2026-08-13 01:30|金价更新至4436.99美元,收益率回落

2026-08-13 01:30|金价更新至4436.99美元,收益率回落

覆盖北京时间2026年8月12日22:30至2026年8月13日01:30,记录金价、美元与美债收益率、油市供需及中东航运风险的可核验增量,并列出ETF、库存仓单和实际收益率缺口。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-13 01:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-12T14:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-12T17:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260812-gold-market-update", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "Reuters 更新金价 4436.99 美元/盎司", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:41:44.487Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:41:44.487Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4436.99, "spot_gold_change_percent": 1.61, "comparison_prior_issue_spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4428.00, "comparison_change_usd_per_ounce": 8.99, "source_context": "Reuters 全球市场更新稿记录现货黄金上涨 1.61%至 4436.99 美元/盎司;上一期已记录的同一页面更新值为 4428.00 美元/盎司。" }, "transmission_chain": "美国 7 月 CPI 未超预期→加息押注回落并削弱美元与收益率压力→AU 现货报 4436.99 美元/盎司", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国通胀或就业数据重新推高加息定价,或现货金回落并低于本次更新前的 4428.00 美元/盎司时,本次短线方向分失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-yield-dollar-update", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "10 年美债收益率降至 4.666%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:41:44.487Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:41:44.487Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "ten_year_treasury_yield_percent": 4.666, "ten_year_change_basis_points": -1.81, "usd_index": 99.73, "usd_index_change_percent": -0.08, "comparison_prior_issue_ten_year_treasury_yield_percent": 4.652, "comparison_change_basis_points": 1.4, "comparison_prior_issue_usd_index": 99.69, "comparison_usd_index_change": 0.04, "source_context": "Reuters 全球市场更新稿称,美国 10 年期国债收益率下降 1.81 个基点至 4.666%,美元指数下降 0.08%至 99.73;上一期已记录该页面的 10 年期收益率为 4.652%、美元指数为 99.69。" }, "transmission_chain": "10 年期收益率与美元指数同步走弱→AU 和 AG 的持有机会成本及美元计价压力减轻→贵金属短线获得利率端支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国数据推动 10 年期收益率和美元指数同时高于本次更新水平,或 9 月加息概率重新明显上升时,本次利率传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-oil-market-update", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "布伦特报 88.88 美元,WTI 报 83.31 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T16:40:13.753Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:10:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 93, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "quote_time_utc": "2026-08-12T16:10:00Z", "brent_futures_usd_per_barrel": 88.88, "wti_futures_usd_per_barrel": 83.31, "comparison_prior_issue_brent_usd_per_barrel": 88.42, "comparison_brent_change_usd_per_barrel": 0.46, "comparison_prior_issue_wti_usd_per_barrel": 82.95, "comparison_wti_change_usd_per_barrel": 0.36, "source_context": "Reuters 报道截至美国东部时间 12:10(16:10 UTC),布伦特期货跌 3 美分至 88.88 美元/桶,美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货涨 11 美分至 83.31 美元/桶;稿件称中东船只遇袭且美伊谈判陷入僵局。" }, "transmission_chain": "中东航运遇袭且美伊谈判僵局→能源供给与通胀尾部风险维持→AU 获得避险和通胀对冲支撑,AG 同时受工业需求权重约束", "invalidation_conditions": "后续航运恢复、谈判取得可核验进展并使油价回落至本次更新前水平时,本次地缘能源传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-us-crude-inventory", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "美国原油库存周增 1740 万桶", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T15:52:43.581Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T15:52:43.581Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 98, "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "reporting_week_ended": "2026-08-07", "us_crude_inventory_change_barrels": 17400000, "us_crude_inventory_total_barrels": 424400000, "us_crude_inventory_expected_change_barrels": -1400000, "us_crude_exports_barrels_per_day": 3060000, "us_crude_net_imports_change_barrels_per_day": 1770000, "cushing_inventory_change_barrels": 1600000, "gasoline_inventory_change_barrels": -1000000, "gasoline_inventory_total_barrels": 208700000, "distillate_inventory_change_barrels": -10000, "distillate_inventory_total_barrels": 107100000, "refinery_utilization_percent": 96.2, "source_context": "Reuters 转述美国能源信息署数据:截至 2026 年 8 月 7 日当周,美国战略石油储备以外原油库存增加 1740 万桶至 4.244 亿桶,路透调查预期为减少 140 万桶;原油出口降至 306 万桶/日,库欣库存增加 160 万桶。" }, "transmission_chain": "原油库存意外大增且出口降至 306 万桶/日→短线削弱能源价格的供给紧张解释,但中东航运风险仍在→AU 与 AG 的能源通胀传导暂不形成单向方向", "invalidation_conditions": "后续库存连续下降并伴随出口恢复,或中东供给中断扩大时,本次库存对能源通胀判断的中性状态失效", "source_urls": 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["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg"] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走美国财政部 TextView 定向检索与 Google 官方域检索;未取得窗口内具有可证明发布时间的实际收益率曲线详情,未把数据日期冒充窗口发布时间。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"] } ] }

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