150 元/吨，油厂成交 10100 吨，开机率 76%。", "区域现货走弱且开机率较高，供应端压力暂未缓解；成交量提供一定需求支撑，但不足以改变短线偏弱信号。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖现货止跌回升并伴随提货增加，或开机率明显下调。", "后续区域库存下降且基差走强。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/F113E978A8EA892B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/F113E978A8EA892B_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/F113E978A8EA892B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/F113E978A8EA892B_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-chuanyu-morning-report", "title": "川渝豆粕 3140 至 3220 元开机率 63%压榨 1.43 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:50Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_spot_range_yuan_per_ton": [3140, 3220], "previous_trading_day_spot_change": "下跌", "crush_rate_percent": 63, "daily_crush_metric_tons": 14300, "inventory_change": "库存增加", "comparison": "页面称川渝油厂开机持稳" }, "transmission_chain": [ "川渝上个交易日豆粕现货为 3140 至 3220 元/吨，油厂开机率 63%，压榨量 1.43 万吨/日，页面同时称库存增加。", "开机持稳与库存增加叠加现货下跌，说明区域短期供应消化偏慢，对豆粕 ETF 形成近月偏空约束。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "区域开机率下降并带动库存去化，或终端补库使现货和基差回升。", "后续压榨量下降到不足以满足区域需求时，供应压力判断失效。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/C20B38F4C4E3FBAB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/C20B38F4C4E3FBAB_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/C20B38F4C4E3FBAB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/C20B38F4C4E3FBAB_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-eastchina-morning-report", "title": "华东油厂开工率 82.67%开机量 8.92 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:45Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_crush_rate_percent": 82.67, "previous_trading_day_crush_metric_tons": 89200, "operating_status": "多家油厂维持高位开机", "comparison": "区域开工率为上一交易日统计，页面称维持高位" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华东上一交易日油厂开工率 82.67%，开机量 8.92 万吨，多家油厂维持高位开机。", "华东是豆粕成交和提货的重要区域，高位压榨若未被需求同步吸收，将增加现货供应和库存压力，偏空影响主要落在近月。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东开机率明显回落并伴随提货增加、库存去化。", "现货基差持续走强，表明高开机被需求充分消化。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/7A3703FBC17B45BE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/7A3703FBC17B45BE_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/7A3703FBC17B45BE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/7A3703FBC17B45BE_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-shandong-morning-report", "title": "山东 43%豆粕 3070 至 3080 元成交 3.5 万吨开机 70.1%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:44Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_spot_yuan_per_ton": { "Rizhao": 3070, "Qingdao": 3080 }, "spot_change": "下跌", "main_crush_trade_metric_tons": 35000, "spot_trade_metric_tons": 5000, "forward_trade_metric_tons": 30000, "daily_crush_metric_tons": 60500, "crush_rate_percent": 70.1, "national_share_percent": 17.38, "comparison": "页面称现货下跌，主流成交价 3110 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "山东 43%豆粕现货下跌至日照 3070 元/吨、青岛 3080 元/吨；油厂总成交 3.5 万吨，其中现货 0.5 万吨、远月 3 万吨，日度压榨 6.05 万吨，开机率 70.1%。", "现货下跌和高压榨增加近月供应压力，远月成交占比较高则更多反映远期锁价，不能直接等同于现货去库。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "现货成交占比上升并带动区域库存下降。", "山东开机率回落，或现货价格和基差同步回升。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/49B50ACA3D499354_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/49B50ACA3D499354_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/49B50ACA3D499354_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/49B50ACA3D499354_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-huabei-morning-report", "title": "华北豆粕预期 3130 至 3190 元开机率 78.18%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:43Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 87, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_week_spot_range_yuan_per_ton": [3140, 3200], "today_expected_spot_range_yuan_per_ton": [3130, 3190], "crush_rate_percent": 78.18, "previous_workday_trade_metric_tons": 5000, "inventory_status": "库存累库且催提压力大", "comparison": "预期区间较上周现货区间下移" }, "transmission_chain": [ "华北上周现货价格为 3140 至 3200 元/吨，报告预期今日运行区间为 3130 至 3190 元/吨；油厂开机率 78.18%，库存累库且催提压力大，上一工作日成交 5000 吨。", "高开机和累库将现货压力传给基差，若下游采购仍清淡，区域现货偏弱会压制豆粕 ETF 近月表现。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下游采购明显放量并使库存转为去化。", "实际现货价格不再按预期下移，且开机率回落或基差走强。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/71CCB360BEE8A6DD_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/71CCB360BEE8A6DD_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/71CCB360BEE8A6DD_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/71CCB360BEE8A6DD_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-northeast-morning-report", "title": "东北豆粕成交 1.3 万吨成交价 3200 至 3250 元开机 62.3%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:43Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_trade_metric_tons": 13000, "previous_trading_day_trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [3200, 3250], "crush_rate_percent": 62.3, "comparison": "页面提供成交和开机率，未给出区域现货较前日绝对变动" }, "transmission_chain": [ "东北前一日油厂成交 1.3 万吨，成交价 3200 至 3250 元/吨，开机率 62.30%。", "成交提供需求支撑，开机率低于华东和华北的高位水平；在未取得区域现货较前日变动的情况下，供需信号暂定中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "区域现货出现明确大幅下跌，或开机率和库存同步上升。", "后续成交和提货明显下降。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BFB854C44651538B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BFB854C44651538B_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BFB854C44651538B_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BFB854C44651538B_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-guangdong-morning-report", "title": "广东豆粕 3080 至 3150 元成交 21.4 万吨现货下调", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:42Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "previous_trading_day_spot_yuan_per_ton": { "Dongguan": [3080, 3110], "Zhanjiang": [3100, 3150] }, "spot_change": "下调", "total_trade_metric_tons": 214000, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [3090, 3100], "comparison": "页面称国内库存持续累积，今日预期震荡偏弱" }, "transmission_chain": [ "广东上一交易日东莞豆粕 3080 至 3110 元/吨、湛江 3100 至 3150 元/吨，现货下调；油厂总成交 21.4 万吨，成交价 3090 至 3100 元/吨。", "成交量很高但现货仍下调，且报告提示库存持续累积，说明成交尚未完全转化为去库，短期供给压力仍偏强。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东提货放量并带动库存去化，现货和基差同步走强。", "后续成交量下降但价格不再下跌，表明供应压力边际缓解。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/1305B11E26335B16_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/1305B11E26335B16_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/1305B11E26335B16_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/1305B11E26335B16_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260824-guangxi-yungui-morning-report", "title": "广西云贵豆粕现货下跌 10 元昆明成交价 3220 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:40Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-24", "kunming_yihai_trade_price_yuan_per_ton": 3220, "kunming_yihai_change_yuan_per_ton": -10, "guangxi_forward_trade_metric_tons": 100000, "guangxi_crush_rate_percent": 45, "spot_trade_status": "广西油厂现货无成交", "comparison": "昆明益海成交价较前值下跌 10 元/吨" }, "transmission_chain": [ "云南昆明益海主流成交价 3220 元/吨，较前值下跌 10 元/吨；广西现货无成交但远月成交 10 万吨，广西开机率升至约 45%。", "现货下跌、无现货成交与开机率上升共同指向区域近月承压，远月成交只能部分缓和需求端压力。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西现货成交恢复并带动提货、库存去化。", "区域开机率回落，或昆明现货价格和基差止跌回升。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BC77C18F9243D4D8_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BC77C18F9243D4D8_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BC77C18F9243D4D8_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082408/BC77C18F9243D4D8_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]